Enflasyon ile Finansal Gelişme İlişkisi: Yüksek ve Düşük Enflasyonlu Ülkeler Üzerine Ampirik Kanıtlar

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 3, 577 - 592, 15.07.2020

Sena Türkmen , Hüseyin Ağır

https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.709658

Cited By: 9

Öz

Literatürde, finansal gelişmeyi etkilediği ileri sürülen çeşitli makroekonomik değişkenler tartışılmaktadır. Enflasyon bunlardan birisidir. Bir ekonomide yüksek enflasyon en başta belirsizliğe neden olarak genellikle istikrarsız bir makroekonomik ortam ile ilişkilendirilmektedir. Belirsizlik ortamında firmalar yeni yatırımlardan kaçınarak üretimin azalmasına neden olabilmekte ve reel sektörle finansal sektör arasındaki ilişkiye engel olabilmektedir. Dahası, belirsizlik ortamı finansal aracılığın maliyetini yükselterek finansal gelişme sürecini sekteye uğratabilmektedir. Diğer taraftan yüksek enflasyon, sabit gelirliler aleyhine gelir dağılımını bozarak tasarrufların erimesine de neden olmaktadır. Bu durum yatırımlar için gerekli olan fonların azalması süreciyle finansal sistemi olumsuz etkilemektedir. Dolayısıyla konu ile ilgili ampirik literatür enflasyondaki artışın finansal gelişmeyi negatif etkilediğini, enflasyondaki azalışın da finansal gelişmeyi pozitif etkilediğini ortaya koymaktadır.
Bu çalışmanın amacı, yüksek enflasyonun finansal piyasalar üzerindeki olumsuz etkilerinden hareketle, seçilmiş yüksek ve düşük enflasyonlu ülke grubu örnekleri için ayrı ayrı enflasyon ile finansal gelişme göstergeleri arasındaki ilişkiyi, kontrol değişkenleri de kullanarak yeni nesil panel ekonometrik yöntemlerle tahmin etmektir. Elde edilen bulgular, yüksek ve düşük enflasyonlu ülke gruplarında enflasyon değişkeninin finansal gelişmeyi temsil eden göstergeleri negatif etkilediğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enflasyon, Finansal Gelişme, Panel Veri

The Relationship Between Inflation And Financial Development: Empirical Evidences on High And Low Inflation Countries

Öz

High inflation in an economy is often associated with an unstable macroeconomic environment, by causing uncertainty first and foremost. In an environment of uncertainty, firms can avoid new investments and cause a decrease in production and hinder the relationship between the real sector and the financial sector. Moreover, the uncertainty environment may hamper the financial development process by increasing the cost of financial intermediation. On the other hand, high inflation, to the detriment of the fixed income groups, causes the savings to melt by disrupting the distribution of income. This situation adversely affects the financial system due to the decrease in the funds that required for investments. Accordingly, the empirical literature on the subject reveals that the rise in inflation negatively affects financial development and the decrease in inflation positively affects financial development.
The aim of this study is to estimate the relationship between inflation and financial development separately for selected high and low inflation countries by using new generation panel econometric methods, starting from the negative effects of high inflation on financial markets. The findings indicate that the inflation variable affects the indicators representing financial development negatively in the groups of countries with high and low inflation, and this effect is more evident in countries with high inflation.. It becomes important for policymakers to take steps to reduce high inflation, which hinders financial development.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Inflation, Panel Data, Financial Development

Kaynakça

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