EXPLANATORY POWER OF PRICE SHOCKS IN FOOD SECURITY EQUATION OF NET FOOD BUYERS IN NIGERIA
Yıl 2019,
Cilt: 12 Sayı: 1, 83 - 92, 23.01.2019
Felix Achoja
,
Daniel Okeke
Öz
In a developing
country such as Nigeria, fluctuation in macroeconomic factors can bring about
food price shocks and food insecurity. It is important to investigate whether
food price shocks have impacted the food security status of net food buying
households. This study specifically examines the effect of food price shocks on
the food security status of net food buying households in Nigeria. Secondary
data were elicited from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and NBS (National Bureau
of Statistics) for the 1995-2016 years period. In analyzing the collected data,
descriptive statistics (mean and percentage), coefficient of variation and
regression model were used. The result revealed that all macroeconomic factors
except exchange rate have a positive and significant relationship with food
price shock. The result also indicated a 64.35% variation in food price shock
with a variation of 38.07% in consumption expenditure (food security status)
over the time period. On account of this, minimum consumption expenditure was
over N1, 304 compared to the World Bank consumption expenditure per person.
Hence revealing that net buying households have extremely high cost of living
and low welfare status (food security status). On the basis of this findings.
It is recommended that the government should implement policies and regulations
that will control and stabilize those macroeconomic factors that can agitate
increases in food prices and cause food price shocks. This study had filled the
knowledge gap by providing information on the degree to which food price shocks
can affect the food security status of net food buying households in
Nigeria.
Kaynakça
- Abiodun E.O., V.O. Okoruwa, O.I.Y. Ajani. (2009). “Cross-sectional Analysis of Food Demand in the North Central, Nigeria: The Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) Approach.” China Agricultural Economic Review 1(2): 173– 193.
- Alem Y. and M. Söderbom. (2010). Household-Level Consumption in Urban Ethiopia: The Impact of Food Price Inflation and Idiosyncratic Shocks. CSAE WPS/2010-24.
- Alexander, C. and J. Wyeth. (1994). "Cointegration and Market Integration: An Application to the Indonesian Rice Market."Journal of Development Studies 30(2): 303-32.
- Alquist, R., and L. Kilian. (2010). “What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?” Journal of Applied Econometrics 25 (4): 539–73.
- Alston, J. M., K. A. Foster, and R. D. Green. (1994). “Estimating Elasticities with the Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System: Some Monte Carlo Results.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 76(2): 351-356.
- Anyawu, C. N. (1992). “President Babangida's Structural Adjustment Programme and Inflation in Nigeria.” Journal of Social Development in Africa 7(1): 5- 24.
- Anzuini, A., M. J. Lombardi, and P. Pagano. (2013). “The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Commodity Prices.”International Journal of Central Banking 9(3): 119-144.
- Ardeni, P. G. (1989). “Does the Law of One Price Really Hold for Commodity Prices?” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 71: 303-328.
- Arndt, C., R. Benfica, N. Maximiano, A.M.D. Nucifora and J.T. Thurlow. (2008). "Higher Fuel and Food Prices: Impacts and Responses for Mozambique." Agricultural Economics 39(1): 497-511.
- Attanasio, O., V. Di Maro, V. Lechene, and D. Phillips. (2013). “Welfare Consequence of Increases in Food Prices in Rural Mexico and Colombia”. Journal of Development Economics 104: 136-151
- Attfield, C. L. F. (2004). A Comparison of the Translog and Almost Ideal Demand Models Discussion Paper No. 04/546.Department of Economics, University of Bristol BSS ITN UK.
- Badolo F. and F. Traore. (2012). Impact of Rising World Rice Prices on Poverty and Inequality in Burkina Faso. CERDI, Etudes et Documents, E 2012.22.
- Baffes, J. (1991). “Some Further Evidence on the Law of One Price.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 4:21-37.
- Bakhshoodeh M. and M Piroozirad. (2003). Effects of Rice Price Change on Welfare: Evidence from Households in Fars Province, Iran. Paper for presentation at the International Conference on Policy Modeling, EcoMod2003, Istanbul, 3-5 July 2003.
- Ballino, C. (1990). “A Generalized Version of the Almost Ideal and Translog Demand Systems.”Economics Letters 34: 127-129
- Baltzer, K. (2013). International to Domestic Price Transmission in Fourteen Developing Countries during the 2007/8 Food Crisis. WIDER Working Paper 2013/031. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
- Banks, J., R. Blundell, and A. Lewbel. (1997). “Quadratic Engle Curves and Consumer Demand.” Review of Economics and Statistics 79: 527-539.
- Barsky, R. B. and L. Kilian. (2004). “Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 18 (4): 115–34.
- Bibi, S., J. Cockburn, M. Coulibaly, and L. Tiberti. (2009). The Impact of the Increase in Food Prices on Child Poverty and the Policy Response in Mali. Innocenti Working Papers, United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) ISSN: 1014-7837.
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- CBN (2013). Quarterly Statistical Bulletin, 2 (1) March 2013– Tables. CBN, Abuja, Nigeria. Available at: http://cenbank.org/documents/Statbulletin.asp.
- CBN (Central Bank of Nigeria). (2006). Statistical Bulletin 16(2), CBN, Abuja, Nigeria.
- Conforti. (2004). Price Transmission in selected Agricultural Markets. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper 7. Rome: FAO.
- Cornia G. A. and L. Deotti. (2008). Millet Prices, Public Policy and Child Malnutrition: The Case of Niger in 2005. Innocenti Working Papers, United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) ISSN: 1014-7837.
- Cudjoe, G., C. Breisinger, and X. Diao. (2008). Local Impacts of a Global Crisis: Food Price Transmission and Poverty Impacts in Ghana. IFPRI Discussion Paper 00842. Washington DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.
- Dabla-Norris, E. and H. Floerkemeier. (2006). Transmission Mechanisms of Monetary Policy in Armenia: Evidence from VAR Analysis.IMF Working Paper, WP/06/248.
- Deaton, A. (1989). “Rice Prices and Income Distribution in Thailand: A Non-parametric Analysis.” Economic Journal 99(395): 1–37.
- Deaton, A. S. and J. Muellbauer. (1980). “An Almost Ideal Demand System.” American Economic Review 70: 312-326.
- Easterly, W. (2005). “What Did Structural Adjustment Adjust?: The Association of Policies and Growth with Repeated IMF and World Bank Adjustment Loans.” Journal of Development Economics 76 (1).1–22. .
- FAO. (2014). Food Balance Sheet – Nigeria, FAOSTAT (Online Statistical database of the Food and Agricultural Organization of United Nations (FAO), Rome). Available at: http://faostat.fao.org/site/368/DesktopDefault.aspx?PageID=368#ancor.
- Ferreira, F. H. G., A. Fruttero, and P. Leite. (2011). Rising Food Prices and Household Welfare: Evidence from Brazil in 2008. ECINEQ 2011–200 June 2011.
- Frankel, J. A. (1986). “Expectations and Commodity Price Dynamics: The Overshooting Model.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 68 (2): 344–48.
- Frankel, J. A. (2007). “The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices.” In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, ed. Campbell, J., University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
- Fulginiti, L. E., Perrin, R.K., and Yu, B. (2004). “Institutions and Agricultural Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Agricultural Economics 31(2): 169-180.
- Gardner, B. and K. Brooks.(1994). “Retail Food Prices and Market Integration in Russia.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 76(3): 641-46.
- Gladwin, C. H. (1991). Structural Adjustment and African Women Farmers. University of Florida Press.
- Goletti, F. and S. Babu. (1994). “Market Liberalization and Integration of Maize Markets in Malawi.” Agricultural Economics 11: 311-324.
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- Hasan S. A. (2013). The Impact of a Large Rice Price Increase on Welfare and Poverty in Bangladesh. Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University.
- Idrees, M., M. Asma, and Z. Khalid. (2012). “Welfare Impacts of Food Price Inflation in Pakistan.” International Food Research Journal 19(4): 1517-1531.
- Im, K., M. Pesaran, and Y. Shin. (2003). “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels.” Journal of Econometrics 115: 53–74.
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EXPLANATORY POWER OF PRICE SHOCKS IN FOOD SECURITY EQUATION OF NET FOOD BUYERS IN NIGERIA
Yıl 2019,
Cilt: 12 Sayı: 1, 83 - 92, 23.01.2019
Felix Achoja
,
Daniel Okeke
Öz
In a developing country such as Nigeria, fluctuation in macroeconomic factors can bring about food price shocks and food insecurity. It is important to investigate whether food price shocks have impacted the food security status of net food buying households. This study specifically examines the effect of food price shocks on the food security status of net food buying households in Nigeria. Secondary data were elicited from Central Bank of Nigeria and National Bureau of Statistics for the 1995-2016 years period. In analyzing the collected data, descriptive statistics (mean and percentage), coefficient of variation and regression model were used. The result revealed that all macroeconomic factors except exchange rate have a positive and significant relationship with food price shock. The result also indicated a 64.35% variation in food price shock with a variation of 38.07% in consumption expenditure (food security status) over the time period. On account of this, minimum consumption expenditure was over N1,304 compared to the World Bank consumption expenditure per person. Hence revealing that net buying households have extremely high cost of living and low welfare status (food security status). On the basis of this findings. It is recommended that the government should implement policies and regulations that will control and stabilize those macroeconomic factors that can agitate increases in food prices and cause food price shocks. This study had filled the knowledge gap by providing information on the degree to which food price shocks can affect the food security status of net food buying households in Nigeria.
Kaynakça
- Abiodun E.O., V.O. Okoruwa, O.I.Y. Ajani. (2009). “Cross-sectional Analysis of Food Demand in the North Central, Nigeria: The Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) Approach.” China Agricultural Economic Review 1(2): 173– 193.
- Alem Y. and M. Söderbom. (2010). Household-Level Consumption in Urban Ethiopia: The Impact of Food Price Inflation and Idiosyncratic Shocks. CSAE WPS/2010-24.
- Alexander, C. and J. Wyeth. (1994). "Cointegration and Market Integration: An Application to the Indonesian Rice Market."Journal of Development Studies 30(2): 303-32.
- Alquist, R., and L. Kilian. (2010). “What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?” Journal of Applied Econometrics 25 (4): 539–73.
- Alston, J. M., K. A. Foster, and R. D. Green. (1994). “Estimating Elasticities with the Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System: Some Monte Carlo Results.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 76(2): 351-356.
- Anyawu, C. N. (1992). “President Babangida's Structural Adjustment Programme and Inflation in Nigeria.” Journal of Social Development in Africa 7(1): 5- 24.
- Anzuini, A., M. J. Lombardi, and P. Pagano. (2013). “The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Commodity Prices.”International Journal of Central Banking 9(3): 119-144.
- Ardeni, P. G. (1989). “Does the Law of One Price Really Hold for Commodity Prices?” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 71: 303-328.
- Arndt, C., R. Benfica, N. Maximiano, A.M.D. Nucifora and J.T. Thurlow. (2008). "Higher Fuel and Food Prices: Impacts and Responses for Mozambique." Agricultural Economics 39(1): 497-511.
- Attanasio, O., V. Di Maro, V. Lechene, and D. Phillips. (2013). “Welfare Consequence of Increases in Food Prices in Rural Mexico and Colombia”. Journal of Development Economics 104: 136-151
- Attfield, C. L. F. (2004). A Comparison of the Translog and Almost Ideal Demand Models Discussion Paper No. 04/546.Department of Economics, University of Bristol BSS ITN UK.
- Badolo F. and F. Traore. (2012). Impact of Rising World Rice Prices on Poverty and Inequality in Burkina Faso. CERDI, Etudes et Documents, E 2012.22.
- Baffes, J. (1991). “Some Further Evidence on the Law of One Price.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 4:21-37.
- Bakhshoodeh M. and M Piroozirad. (2003). Effects of Rice Price Change on Welfare: Evidence from Households in Fars Province, Iran. Paper for presentation at the International Conference on Policy Modeling, EcoMod2003, Istanbul, 3-5 July 2003.
- Ballino, C. (1990). “A Generalized Version of the Almost Ideal and Translog Demand Systems.”Economics Letters 34: 127-129
- Baltzer, K. (2013). International to Domestic Price Transmission in Fourteen Developing Countries during the 2007/8 Food Crisis. WIDER Working Paper 2013/031. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
- Banks, J., R. Blundell, and A. Lewbel. (1997). “Quadratic Engle Curves and Consumer Demand.” Review of Economics and Statistics 79: 527-539.
- Barsky, R. B. and L. Kilian. (2004). “Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 18 (4): 115–34.
- Bibi, S., J. Cockburn, M. Coulibaly, and L. Tiberti. (2009). The Impact of the Increase in Food Prices on Child Poverty and the Policy Response in Mali. Innocenti Working Papers, United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) ISSN: 1014-7837.
- CBN (2011). Monetary Policy, CBN, Abuja, Nigeria. Available at: http://www.cenbank.org/MonetaryPolicy/policy.asp.
- CBN (2012). 2012 Statistical Bulletin: Domestic Production, Consumption and Prices, CBN, Abuja, Nigeria. Available at: http://cenbank.org/documents/Statbulletin.asp.
- CBN (2013). Quarterly Statistical Bulletin, 2 (1) March 2013– Tables. CBN, Abuja, Nigeria. Available at: http://cenbank.org/documents/Statbulletin.asp.
- CBN (Central Bank of Nigeria). (2006). Statistical Bulletin 16(2), CBN, Abuja, Nigeria.
- Conforti. (2004). Price Transmission in selected Agricultural Markets. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper 7. Rome: FAO.
- Cornia G. A. and L. Deotti. (2008). Millet Prices, Public Policy and Child Malnutrition: The Case of Niger in 2005. Innocenti Working Papers, United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) ISSN: 1014-7837.
- Cudjoe, G., C. Breisinger, and X. Diao. (2008). Local Impacts of a Global Crisis: Food Price Transmission and Poverty Impacts in Ghana. IFPRI Discussion Paper 00842. Washington DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.
- Dabla-Norris, E. and H. Floerkemeier. (2006). Transmission Mechanisms of Monetary Policy in Armenia: Evidence from VAR Analysis.IMF Working Paper, WP/06/248.
- Deaton, A. (1989). “Rice Prices and Income Distribution in Thailand: A Non-parametric Analysis.” Economic Journal 99(395): 1–37.
- Deaton, A. S. and J. Muellbauer. (1980). “An Almost Ideal Demand System.” American Economic Review 70: 312-326.
- Easterly, W. (2005). “What Did Structural Adjustment Adjust?: The Association of Policies and Growth with Repeated IMF and World Bank Adjustment Loans.” Journal of Development Economics 76 (1).1–22. .
- FAO. (2014). Food Balance Sheet – Nigeria, FAOSTAT (Online Statistical database of the Food and Agricultural Organization of United Nations (FAO), Rome). Available at: http://faostat.fao.org/site/368/DesktopDefault.aspx?PageID=368#ancor.
- Ferreira, F. H. G., A. Fruttero, and P. Leite. (2011). Rising Food Prices and Household Welfare: Evidence from Brazil in 2008. ECINEQ 2011–200 June 2011.
- Frankel, J. A. (1986). “Expectations and Commodity Price Dynamics: The Overshooting Model.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 68 (2): 344–48.
- Frankel, J. A. (2007). “The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices.” In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, ed. Campbell, J., University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
- Fulginiti, L. E., Perrin, R.K., and Yu, B. (2004). “Institutions and Agricultural Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Agricultural Economics 31(2): 169-180.
- Gardner, B. and K. Brooks.(1994). “Retail Food Prices and Market Integration in Russia.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 76(3): 641-46.
- Gladwin, C. H. (1991). Structural Adjustment and African Women Farmers. University of Florida Press.
- Goletti, F. and S. Babu. (1994). “Market Liberalization and Integration of Maize Markets in Malawi.” Agricultural Economics 11: 311-324.
- Hamilton, J. D. (2009). “Understanding Crude Oil Prices.”Energy Journal 30(2): 179–206.
- Hasan S. A. (2013). The Impact of a Large Rice Price Increase on Welfare and Poverty in Bangladesh. Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University.
- Idrees, M., M. Asma, and Z. Khalid. (2012). “Welfare Impacts of Food Price Inflation in Pakistan.” International Food Research Journal 19(4): 1517-1531.
- Im, K., M. Pesaran, and Y. Shin. (2003). “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels.” Journal of Econometrics 115: 53–74.
- Joseph, G. and Q. Wodon. (2008). Assessing the Potential Impact on Poverty of Rising Cereals Prices: The Case of Mali. Policy Research Working Paper 4744, The World Bank Human Development Network Development Dialogue on Values and Ethics.
- Kao, C. and M-H. Chiang. (2000). “On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data.”Advances in Econometrics 15: 179-222.
- Klein, L.R. and H. Rubin. (1947). “A Constant-elasticity Index of the Cost of Living.” Review of Economic Studies 15: 84-7.
- Koivu, T. (2010). Monetary Policy, Asset Prices and Consumption in China. BOFIT Discussion Papers 18, Bank of Finland, BOFIT Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Kripalani, R. H., J. H. Oh, A. Kulkarni, S. S. Sabade, H. S. Chaudhari. (2007). South Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation Variability: Coupled Climate Model Simulations and Projections under IPCC AR4. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 90: 133-159.
- Kumar, P. (1998). Food Demand and Supply Projections for India. Agricultural Economics Policy Paper 98-01. Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi.
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