Orta Karadeniz Bölgesi Yağış Değişimlerinin İstatistiksel ve Grafiksel Yaklaşımlarla Analizi

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 5, 2263 - 2283, 10.12.2024

Taner Mustafa Cengiz

Öz

Hidrolojik değişkenlerin en önemlilerinden biri yağışlardır. Yağışın değişkenliğinin bilinmesi su yapılarının tasarım, yapım ve işletmesi açılarından hem de tarım için çok önemlidir. Bunun yanında, kuraklık analizlerinde de hidrolojik verilerin ve özelikle yağış değişkenliğinin belirlenmesi gereklidir. Hidrolojik değişkenlerin trend hesaplamaları gelecek ile ilgili yapılan çeşitli çalışmalarda önemli bir faktördür. Hidrolojik değişkenlerin zaman serilerinde meydana gelebilen tarihsel değişiklerin incelenmesinde çok sayıda istatiksel teknikler oluşturulup kullanılmaktadır. Klasik istatistiksel yöntemler incelenecek zaman serilerine ilişkin birçok varsayıma dayanmaktadır. Zaman serilerindeki değişikleri analiz etmek için kullanılan istatistiksel yöntemlerdeki varsayımları azaltmanın ve istatistiksel yaklaşım sonuçlarının daha güvenilir hale getirmenin bir yolu grafiksel ve istatistiksel yöntemlerin birlikte kullanılması olabilir. Bu çalışmada Orta Karadeniz bölgesinde bulunan Samsun, Ordu, Çorum, Amasya ve Tokat istasyonlarının 1960-2015 yılları arasında yıllık toplam yağış trend analizi hem klasik istatistiksel yöntem hem de grafiksel yöntemlerle yapılmıştır. Bu amaçla, tarihsel yağış değişikliklerini analiz etmek için klasik istatistiksel Mann-Kendall yönteminin yanı sıra veri noktalarının aşım ve aşım dışı sayıları arasındaki farkın rafine edilmiş kümülatif toplamı yöntemi, yenilikçi Şen ve Yenilikçi Şen’in modifiye edilmiş Yenilikçi Trend Değişim Kutuları grafik yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. İstatistiksel yöntem olan Mann-Kendall yönteminde tespit edilemeyen gizli trendlerin, kümülatif toplamı yöntemi ve Yenilikçi Trend Değişim Kutuları grafik yöntemleri ile değişik aralıklarda trendlerin belirlenebildiği görülmüştür. Yapılan çalışma sonucunda, grafiksel ve istatistiksel yöntemler arasında iyi bir eşleşme olduğu görülmüştür. Ayrıca grafik trend yöntemleri ile ekstrem yağışların yönelimlerinin daha detaylı bir şekilde incelenebileceği anlaşılmıştır. Bu çalışmada yağışlarda, özellikle verilerin değişkenliğinin çok olması halinde, bu yeni yöntemlerin farklı gruplardaki çeşitli trendleri daha hassas olarak belirleyebildiği anlaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yıllık toplam yağış, grafiksel yaklaşım, Orta karadeniz bölgesi, yenilikçi trend değişim kutuları yötemi

Teşekkür

Bu çalışmada beni destekleyen Doç. Dr. Reşat Mutlu'ya çok teşekkür ederim.

Analysis of Precipitation Changes in the Central Black Sea Region with Statistical and Graphical

Öz

One of the most important hydrological variables is precipitation. Knowing the variability of precipitation is very important in the design, construction and operation of water structures both in agriculture. In addition, it is necessary to determine hydrological data and especially precipitation variability in drought analyses. Many statistical techniques have been developed and applied to examine possible literal changes in the time series of hydrological data. Traditional statistical methods are based on a variety of assumptions about the time series to be studied. It may be possible to reduce the assumptions in statistical methods used to assess changes in time series and to increase the reliability of the statistical approach outcomes by combining graphical and statistical methods. One way to soften assumptions in statistical methods used to analyze changes in time series and to make statistical approach results more reliable may be to use graphical and statistical methods together. In this study, annual total precipitation trend analysis of Samsun, Ordu, Çorum, Amasya, and Tokat stations located in the Central Black Sea region between 1960 and 2015 was performed using both traditional statistical method and graphical methods. To this end, two graphical methods of the refined cumulative sum of the difference between exceedance and non-exceedance counts of data points and innovative trend analyses and innovative trend analyses change boxes along with the classical statistical Mann–Kendall method are used to analyze historical precipitation changes. It has been observed that hidden trends, that can’t be exposed in the Mann-Kendall statistical method, and trends in different intervals can be determined with the refined cumulative sum of the difference and innovative trend analyses change boxes graphic methods. The results show a good match between the results of the graphical and statistical methods. In this study, it was understood that these new methods can determine various trends in different groups more accurately in precipitation, especially if the variability of the data is high. As a result of the study, it was found that there is a good match well between graphical and statistical methods. In addition, it has been understood that the orientations of extreme precipitation can be studied in more detail with graphical trend methods. In this study, it was understood that these new methods can determine various trends in different groups more accurately in precipitation, especially if the variability of the data is high.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Annual total precipitation, Central black sea region, Innovative trend analyses change boxes method

Kaynakça

• Agbo EP., Nkajoe U., Edet C. Comparison of Mann–Kendall and Şen’s innovative trend method for climatic parameters over Nigeria’s climatic zones. Climate Dynamics 2023; 60(11): 3385-3401.
• Akinsanola AA., Ogunjobi KO. Recent homogeneity analysis and long-term spatio-temporal rainfall trends in Nigeria. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2017; 128: 275-289.
• Alashan S. An improved version of innovative trend analyses. Arabian Journal of Geosciences 2018; 11(3): 50-57.
• Alashan S., Toprak F., Şen Z. İklim değişikliğinin Murat nehri su gücü potansiyeline etkisi. 4. Su Yapıları Sempozyumu, 19-20 Kasım 2015, sayfa no:31-30, Antalya.
• Ali R., Kuriqi A., Abubaker S., Kisi O. Long-term trends and seasonality detection of the observed flow in Yangtze River using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s innovative trend method. Water 2019; 11(9): 1855.
• Alifujiang Y., Abuduwaili J., Maihemuti B., Emin B., Groll, M. Innovative trend analysis of precipitation in the Lake Issyk-Kul Basin, Kyrgyzstan. Atmosphere 2020; 11(4): 332.
• Anderson JE., Shiau SY., Harvey D. Preliminary investigation of trend/patterns in surface water characteristics and climate variations. Using Hydrometric Data to Detect and Monitor Climatic Change 1991; 8: 189-201.
• Anık EM., Akçay F., Kankal M., Murat Ş. Doğu Karadeniz Havzası yıllık anlık maksimum akımların eğilim analizi. Journal of Innovations in Civil Engineering and Technology 2021; 3(1): 1-22.
• Ay M., Kisi O. Estimation of dissolved oxygen by using neural networks and neuro fuzzy computing techniques. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering 2017; 21: 1631-1639.
• Ay M., Kisi O. Investigation of trend analysis of monthly total precipitation by an innovative method. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2015; 120: 617-629.
• Baglee A., Connell R., Haworth A., Rabb B., Acclimatise WB., Uluğ G., Laugesen FM. Pilot climate change adaptation market study. Turkey. Disclosure 2017.
• Bayazıt M., Cığızoğlu HK., Önöz B. Türkiye akarsularında trend analiz. Türkiye Mühendislik Haberleri Dergisi 2002; 420-422.
• Birsan MV., Molnar P., Burlando P., Pfaundler M. Streamflow trends in Switzerland. Journal of Hydrology 2005; 314(1-4): 312-329.
• Boudiaf B., Şen Z., Boutaghane H. Climate change impact on rainfall in north-eastern Algeria using innovative trend analyses (ITA). Arabian Journal of Geosciences 2021; 14(6): 511.
• Burn DH., Soulis ED. The use of hydrologic variables in detecting climatic change: possibilities for single station and regional analysis. Using Hydrometric Data to Detect and Monitor Climatic Change. Proceedings of NHRI Workshop 1992; 8: 121-130.
• Buyukyildiz M. Evaluation of annual total precipitation in the transboundary Euphrates–Tigris River Basin of Türkiye using innovative graphical and statistical trend approaches. Applied Water Science 2023; 13(2): 38.
• Caloiero T. SPI trend analysis of New Zealand applying the ITA technique. Geosciences 2018; 8(3): 101.
• Caporali E., Lompi M., Pacetti T., Chiarello V., Fatichi S. A review of studies on observed precipitation trends in Italy. International Journal of Climatology 2021; 41: E1-E25.
• Cengiz TM., Tabari H., Onyutha C., Kisi O. Combined use of graphical and statistical approaches for analyzing historical precipitation changes in the Black Sea region of Turkey. Water 2020; 12(3): 705.
• Ceribasi G., Ceyhunlu AI. Analysis of total monthly precipitation of Susurluk Basin in Turkey using innovative polygon trend analysis method. Journal of Water and Climate Change 2021; 12(5): 1532-1543.
• Chowdhury RK., Beecham S. Australian rainfall trends and their relation to the southern oscillation index. Hydrological Processes: An International Journal 2010; 24(4): 504-514.
• Citakoglu H., Minarecioglu N. Trend analysis and change point determination for hydro-meteorological and groundwater data of Kizilirmak basin. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2021; 145(3): 1275-1292.
• Çeribasi G., Ceyhunlu A. Analysis of total monthly precipitation of Susurluk Basin in Turkey using innovative polygon trend analysis method. Journal of Water and Climate Change 2021; 12(5): 1532-1543.
• Çeribaşı G. Şen Yöntemi ve trend yöntemleri kullanılarak doğu Karadeniz havzasının yağış verilerinin analiz edilmesi. Journal of the Institute of Science and Technology 2019; 9(1): 254-264.
• Çıtakoğlu H., Minarecioğlu N. Trend analysis of monthly average flows of Kızılırmak basin. Journal of Anatolian Environmental and Animal Sciences 2019; 4(3).
• Dabanli I., Şişman E., Güçlü YS., Birpınar ME., Şen Z. Climate change impacts on sea surface temperature (SST) trend around Turkey seashores. Acta Geophysica 2021; 69: 295-305.
• Dabral PP., Hangshing L. Analysis of change point of rainfall and its trend in Doimukh (Itanagar), Arunachal Pradesh. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation 2017; 16(4): 370-379.
• Demir V. Karadeniz bölgesi yağışlarının trend analizi. Ondokuz Mayıs Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Yüksek Lisans Tezi, sayfa no:16-20, Samsun, Türkiye, 2018.
• Deniz A., Toros H., Incecik S. Spatial variations of climate indices in Turkey. Int. J. Clim. 2011; 31: 394–403.
• Esit M. Investigation of innovative trend approaches (ITA with significance test and IPTA) comparing to the classical trend method of monthly and annual hydrometeorological variables: a case study of Ankara region. Turkey. Journal of Water and Climate Change 2023; 14(1): 305-329.
• Gul S., Ren J. Application of non-parametric innovative trend analysis of different time scale precipitation during (1951–2016) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Acta Geophysica 2022; 70(1): 485-503.
• Gumus V., Avsaroglu Y., Simsek O. Streamflow trends in the Tigris river basin using Mann− Kendall and innovative trend analysis methods. Journal of Earth System Science 2022; 131(1): 34.
• Güçlü YS. Improved visualization for trend analysis by comparing with classical Mann-Kendall test and ITA. Journal of Hydrology 2020; 584: 124674.
• Güçlü YS. Multiple Şen-innovative trend analyses and partial Mann-Kendall test. Journal of Hydrology 2018; 566: 685-704.
• Gülersoy EA. Çorum merkez ilçede arazi kullanımının zamansal değişimi (1987-2011) ve çevresel etkileri. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi 2013; 11(2): 169-194.
• Haan CT. Statistical methods in hydrology. The Iowa State University Press, Iowa, 1977.
• Haktanir T., Citakoglu H. Trend, independence, stationarity, and homogeneity tests on maximum rainfall series of standard durations recorded in Turkey. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 2014; 19(9): 05014009.
• Hekimoğlu B., Altındeğer M., Demirbaş AR. Samsun ilinin fiziki durumu ve avantajları. Samsun Tarım İl Müdürlüğü Yayını 2007; 13-25.
• Helsel DR., Hirsch RM. Statistical methods in water resources. Chapter A3, techniques of water resources, investigations, book 4. U.S. Geological Survey, Shenandoah, 2002.
• Kahya E., Kalaycı S. Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey. Journal of Hydrology 2004; 289(1-4): 128-144.
• Karabulut M. Doğu Akdeniz’de ekstrem maksimum ve minimum sıcaklıkların trend analizi. KSÜ Doğa Bilimleri Dergisi 2012; (Özel Sayı): 37-44.
• Kendall MG. Rank correlation methods. Oxford University Press, New York. 1975.
• Kisi O. An innovative method for trend analysis of monthly pan evaporations. Journal of Hydrology 2015; 527: 1123-1129.
• Kundzewicz ZW., Robson A. Detecting trend and other changes in hydrological data. World Climate Program-Water, 2000, p. 157; Geneva, The Netherlands.
• Lehmann EL. Statistical methods based on ranks. Nonparametrics, San Francisco, CA, Holden-Day, 1975; 2.
• Libiseller C., Grimvall A. Performance of partial Mann–Kendall tests for trend detection in the presence of covariates. Environmetrics, The Official Journal of the International Environmetrics Society 2002; 13(1): 71-84.
• Mann HB. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society 1945; 245-259.
• Mersin D., Tayfur G., Vaheddoost B., Safari MJS. Historical trends associated with annual temperature and precipitation in Aegean Turkey, where are we heading?. Sustainability 2022; 14(20): 13380.
• Mishra AK., Singh VP. A review of drought concepts. Journal of Hydrology 2010; 391(1-2): 202-216.
• Mubialiwo A., Abebe A.,Onyutha C. Changes in extreme precipitation over Mpologoma catchment in Uganda, East Africa. Heliyon 2023; 9(3).
• Mubialiwo A., Chelangat C., Onyutha C. Changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration over Lokok and Lokere catchments in Uganda. Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology 2021; 2: 1-23.
• Onyutha C. Analyses of rainfall extremes in east Africa based on observations from rain gauges and climate change simulations by cordex rcms. Climate Dynamics 2020; 54(11-12): 4841-4864.
• Onyutha C. Graphical-statistical method to explore variability of hydrological time series. Hydrology Research 2021; 52(1): 266-283.
• Onyutha C. Identification of sub-trends from hydro-meteorological series. Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess 2015; 30: 189-205.
• Onyutha C. Statistical uncertainty in hydrometeorological trend analyses. Advances in Meteorology 2016; 1-26.
• Onyutha C. Trends and variability in African long-term precipitation. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment. 2018; 32(9): 2721-2739.
• Onyutha C., Kerudong PA. Changes in meteorological dry conditions across water management zones in uganda. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering 2022; 26(12): 5384-5403.
• Öztopal A., Şen Z. Innovative trend methodology applications to precipitation records in Turkey. Water Resources Management 2017; 31: 727-737.
• Pandey BK., Khare D., Tiwari H., Mishra PK. Analysis and visualization of meteorological extremes in humid subtropical regions. Natural Hazards 2021; 108: 661-687.
• Partal T., Ercan Y. Orta Karadeniz ve Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesinde kuraklık indisleri üzerine trend analizi uygulanması. Dicle Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Mühendislik Dergisi 2020; 11(2): 851-861.
• Partal T., Kahya E. Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrological Processes An International Journal 2006; 20(9): 2011-2026.
• Partal T., Yavuz E. Orta Karadeniz ve Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesinde kuraklık indisleri üzerine trend analizi uygulanması. Dicle Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Mühendislik Dergisi 2020; 11(2): 851-861.
• Pendergrass G., Knutti R., Sanderson B. Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate. Scientific Reports 2017; 7(1): 17966.
• Pour SH., Abd Wahab AK., Shahid, S., Ismail ZB. Changes in reference evapotranspiration and its driving factors in peninsular Malaysia. Atmospheric Research 2020; 246: 105096.
• Saplıoğlu K., Çoban E. Karadeniz bölgesi yağış serilerinin trend analizi. VII. Ulusal Hidroloji Kongresi Bildirileri 2013: 500-512, İsparta.
• Saplıoğlu K., Kilit M., Yavuz BK. Trend analysis of streams in the Western Mediterranean Basin of Turkey. Fresenius Environmental Bulletin 2014; 23(1): 313-327.
• Sayemuzzaman M., Jha MK. Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States. Atmospheric Research 2014; 137: 183-194.
• Sen PK. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association 1968; 63: 1379–1389.
• Sonali P., Kumar Nagesh D. Review of trend detection methods and their application to detect temperature changes in India. Journal Hydrolgy. 2013; 476: 212–227.
• Sutgibi S. Variations and trends in temperature, precipitation and stream-fow series in the Buyuk Menderes River Basin. Marmara Geog. Rev. 2015; (31): 398‒414.
• Şan M., Akçay F., Linh N. Kankal M., Pham QB. Innovative and polygonal trend analyses applications for rainfall data in Vietnam. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2021; 144: 809-822.
• Şen Z. Innovative trend analysis methodology. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 2012; 17(9): 1042-1046.
• Şen Z. Innovative trend significance test and applications. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2015; 127(3): 39–47.
• Şen Z. Trend identification simulation and application. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 2014; 19(3): 635-642.
• Tabari H., Hosseinzadehtalaei P., Aghaouchak A., Willems P. Latitudinal heterogeneity and hotspots of uncertainty in projected extreme precipitation. Environmental Research Letters 2019; 14(12): 124032.
• Talukdar S., Pal S., Shahfahad Naikoo MW., Parvez A., Rahman A. Trend analysis and forecasting of streamflow using random forest in the Punarbhaba River basin. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 2023; 195(1): 153
• Tang L., Yongbo Z. Considering abrupt change in rainfall for flood season division: A case study of the Zhangjia Zhuang reservoir, based on a new model. Water 2018; 10(9): 1152.
• Tokgöz S., Partal T. Karadeniz Bölgesinde yıllık yağış ve sıcaklık verilerinin yenilikçi Şen ve Mann-Kendall yöntemleri ile trend analizi. Journal of the Institute of Science and Technology 2020; 10(2): 1107-1118.
• Türkeş M., Erlat E. Variability and trends in record air temperature events of Turkey and their associations with atmospheric oscillations and anomalous circulation patterns. International Journal of Climatology 2018; 38(14): 5182-5204.
• Ünal Ç. Tokat’ın iklim özellikleri. Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi 2006; (2): 171-197.
• Vido J., Nalevanková P., Valach J., Sustek Z., Tadesse T. Drought analyses of the Horne Pozitavie region (Slovakia) in the period 1966–2013. Advances in Meteorology 2019; 1-11.
• Yagbasan O., Demir, V. Yazicigil H. Trend analyses of meteorological variables and lake levels for two shallow lakes in central Turkey. Water 2020; 12(2): 414.
• Yenilmez F., Keskin F., Aksoy A. Water quality trend analysis in Eymir Lake, Ankara. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 2011; Parts a/b/c, 36(5-6): 135-140.
• Yılmaz Y. Amasya Şehri’nin iklim yapısı ve özellikleri. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 2020; 24(Özel Sayı): 167-186.
• Yue S., Hashino M. Long term trends of annual and monthly precipitation in Japan 1. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association 2003; 39(3): 587-596.
• Yue S., Pilon P., Cavadias G. Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. Journal of Hydrology 2002; 259(1-4): 254-271.