Kamu Borcu ve Ekonomik Büyüme Dinamiklerinin Dalgacık Analizi: 6 Avro Bölgesi Ekonomisinden Kanıt

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 4, 925 - 943, 10.10.2024

Gökhan Çobanoğulları

https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.1486346

Öz

Bu makale, avro bölgesindeki 6 ülkede (Belçika, Fransa, Yunanistan, İtalya, Portekiz ve İspanya) kamu borcu ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi 2000Ç1'den 2023Ç3'e kadar dalgacık analizi kullanarak incelemektedir. Çapraz dalgacık gücü ve dalgacık tutarlığı tahmin sonuçlarına göre, incelenen dönemde kamu borcu ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin hem kısa (0.5-2 çeyreklik frekans) hem de uzun ölçeklerde (2-4 arası çeyreklik frekans) yüksek korelasyon gösterdiği tespit edilmiştir. Her iki analiz sonucunda, farklı dönem ve frekanslar için ülkelerin sonuçları birbirinden farklı çıksa da genel olarak kamu borcu ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki negatif yönlüdür. Ayrıca, çapraz dalgacık gücü tahmin sonuçlarına göre, 2018-2022 döneminde İtalya, Yunanistan ve Fransa’da kısa dönemde yapılan borçlanmanın ekonomik büyümeyi teşvik ettiği fakat uzun dönemde ise bazı ülkelerde ekonomik büyümenin negatif etkilendiği görülmüştür. Ek olarak, Avrupa borç krizi ve korona virüs pandemi döneminde ülkelerin ortaya koyduğu kamu borç-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi birbirleri ile senkronize hareket ettiği görülmekle birlikte bu dönemde, neoklasik görüşün geçerli olduğunu ortaya konulmuştur. Sonuç olarak, özellikle borç kriz dönemlerinde, politika yapıcılarının ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz etkileyen kamu borcunu azaltmaya yönelik mali kuralları belirlemesi gerektiği ortaya çıkmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kamu borcu, Ekonomik Büyüme, Avro Bölgesi, Dalgacık Analizi.

Wavelet Analysis of Public Debt and Economic Growth Dynamics: Evidence from 6 Eurozone Economies

Öz

This paper examines the relationship between public debt and economic growth in 6 countries in the euro area (Belgium, France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) using wavelet analysis from 2000Q1 to 2023Q3. The cross- wavelet power and wavelet coherence estimation results revealed a high correlation between public debt and economic growth on both short (0.5-2 quarterly frequency) and long (2-4 quarterly frequency) scales during the examined period. Both analyses revealed that the relationship between public debt and economic growth was generally negative, even though the results varied at different frequencies and in different periods. The cross- wavelet power estimation results revealed that short-term borrowing in Italy, Greece, and France during the 2018- 2022 period stimulated economic growth, but some countries experienced negative long-term effects. In addition, it has been demonstrated that the public debt-economic growth relationship demonstrated by countries during the European debt crisis and the coronavirus pandemic period was synchronous with each other, and that the neoclassical view was valid during this period. As a result, it has become clear that, especially in times of debt crisis, policymakers should determine fiscal rules to reduce public debt, which negatively affects economic growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Public debt, Economic Growth, Eurozone, Wavelet Analysis

Kaynakça

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