Impact of Financial Development, Trade Openness on Informal Economy: Empirical Evidence from Turkey

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 1, 169 - 186, 04.01.2025

Hatice İmamoğlu

Öz

This study aims to investigate the empirical relationship between the development of the financial sector and informal economic activities in Turkey. Firstly, the stationarity of the series was tested by using GLS-based unit root tests. Then, the existence of long-term relationship of the model was tested using Maki (2012)’s cointegration test. Finally, in the last stage, the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) technique was applied to estimate the error correction, long-term and short-term coefficients. The results obtained from timeseries analysis show that the growth of the financial sector has a positive and statistically significant effect on the informal economy. This finding indicates that the development of the financial system contributes to the expansion of informal economic activities. Another striking finding of the study is the reducing effect of trade openness on the informal economy in the long term. These results offer important implications for policy design for developing countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Financial Sector, Trade Openess, Informal Economy, Time Series Analysis, Turkey

Proje Numarası

yok

Finansal Gelişme ve Ticari Açıklığın Kayıt Dışı Ekonomi Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye'den Ampirik Kanıtlar

Öz

Bu çalışma, finansal sektörün gelişimi ile kayıtdışı ekonomik faaliyetler arasındaki ampirik ilişkiyi Türkiye örneği için araştırmayı hedeflemektedir. Bu çalışmada, 1960 ve 2015 yıllarını kapsayan zaman serisi analizi kullanılmıştır. Öncelikle, GLS Tabanlı Birim Kök Testleri kullanılarak serilerin durağanlıkları test edilmiş, daha sonra Maki’nin (2012) eşbütünleşme testi kullanılarak modelin uzun dönemli ilişkisinin olup olmadığı test edilmek suretiyle son aşamada tamamen değiştirilmiş sıradan en küçük kareler (FMOLS) tekniği kullanılarak hata düzeltme katsayısı, uzun, ve kısa dönem katsayıları hesaplanmıştır. Zaman serisi analizinden elde edilen sonuçlar, finansal sektörün büyümesinin kayıtdışı ekonomi üzerinde olumlu ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu bulgu, finansal sistemin gelişiminin, kayıtdışı ekonomik faaliyetlerin genişlemesine katkıda bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Çalışmanın dikkat çeken bir diğer bulgu ise, ticaret açıklığının uzun vadede kayıtdışı ekonomi üzerindeki azaltıcı etkisi olduğudur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Mali Sektör, Ticaret Açıklığı, Kayıtdışı Ekonomi, Zaman Serisi Analizi, Türkiye

Etik Beyan

Bu çalışma bilimsel araştırma ve yayın etiği kurallarına uygun olarak hazırlanmıştır.

Destekleyen Kurum

yok

Proje Numarası

yok

Kaynakça

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