Is Jobless Growth Valid in Türkiye? A Sectoral Analysis of the Relationship between Unemployment and Economic Growth

Emre Akusta

doi:10.17541/optimum.1640550

TR EN

Türkiye'de İstihdam Yaratmayan Büyüme Geçerli mi? İşsizlik ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Sektörel Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de istihdam yaratmayan büyümenin geçerliliğini sektörel düzeyde analiz etmektedir. 2000-2022 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak tarım, sanayi, inşaat ve hizmetler sektörlerinin işsizlik oranı üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Analiz kapsamında ARDL yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular FMOLS ve CCR yöntemleri ile sınanmıştır. Sonuçlar, tüm sektörlerde büyümenin işsizlik oranını azalttığını göstermektedir. Tarım sektörünün GSYH içindeki payındaki bir birim artış, kısa vadede işsizlik oranını 0.471 puan, sanayi sektöründe 0.680 puan, inşaat sektörünün 0.899 puan ve hizmetler sektöründe ise 1.383 puan düşürmektedir. Uzun dönem katsayıları, sektörel büyümenin işsizlik üzerindeki etkilerinin kısa döneme kıyasla daha güçlü olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Tarım sektörünün GSYH içindeki payındaki bir birim artış, işsizlik oranını uzun vadede 2.380 puan, sanayi sektöründe 4.057 puan, inşaat sektöründe 1.761 puan ve hizmet sektöründe 3.664 puan azaltmaktadır. Bulgular, Türkiye'de genel olarak istihdamsız büyümenin geçerli olmadığını göstermektedir. Aksine, ekonomik büyüme işsizliğin azaltılmasında önemli bir rol oynamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İstihdam yaratmayan büyüme, Sektörel büyüme, ARDL, FMOLS, CCR

Is Jobless Growth Valid in Türkiye? A Sectoral Analysis of the Relationship between Unemployment and Economic Growth

Öz

This study analyzes the validity of jobless growth in Türkiye on sectoral basis. It analyzes the impacts of agriculture, industry, construction and services sectors on unemployment using annual data for the period 2000-2022. ARDL method is applied within the scope of the analysis. The findings are tested with FMOLS and CCR methods. The results show that growth in all sectors reduces the unemployment. A one-unit increase in the share of agriculture sector in GDP decreases the unemployment rate by 0.471 points, 0.680 points in the industrial sector, 0.899 points in the construction sector and 1.383 points in the services sector in the short-run. The long-run coefficients reveal that the impacts of sectoral growth on unemployment are stronger in the long-run than in the short-run. A one unit increase in the share of the agricultural sector in GDP decreases the unemployment rate by 2.380 points, 4.057 points in the industrial sector, 1.761 points in the construction sector and 3.664 points in the services sector in the long-run. These findings show that jobless growth is not valid in Türkiye in general. On the contrary, economic growth plays an important role in reducing unemployment.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Jobless growth, Sectoral growth, ARDL, FMOLS, CCR

Kaynakça

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

İngilizce

Konular

Uygulamalı Makro Ekonometri, Büyüme, İstihdam

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Emre Akusta ^*
0000-0002-6147-5443
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi

1 Temmuz 2025

Gönderilme Tarihi

15 Şubat 2025

Kabul Tarihi

8 Haziran 2025

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2025 Cilt: 12 Sayı: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.1640550

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA23CB49UY

APA

Akusta, E. (2025). Is Jobless Growth Valid in Türkiye? A Sectoral Analysis of the Relationship between Unemployment and Economic Growth. Optimum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 12(2), 469-486. https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.1640550

AMA

1.Akusta E. Is Jobless Growth Valid in Türkiye? A Sectoral Analysis of the Relationship between Unemployment and Economic Growth. OEYBD. 2025;12(2):469-486. doi:10.17541/optimum.1640550

Chicago

Akusta, Emre. 2025. “Is Jobless Growth Valid in Türkiye? A Sectoral Analysis of the Relationship between Unemployment and Economic Growth”. Optimum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi 12 (2): 469-86. https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.1640550.

EndNote

Akusta E (01 Temmuz 2025) Is Jobless Growth Valid in Türkiye? A Sectoral Analysis of the Relationship between Unemployment and Economic Growth. Optimum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi 12 2 469–486.

IEEE

[1]E. Akusta, “Is Jobless Growth Valid in Türkiye? A Sectoral Analysis of the Relationship between Unemployment and Economic Growth”, OEYBD, c. 12, sy 2, ss. 469–486, Tem. 2025, doi: 10.17541/optimum.1640550.

ISNAD

Akusta, Emre. “Is Jobless Growth Valid in Türkiye? A Sectoral Analysis of the Relationship between Unemployment and Economic Growth”. Optimum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi 12/2 (01 Temmuz 2025): 469-486. https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.1640550.

JAMA

1.Akusta E. Is Jobless Growth Valid in Türkiye? A Sectoral Analysis of the Relationship between Unemployment and Economic Growth. OEYBD. 2025;12:469–486.

MLA

Akusta, Emre. “Is Jobless Growth Valid in Türkiye? A Sectoral Analysis of the Relationship between Unemployment and Economic Growth”. Optimum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, c. 12, sy 2, Temmuz 2025, ss. 469-86, doi:10.17541/optimum.1640550.

Vancouver

1.Emre Akusta. Is Jobless Growth Valid in Türkiye? A Sectoral Analysis of the Relationship between Unemployment and Economic Growth. OEYBD. 01 Temmuz 2025;12(2):469-86. doi:10.17541/optimum.1640550

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Examining the Performance of Machine Learning Algorithms in Estimating the Unemployment Rate

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https://doi.org/10.52693/jsas.1926730

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Türkiye'de İstihdam Yaratmayan Büyüme Geçerli mi? İşsizlik ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Sektörel Analizi

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Is Jobless Growth Valid in Türkiye? A Sectoral Analysis of the Relationship between Unemployment and Economic Growth

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kaynakça

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Konular

Bölüm

Yazarlar

Yayımlanma Tarihi

Gönderilme Tarihi

Kabul Tarihi

Yayımlandığı Sayı

DOI

IZ

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Cited By

Examining the Performance of Machine Learning Algorithms in Estimating the Unemployment Rate