Madencilikte Patlatma Verimliliğinin Tahmini: Boosting Tabanlı Makine Öğrenmesi Algoritmaları ile Kapsamlı Bir Değerlendirme

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 2, 775 - 799, 16.03.2026

Cihan Bayraktar , Hasan Eker , Demet Demir Şahin

https://doi.org/10.47495/okufbed.1758876

https://izlik.org/JA36YU26WX

Öz

Bu çalışma, gerçek dünya operasyon verilerini kullanarak yeraltı madencilik operasyonlarında patlatma verimliliğini tahmin etmeye odaklanmaktadır. Temel amaç, en son teknolojiye sahip boosting tabanlı makine öğrenimi (ML) algoritmalarının tahmin gücünden yararlanarak regresyon analizi yoluyla patlatma verimliliğini doğru bir şekilde tahmin etmektir. Veri setinin nispeten küçük ve çok değişkenli yapısı göz önüne alındığında, aşırı uyum riski düşük, esnek ve yüksek hızlı algoritmalar tercih edilmiştir. Beş farklı son teknoloji boosting algoritmasını karşılaştırmalı olarak değerlendiriyoruz: Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost) ve Histogram-based Gradient Boosting Machine (HistGBM). Ayrıca, tahmin performansını daha da artırmak için üç farklı ensemble öğrenme stratejisi (Basit Ortalama, Ağırlıklı Ortalama ve En İyi 3 Model ile Ağırlıklı Ortalama) uygulanmış ve test edilmiştir. Metodoloji, Tarih gibi alakasız değişkenlerin kaldırılması, Hedef Kodlama kullanılarak kategorik özelliklerin sayısal dönüşümü ve StandardScaler ile sayısal girdilerin normalleştirilmesi dahil olmak üzere kapsamlı veri ön işlemeyi içeriyordu. 2019-2020 yeraltı patlatma operasyonlarından elde edilen 652 gözlemden oluşan veri kümesi, %80 eğitim ve %20 test kümelerine ayrıldı ve model eğitimi için 10 Katlı Çapraz Doğrulama kullanıldı. Her bir güçlendirme algoritması için hiperparametre optimizasyonu, manuel ayarlama, GridSearchCV ve RandomizedSearchCV kullanılarak gerçekleştirildi. Model performansı, çapraz doğrulama ve test kümeleri için R2, Ortalama Karesel Hata (MSE), Kök Ortalama Karesel Hata (RMSE) ve Ortalama Mutlak Hata (MAE) metrikleri kullanılarak değerlendirildi. Bulgularımız, ensemble yöntemlerinin tahmin doğruluğunu önemli ölçüde artırdığını göstermektedir. Karşılaştırmalı analiz, patlatma verimliliği tahmini için en uygun makine öğrenimi yaklaşımının belirlenmesini sağlamıştır. Bu araştırma, madencilik ortamlarında veriye dayalı karar destek sistemleri aracılığıyla patlatma verimliliğini artırmak ve operasyonel süreçleri optimize etmek için sağlam bir çerçeve sağlayarak bilimsel literatüre önemli katkıda bulunmaktadır. Sonuçlar, doğru ve güvenilir patlatma verimliliği tahmini için birden fazla boosting algoritması ve ensemble tekniğinin birleştirilmesinin etkinliğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Patlatma Verimliliği , Makine Öğrenmesi , Maden Mühendisliği , Boosting Algoritmaları , Topluluk Öğrenmesi

Prediction of Blasting Efficiency in Mining: A Comprehensive Evaluation with Boosting-Based Machine Learning Algorithms

https://izlik.org/JA36YU26WX

Öz

This study focuses on predicting blasting efficiency in underground mining operations using real-world operational data. The primary objective is to accurately estimate blasting efficiency through regression analysis, leveraging the predictive power of state-of-the-art boosting-based machine learning (ML) algorithms. Given the relatively small and multi-variate nature of the dataset, algorithms with low overfitting risk, flexibility, and high speed were preferred. We comparatively evaluate five different cutting-edge boosting algorithms: Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), and Histogram-based Gradient Boosting Machine (HistGBM). Additionally, to further enhance prediction performance, three distinct ensemble learning strategies—Simple Averaging, Weighted Averaging, and Weighted Average with the Best 3 Models—were implemented and tested. The methodology involved comprehensive data preprocessing, including the removal of irrelevant variables like Date, numerical transformation of categorical features using Target Encoding, and normalization of numerical inputs with StandardScaler. The dataset, comprising 652 observations from 2019-2020 underground blasting operations, was split into 80% training and 20% testing sets, and 10-Fold Cross Validation was employed for model training. Hyperparameter optimization for each boosting algorithm was performed using manual tuning, GridSearchCV, and RandomizedSearchCV. Model performance was assessed using R2, Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) metrics for both cross-validation and test sets. Our findings indicate that ensemble methods significantly improve prediction accuracy. The comparative analysis allowed for the identification of the most suitable machine learning approach for blasting efficiency prediction. This research contributes significantly to the scientific literature by providing a robust framework for enhancing blasting efficiency and optimizing operational processes through data-driven decision support systems in mining environments. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of combining multiple boosting algorithms and ensemble techniques for accurate and reliable blasting efficiency prediction.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Blasting Efficiency , Machine Lerning , Mining Engineering , Boosting Algorithms , Ensemble Learning

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