The Role of Coal and Renewable Energy in Total Electricity Production: An Econometric Evaluation

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 18 Sayı: 4, 1138 - 1149, 27.10.2025

Hayriye Taşcı

Öz

This study analyzes the impact of electricity generation from coal and renewable energy sources on total electricity production in Turkey between 2000 and 2023. Using time series data, the structural relationships within energy supply are examined through the Johansen cointegration and Toda-Yamamoto causality tests. Initially, the stationarity of the series is assessed using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and KPSS tests. Then, the long-term equilibrium relationship is identified via the Johansen test. In the final stage, the causal relationships among the variables are analyzed through the Toda-Yamamoto approach. The findings reveal that both coal and renewable energy sources have statistically significant and strong effects on total electricity production. Notably, renewable energy generation demonstrates a higher causal influence compared to coal. These results indicate the necessity of designing energy policies in a multidimensional and source-based manner and offer strategic guidance for ensuring a sustainable and flexible energy supply structure.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Energy Production , Renewable Energy , Coal , Johansen Test , Toda-Yamamoto

Toplam Elektrik Üretiminde Kömür ve Yenilenebilir Enerjinin Rolü: Ekonometrik Bir Değerlendirme

Öz

Bu çalışma, 2000-2023 yılları arasında Türkiye’de kömür ve yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarından elde edilen elektrik üretiminin toplam elektrik üretimi üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmektedir. Çalışmada, zaman serisi verileri kullanılarak enerji arzındaki yapısal ilişkiler Johansen eşbütünleşme ve Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testleri ile incelenmiştir. İlk olarak Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) ve KPSS testleri aracılığıyla serilerin durağanlık düzeyleri belirlenmiş, ardından uzun dönemli denge ilişkisi Johansen testiyle tespit edilmiştir. Son aşamada, değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri Toda-Yamamoto yöntemiyle analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular hem kömür hem de yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının toplam elektrik üretimi üzerinde anlamlı ve istatistiksel olarak güçlü etkileri olduğunu göstermektedir. Özellikle yenilenebilir enerji üretiminin, kömüre kıyasla daha yüksek bir nedensellik gücüne sahip olduğu saptanmıştır. Bu sonuçlar, enerji politikalarının çok boyutlu ve kaynak temelli şekilde tasarlanması gerektiğini ortaya koymakta; sürdürülebilir ve esnek bir enerji arz yapısı için stratejik yönlendirmeler sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enerji Üretimi , Yenilenebilir Enerji , Kömür , Johansen Testi , Toda-Yamamoto

Kaynakça

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