Impact of Covid-19 Outbreak on Turkey Electricity Generation

Öz

With this study, it was aimed to analyze the change of electricity generation in Turkey depending on COVID-19 pandemic. For this purpose, analyzes of the changes in nine different electricity generation sectors besides total electricity generation were done. In addition, these analyze were also carried out on a monthly basis in order to better understand the change in total electricity generation. Trend, naive, exponential smoothing and holt linear trend methods were used for the analysis. The results were obtained by taking into account the 2020 forecast values of the method belonging to the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values obtained from these methods. According to these results, it was concluded that the COVID-19 epidemic negatively affected electricity generation from total, dam, lignite, stream, imported coal and wind and did not adversely affect electricity generation from natural gas, wind, solar, geothermal and biomass in Turkey for 2020. From the results of the analysis done for the monthly change in total electricity generation in 2020, it was seen that there was a decrease in the total generation compared to the expected in the months when there were restrictions.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Covid-19
• Electrical generation
• Forecasting
• Mean absolute percentage error

Covid-19 Salgınının Türkiye Elektrik Üretimine Etkisi

Öz

Bu çalışma ile COVID-19 salgınına bağlı olarak Türkiye'de elektrik üretim değişiminin analiz edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla toplam elektrik üretiminin yanı sıra dokuz farklı elektrik üretim sektöründeki değişimlerin analizleri yapılmıştır. Ayrıca toplam elektrik üretimindeki değişimi daha iyi anlayabilmek için bu analizler aylık olarak ta yapılmıştır. Analizler için trend, naive, exponential smoothing ve holt linear trend yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Bu yöntemlerden elde edilen ortalama mutlak yüzde hata (MAPE) ve değerlerine ait yöntemin 2020 tahmin değerleri dikkate alınarak sonuçlar elde edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlara göre 2020 yılında Türkiye’de COVID-19 salgınının toplam, baraj, linyit, akarsu, ithal kömür ve rüzgardan elektrik üretimini olumsuz etkilediği, doğalgaz, rüzgar, güneş, jeotermal ve biyokütleden elektrik üretimini olumsuz etkilemediği sonucuna varılmıştır. 2020 yılında toplam elektrik üretimindeki aylık değişim için yapılan analiz sonuçlarına göre ise kısıtlamaların olduğu aylarda toplam üretimde beklenene göre düşüş olduğu görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Covid-19
• Elektrik üretimi
• Tahmin
• Ortalama mutlak yüzde hata

Teşekkür

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