The Relationship of Terms of Trade and Economic Growth: The Turkish Case

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 2 Sayı: 2, - , 26.06.2015

Ramazan Ekinci , Osman Tüzün , Hakan Kahyaoğlu

https://doi.org/10.17541/oeybd.53001

Cited By: 1

Öz

This paper aims to analyze the influence of foreign trade sizes on economic growth. Theoretical framework of this study rests on Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) and Obstfeld-Razin-Svensson (ORS) effect approaches. Approach of HLM indicates that any setback in foreign trade size of a country causes a favorable effect on foreign trade deficit of that country. In accordance with improved growth rates generated by this positive effect HLM approach also provides information towards an increase of foreign trade deficits. This approach is known as S-Curve in academic literature. ORS approach on the other hand, opposes that improvements in foreign trade sizes become effective on economic growth with perceptions related with continuity of shock happening to foreign trade sizes.

With this context, positive and negative effects of foreign trade sizes on economic growth are examined via Markov Variation technique. In the analysis, manufacturing industry production index is taken as indicator of economic growth whereas foreign trade sizes are taken as regimen or transitional parameter. With findings of this study, outward-oriented growth strategy depends on the terms of trade are in favor of the country.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect; Obstfeld-Razin-Svensson Effect; Markov Regime Variation Approach; Foreign Trade Sizes

Dış Ticaret Hadleri Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı dış ticaret hadlerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmektir. Bu çalışmanın teorik temeli Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) ve Obstfeld-Razin-Svensson (ORS) etkisi yaklaşımlarına dayanmaktadır. HLM yaklaşımı dış ticaret hadlerindeki bir kötüleşmenin ülkenin dış ticaret açıkları üzerinde olumlu bir etkiye yol açacağını belirtmekte, bu olumlu gelişmenin ülkenin ekonomik büyümesi üzerinde yaratacağı etkiye bağlı olarak da dış ticaret açıklarında bir artışa neden olacağı yönünde bilgi sunmaktadır. Bu yaklaşım literatürde S Eğrisi olarak bilinmektedir. ORS yaklaşımı ise dış ticaret hadlerindeki bir şokun devamlılığı yönündeki algıya bağlı olarak dış ticaret hadlerindeki gelişmelerin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde etkili olacağını belirtmektedir.

Bu kapsamda dış ticaret hadlerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki pozitif ve negatif etkisi Markov Değişim Tekniği yaklaşımıyla incelenmektedir. Analizde ekonomik büyümenin göstergesi olarak imalat sanayi üretim endeksi, rejim veya geçiş değişkeni olarak da dış ticaret hadleri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulgularına göre dışa açık ekonomik büyüme stratejisi dış ticaret hadlerinin ülke lehine olmasına bağlıdır. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Etkisi; Obstfeld-Razin-Svensson Etkisi; Markov Rejim Değişim Yaklaşımı; Dış Ticaret Hadleri

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