Relation of Economic Growth and Inflation in Turkey

Yıl 2019, , 171 - 184, 10.07.2019

Şahin Karabulut

https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.472412

Cited By: 11

Öz

It is
one of the most important macroeconomic objectives of ensuring the country's
economic growth. However, these policies can sometimes lead to deterioration in
some elements of the economy. For this reason, the relationship between
economic growth and inflation is indicative of economic policy. In this
respect, the relationship between economic growth and inflation in Turkey is
examined for the period 2003:Q1-2018:Q1. As a result of the Granger causality
test, it is concluded that GDP is the cause of inflation at a level of 5
percent significance, but a causality relationship from inflation to GDP has
not been established. On the other hand, as a result of the unit root test, it
is determined that the levels of GDP and inflation series are not stable and become
stable when the first difference is taken. Regression results made with
non-stationary variables can lead to spurious regression. For this reason,
cointegration analysis was performed between the variables, but it has not been
observed to any cointegration. This reveals that there is no long-term
relationship between GDP and inflation and the series act independently of each
other in the long-term.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Growth, Inflation, Granger Causality

Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Enflasyon İlişkisi

Öz

Ülkelerin en önemli
makroekonomik hedeflerinden birisi olan ekonomik büyümenin sağlanması için
uygulanan politikalar ekonomideki bazı unsurlarda zaman zaman bozulmalara yol
açabilmektedir. Bu nedenle ekonomik büyüme ile enflasyon arasında bir ilişki
olup olmadığı uygulanacak ekonomi politikaları açısından yol gösterici
olacaktır. Bu amaçla çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisi için 2003:Q1-2018:Q1
döneminde ekonomik büyüme ve enflasyon arasındaki ilişki analiz edilmiştir.
Yapılan Granger nedensellik testi sonucunda yüzde 5 anlamlılık seviyesinde
GSYİH’nın enflasyonun nedeni olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmış ancak enflasyondan
GSYİH’ya doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilememiştir. Diğer yandan,
yapılan birim kök testi sonucunda GSYİH ve enflasyona ait serilerin düzey değerlerinde
durağan olmadıkları ve birinci dereceden farkı alındığında durağan hale
geldikleri tespit edilmiştir. Durağan olmayan serilerle yapılan regresyon
sonuçlarının sahte regresyona yol açması muhtemel olduğundan dolayı değişkenler
arasında eşbütünleşme analizi yapılmış ancak herhangi bir eşbütünleşmeye
rastlanılmamıştır. Bu da GSYİH ve
enflasyon arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin olmadığını ve serilerin uzun
dönemde birbirinden bağımsız hareket ettiğini ortaya koymuştur.  

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik Büyüme, Enflasyon, Granger Nedensellik

Kaynakça

• Ahmad, N. ve Joyia, U.T.S. (2012). The relationship between inflation and economic growth in Pakistan: an econometric approach. Asian Journal of Research in Business Economics and Management, 2(9), 38-48.
• Ahmed, S. ve Mortaza, M. (2005). Inflation and economic growth in Bangladesh: 1981–2005. Working Paper, No: 0604.
• Aydın, C., Esen, Ö. ve Bayrak, M. (2016). Inflation and economic growth: a dynamic panel threshold analysis for Turkish Republics in transition process. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 229, 196-205.
• Barro, R.J. (1995). Inflation and economic growth. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 35, 166-176.
• Bullard, J. ve Keating, J.W. (1995). The long-run relationship between inflation and output in postwar economies. Journal of Monetary Economics, 36(3), 477-496.
• Caporin, M. and Di Maria, C. (2002). Inflation and growth: some panel data evidence. http://www.greta.it/wp/02.09.PDF, Retrieved on July 25, 2018
• Chari, V.V., Lary., E.J. ve Manuelli, R. (1996). Inflation, growth and financial intermediation. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 78(3), 41-58.
• Chowdhury, A. (2002). Does inflation affect economic growth? The relevance of the debate for Indonesia. Journal of Asia Pacific Economy, 7(1), 20-34.
• Edwards, S. (1982). The relation between growth and inflation in Latin America. Working Paper. UCLA Department of Economics, No: 235.
• Engle, R.F. ve Granger, C.W.J. (1987). Cointegration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
• Faria, J.R. and Carneıro, F.G. (2001). Does high inflation affect growth in the long and short run?. Journal of Applied Economics, 4(1), 89-105.
• Granger, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.
• Gujarati, D. (2011). Econometrics by example. PaIgrave, MacmiIan.
• Hodge, D. (2006). Inflation and growth in South Africa. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 30(2), 163-180.
• Johansen, S. ve Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169–210.
• Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
• Khan, S.M. ve Senhadji, A.S. (2001). Threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and economic growth. IMF Staff Papers, 48(1), 1-21.
• Kim, S. ve Willett, T.D. (2000). Is the negative correlation between inflation and economic growth realian analysis of the effects of the oil supply shocks?. Applied Economics Letters, 7(3), 141-147.
• Li, M. (2006). Inflation and economic growth: threshold effects and transmission mechanisms. http://economics.ca/2006/papers/0176.pdf, Retrieved on June 25, 2018.
• Lucas, R.E. (1973), Some international evidence on output-inflation tradeoffs, The American Economic Review, 63(3), 326-334.
• Mahmoud, L.O.M. (2015). Consumer price index and economic growth: a case study of Mauritania 1990 -2013. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 5(2), 16-23.
• Mallik, G. and Chowdhury, A. (2001). Inflation and economic growth: evidence from four south Asian countries. Asia-Pasific Development Journal, 8(1), 123-135.
• Mughal, F.A., Aslam, N., Jabbar, M.A. ve Ullah, W. (2012), Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth, are they related? A study on south East Asian economies 1960-2010. Journal of Basic and Applied Scientific Research, 2(6), 6108-6114.
• Romer, C.D. (1996). Inflation and the growth rate of output. Working Paper, National Bureau of Economic Research, No: 5575.
• Sarel M. (1996). Nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth. IMF Staff Papers, 43(1), 199-215.
• Taban, S. (2008). Türkiye’de enflasyon-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: sınır testi yaklaşımı. TİSK Akademi, 2008-1, 145-167.
• Tarı, R. (2002). Ekonometri, Alfa Yayınları, İstanbul.
• Thirlwall, A.P. ve Barton, C.A. (1971). Inflation and growth: the international evidence, Banco Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 98, 263-275.
• Topçu, E. (2017). Enflasyon oranı-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, 7(2), 180-191.
• Tun Wai U. (1959). The relation between inflation and economic development: a statistical inductive, IMF Staff Papers, 7, 202-209.
• Türkekul, B. (2007). Türkiye’de enflasyon-büyüme ilişkisi: tarım sektörü itibariyle ekonometrik bir analiz. Ege Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, 44 (1), 163-175.
• Yakışık, H. (2007). Relationship between inflation and economic growth in the Kyrgyz Republic. Sosyo-Ekonomi, 2007-2, 12-28.
• Yapraklı, S. (2007). Enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye için eş-bütünleşme ve nedensellik testleriyle bir analiz. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 10(2), 287-300.