Testing The Convergence Hypothesis for Turkey’s Tourism Markets: Evidence From Fourier Stationary Analysis

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 4, 205 - 213, 06.10.2017

Ali Eren Alper Mehmet Demiral

https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.334736

Cited By: 4

Öz

Using a dataset covering January-1996 and
December-2015 period, this study tests the convergence hypothesis for the major
tourism markets of Turkey. In this context, Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin
(KPSS) test developed through the Fourier function is employed. This test does
not lose power due to unknown number, form, and locations of structural
breaks.  Findings show that the series of
6 (Belgium, Iran, Italy, Russia, England, and Greece) out of 14 countries are
stationary, while the other 8 countries (Bulgaria, United States, Germany, Austria,
France, Netherlands, Israel, and Romania) have nonstationary series. Overall
results seem to be supporting the convergence hypothesis for the 6 countries
with stationary series revealing that it is possible to increase to number of
visitors coming to Turkey from these countries. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Convergence hypothesis, Fourier KPSS, Tourism

Türkiye’nin Turizm Piyasaları İçin Yakınsama Hipotezinin Testi: Fourier Durağanlık Analizi Bulguları

Öz

Bu çalışma,
Türkiye’nin temel turizm piyasaları için Ocak 1996-Aralık 2015 döneminde
yakınsama hipotezini test etmektedir. Bu kapsamda çalışmada, Fourier fonksiyonu
ile geliştirilen, Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) testi
kullanılmıştır. Bu test bilinmeyen sayıda, formda ve tarihteki yapısal
kırılmaların olması durumunda da gücünü kaybetmemektedir. Bulgular serilerin,
incelenen 14 ülkeden 6’sı (Belçika, İran, İtalya, Rusya, İngiltere ve
Yunanistan) için durağan, 8’i (Bulgaristan, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri,
Almanya, Avusturya, Fransa, Hollanda, İsrail ve Romanya) için ise durağan
olmadığını göstermektedir. Tüm sonuçlar, serileri durağan bulunan 6 ülke için
yakınsama hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu ve böylece bu ülkelerde uygulanacak olan
turizm politikalarıyla Türkiye ‘ye gelen turist sayısının arttırılabileceğini
ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yakınsama hipotezi, Fourier KPSS, Turizm

Kaynakça

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