Satınalma gücü paritesinin geçerliliği: E-7 ülkeleri örneği (1992-2022)

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 2, 343 - 356, 30.04.2024

Ecem Turgut , Okyay Uçan

https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.1384605

Cited By: 1

Öz

Uluslararası ekonomi teorilerindeki en önemli konulardan biri, satınalma gücü paritesinin döviz kuru belirleme modelleri içerisinde yer alıp almadığıdır. Bu çalışmada da özellikle E-7 (Brezilya, Çin, Endonezya, Hindistan, Meksika, Rusya, Türkiye) ülkelerinde satınalma gücü paritesinin geçerli olup olmadığının incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Çalışmada söz konusu ülkelerin 1992-2022 dönemi verilerinden yararlanılmıştır. Yapılan ekonometrik inceleme sonucunda yatay kesitin bağımlı olduğu ve homojenlik varsayımı kabul edilmiştir. Bundan dolayı değişkenlerin durağan olduğu seviyenin tespit edilmesinde Bootstrap Hadri ikinci nesil birim kök testinden yararlanılmış ve değişkenlerin birinci farkında durağan olduğu anlaşılmıştır. Bundan dolayı değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin tespit edilmesinde ikinci nesil bir eşbütünleşme testi olan ve yatay kesit bağımlılığı altında çalışan Westerlund ECM testinden yararlanılmıştır. İnceleme sonucunda nominal döviz kuru ile yurtiçi fiyat seviyesinin yurtdışı fiyat seviyesi olan oranı arasındaki ilişkinin olumlu yönde olduğu yani değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Böylelikle bu çalışmada E-7 ülkelerinde satınalma gücü paritesinin geçerli olduğu kabul edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Döviz Kuru, Satınalma Gücü Paritesi, PPP, Fiyat Seviyeleri

Validity of purchasing power parity: Example of E7 countries (1992-2022)

Öz

One of the most important issues in international economic theories is whether purchasing power parity is included in exchange rate determination models. In this study, it is aimed to examine whether purchasing power parity is valid especially in E-7 (Brazil, China, Indonesia, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey) countries. In the study, the data of the mentioned countries for the period 1992-2022 are used. As a result of the econometric analysis, the horizontal section is dependent and the homogeneity assumption is accepted. Therefore, Bootstrap Hadri second generation unit root test was used to determine the level at which the variables were stationary and it was understood that the variables were stationary at the first difference. Therefore, the Westerlund ECM test, which is a second generation cointegration test and works under cross-section dependence, was used to determine the cointegration relationship between the variables. As a result of the examination, it has been determined that the relationship between the nominal exchange rate and the ratio of the domestic price level to the foreign price level is positive, that is, there is a cointegration relationship between the variables. Thus, in this study, it is accepted that purchasing power parity is valid in E-7 countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Exchange Rate, Purchasing Power Parity, PPP, Price levels

Kaynakça

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