Seismic Risk, Structural Vulnerabilities, and Retrofitting Solutions: Lessons from the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake

Abstract

The 7.8 magnitude earthquake in Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye, on February 6, 2023, exposed critical infrastructure deficiencies, particularly in areas near the East Anatolian Fault Zone. This study examines geological and structural factors that intensified the damage, including soil amplification reaching 2.5 in sedimentary basins, significantly increasing ground shaking. Structural assessments show that pre-1999 buildings had over 45% failure rates due to inadequate reinforcement and shear wall deficiencies. Using probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and structural performance assessments, the effectiveness of retrofitting solutions like buckling-restrained braces (BRBs) and base isolation is evaluated. A comparative analysis with Japan, the U.S. (California), and New Zealand highlights best practices for seismic resilience. The findings emphasize the need for integrating site-specific hazard assessments into Türkiye’s seismic codes and enforcing large-scale retrofitting programs to mitigate future earthquake risks.

Keywords

• Seismic Hazard Assessment
• Structural Vulnerability Analysis
• Seismic Retrofitting Strategies
• Soil Amplification Effects
• Base Isolation and Buckling-Restrained Braces (BRBs)
• Earthquake Risk Mitigation Policies
• Kahramanmaras Earthquake

Sismik Risk, Yapısal Zafiyetler ve Güçlendirme Çözümleri: 2023 Kahramanmaraş Depreminden Çıkarılan Dersler

Öz

6 Şubat 2023’te Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye’de meydana gelen 7.8 büyüklüğündeki deprem, özellikle Doğu Anadolu Fayı’na yakın bölgelerde altyapıdaki ciddi eksiklikleri ortaya çıkarmıştır. Bu çalışma, alüvyonlu havzalarda 2.5’e varan zemin büyütmesi ile artan yer hareketi ve yapısal hasar gibi jeolojik ve yapısal faktörleri incelemektedir. Yapısal analizler, 1999 öncesi binaların yetersiz donatı ve kesme duvar eksiklikleri nedeniyle %45’in üzerinde hasar oranına sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Olasılıksal Sismik Tehlike Analizi (PSHA) ve yapısal performans değerlendirmeleri ile Burkulması Önlenmiş Çaprazlar (BRB’ler) ve taban yalıtımı gibi güçlendirme çözümlerinin etkinliği incelenmiştir. Japonya, ABD (Kaliforniya) ve Yeni Zelanda ile yapılan karşılaştırmalı analiz, sismik dayanıklılığı artırmaya yönelik en iyi uygulamaları vurgulamaktadır. Bulgular, Türkiye’de bölgeye özgü sismik tehlike değerlendirmelerinin yönetmeliklere entegre edilmesi ve geniş ölçekli güçlendirme programlarının zorunlu hale getirilmesi gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sismik Tehlike Değerlendirmesi
• Yapısal Zayıflık Analizi
• Sismik Güçlendirme Stratejileri
• Zemin Büyütme Etkileri
• Temel İzolasyonu ve Burkulma Önleyici Mesnetler (BRBler)
• Deprem Riskini Azaltma Politikaları
• Kahramanmaraş Depremi

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