MAKİNE ÖĞRENMESİ YÖNTEMLERİYLE EUROLEAGUE BASKETBOL MAÇ SONUÇLARININ TAHMİN EDİLMESİ VE MAÇ SONUÇLARI ÜZERİNDE EN ETKİLİ DEĞİŞKENLERİN BULUNMASI

Öz

Bu çalışmada 2016-2017 ile 2020-2021 yılları arasında oynanan 1358 EuroLeague basketbol maçlarındaki takım istatistikleri göz önüne alınmış ve bu takım istatistiklerinden hangilerinin maçın galibi üzerinde en çok etkiye sahip olduğu belirlenmeye çalışılmıştır. Maçlar, k-ortalama kümeleme analizi sonucunun belirttiği skor farklarına göre yakın, dengeli ve dengeli olmayan olmak üzere üç gruba ayrılmıştır. Hem bu üç grup hem de tüm maçlara k en yakın komşuluk, naive bayes, lojistik regresyon, destek vektör makinaları, karar ağacı, rastgele orman ve yapay sinir ağları algoritmaları uygulanmış ve en etkili algoritmalar lojistik regresyon, destek vektör makineleri ve yapay sinir ağları olarak bulunmuştur. Bu üç algoritma maç sonucunu tüm maçlar için yaklaşık %84 oranında doğru bilmiştir. Yakın maçlarda bu oran %79 a düşmüş, dengeli maçlarda %97 e, dengeli olmayan maçlarda %100 e çıkmıştır. Maç sonucu üzerinde en çok etkili olan değişkenler savunma ribaundu, gerçek şut yüzdesi, top çalma, top kaybı, hücum ribaundu ve denenen serbest atıştır. Burada bulunan sonuçlar takımların maç içi stratejilerini belirlerken en çok odaklanmaları gereken konular üzerinde fikir vermekte ve bu konular üzerine yoğunlaşarak strateji belirlemelerine yardımcı olacağı düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Basketbol
• makine öğrenmesi
• maç sonucu tahmini
• Euroleague

PREDICTING EUROLEAGUE BASKETBALL MATCH OUTCOMES WITH MACHINE LEARNING TECHNIQUES AND REVEALING THE MOST IMPORTANT GAME RELATED VARIABLES

Öz

In this study, team statistics in 1358 EuroLeague basketball matches played between 2016-2017 and 2020-2021 seasons were taken into account and it was tried to determine which of these team statistics had the most impact on the winner of the match. The matches were divided into three groups as close, balanced and unbalanced games according to the score differences indicated by the k-means cluster analysis result. K nearest neighbor, naive bayes, logistic regression, support vector machines, decision tree, random forest and artificial neural network algorithms were applied to both these three groups and all matches, and the most effective algorithms were found to be logistic regression, support vector machines and artificial neural networks. These three algorithms can predict correctly the match result for all matches with approximately 84% accuracy. This rate decreased to 79% in close matches, increased to 97% in balanced matches and to 100% in unbalanced matches. The variables that have the most influence on the outcome of the match are defensive rebounds, true shooting percentage, steals, turnovers, offensive rebounds and free throw attempts. The results give an idea on the issues that the teams should focus on while determining their in-match strategies and help them determine their strategy by focusing on these issues.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Basketball
• machine learning
• predict match outcome
• Euroleague

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