Döviz kuru ve döviz kuru volatilitesinin ihracat ve ithalata etkisi

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 4, 606 - 623, 01.10.2020

Nigar Alev

https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.573212

Cited By: 4

Öz

Dışa açık ve gelişmekte olan ülke ekonomileri dünya talebi, dış ticarette uygulanan tarife ve kota gibi ticaret kısıtlamalarından, döviz kurlarından ve döviz kurlarında yaşanan dalgalanmalardan büyük ölçüde etkilenmektedir. Gelişmekte olan ülke grubunda yer alan Türkiye için bu konu yaşanan döviz kuru dalgalanmalarının da etkisi ile güncel veriler kullanılmak suretiyle araştırılmak istenmiştir. Bu amaçla çalışmada iki farklı model kurulmuştur. Döviz kuru ve döviz kuru oynaklığının ihracat ve ithalat üzerindeki etkisi, 2010 Ocak-2019 Mayıs dönemine ait aylık veriler kullanılarak ARDL testi yaklaşımı ile incelenmiştir. Döviz kuru ve döviz kuru oynaklığının ihracat üzerindeki etkisinin araştırıldığı birinci modelin tahmin edilmesiyle elde edilen sonuçlar, kısa dönemde döviz kuru oynaklığının; uzun dönemde ise reel efektif döviz kurunun ihracat üzerinde istatistiki açıdan anlamlı negatif etkisinin olduğunu göstermiştir. Döviz kuru ve döviz kuru oynaklığının ithalat üzerindeki etkisinin araştırıldığı ikinci modelin tahmin edilmesiyle elde edilen sonuçlar ise döviz kuru oynaklığının kısa ve uzun dönemde ithalat üzerinde istatistiki açıdan anlamlı negatif etkisinin olduğunu; reel efektif döviz kurunun kısa dönemde ithalat üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisinin olmadığını ancak uzun dönemde negatif anlamlı etkisinin olduğunu göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İhracat, İthalat, Döviz Kuru, Volatilite

The effect of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility on export and import

Öz

The open and emerging economies are largely affected by world demand, trade restrictions such as tariffs and quotas in foreign trade, exchange rates and fluctuations in exchange rates. This issue was requested by using current data for Turkey which included in the developing countries group, with the effects of exchange rate fluctuations. For this purpose, two different models were established. The impact of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility on exports and imports were analyzed using the ARDL test approach using monthly data for the period January 2010 to May 2019. The results obtained by estimating the first model, in which the effect of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility on exports, showed that the exchange rate volatility has a significant negative effect on exports in the short term and the real effective exchange rate has a significant negative effect on exports in the long term. The results obtained by estimating the second model which investigated the effect of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility on imports showed that the exchange rate volatility has a negative effect on imports in the short and long term; real effective exchange rate has no significant effect on imports in the short term but has a significant negative effect on long term.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Export, Import, Exchange Rate

Kaynakça

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