Intergenerational Income Mobility in Turkey

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 223 - 238, 01.07.2021

Erkan Duman

https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.836632

Cited By: 1

Öz

This study presents a thorough review of the literature on intergenerational income mobility with a focus on the issues regarding consistent estimation of mobility correlations. In the light of the discussions, the intergenerational income association in Turkey is analyzed using OLS and IV estimation strategies. The sample is extracted from Household Budget Surveys and includes father-son and father-daughter pairs with either non-zero wages or non-zero earnings living in the same household in any of the years between 2003 and 2011. OLS and IV estimation strategies are shown to bound the true population mobility correlation from below and above; hence, resulting in a consistent interval estimate of intergenerational mobility. The true mobility correlations in the population are estimated to be in the range of (0.10, 0.51) for sons and (0.17, 1.00) for daughters. The large mobility correlations may call for government intervention to break the harmful income link across generations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Intergenerational Mobility, Personal Income, Well-Being

Türkiye’deki Kuşaklar Arası Gelir Hareketliliği

Öz

Bu çalışma, hareketlilik korelasyonlarının tutarlı tahminine ilişkin konulara odaklanarak kuşaklar arası gelir hareketliliği literatürünün kapsamlı bir incelemesini sunmaktadır. Tartışmalar ışığında, Türkiye'deki kuşaklar arası gelir hareketliliği “En Küçük Kareler” ve “Araç Değişken” tahmin stratejileri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Örneklem Hanehalkı Bütçe Anketlerinden alınmıştır ve 2003 ile 2011 arasındaki yılların herhangi birinde aynı hanede yaşayan pozitif bir ücret veya kazanç belirten baba-oğul ve baba-kız çiftlerini içerir. En Küçük Kareler ve Araç Değişken tahmin stratejilerinin gerçek popülasyon hareketliliği korelasyonunu aşağıdan ve yukarıdan bağladığı gösterilmiştir; bu nedenle, kuşaklar arası hareketliliğin tutarlı bir aralık tahmini ile sonuçlanır. Popülasyondaki gerçek hareketlilik korelasyonlarının erkek çocuklar için (0,10, 0,51) ve kız çocuklar için (0,17, 1,00) aralığında olduğu tahmin edilmektedir. Bulunan büyük hareketlilik korelasyonları, iki nesil arasında yer alanzararlı gelir bağını kırmak için devlet müdahalesini gerektirebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kuşaklar Arası Hareketlilik, Kişisel Gelir, Refah

Kaynakça

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