The Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Ensuring Financial Stability

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 1, 25 - 46, 04.01.2025

Ayşegül Şahin

Öz

This study examines the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on financial stability in the Turkish economy for the period 2005Q1-2024Q1. For this purpose, a comprehensive Macro-Financial Stability Index reflecting the changes in the financial stability of the Turkish economy is calculated. Monetary policy interest rate and tax revenue data were used as monetary and fiscal policy variables, respectively. According to the results of the Autoregressive Distributed-Lag (ARDL) model, it is seen that increases in policy interest rates negatively affect financial stability in the short and long term. It is determined that the increase in tax revenues has negative effects on financial stability in the short term and a positive impact in the long term. Sudden and sharp increases in interest rates can disrupt financial stability in the short term. Increasing tax revenues will help sustain public debt and finance public expenditures. Policymakers can maintain financial stability by carefully managing interest rates and tax policies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Financial stability, Monetary policy, Fiscal policy

Etik Beyan

This study has been prepared in accordance with the rules of scientific research and publication ethics.

Finansal İstikrarı Sağlamada Para ve Maliye Politikalarının Rolü

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisinde para ve maliye politikalarının finansal istikrara etkileri 2005Q1-2024Q1 dönemi için incelenmektedir. Bu amaçla, Türkiye ekonomisinin finansal istikrarındaki değişimleri yansıtan kapsamlı bir Makro-Finansal İstikrar Endeksi hesaplanmıştır. Para ve maliye politikası değişkenleri olarak, sırasıyla, para politikası faiz oranı ve vergi geliri verileri kullanılmıştır. Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif Sınır Testi (ARDL) modelinin sonuçlarına göre, politika faiz oranlarındaki artışların kısa ve uzun vadede finansal istikrarı olumsuz etkilediği görülmektedir. Vergi gelirlerindeki artışın finansal istikrar üzerinde kısa vadede olumsuz, uzun vadede ise olumlu etkileri olduğu belirlenmiştir. Faiz oranlarındaki ani ve keskin artışlar kısa vadede finansal istikrarı bozabilir. Vergi gelirlerinin artırılması kamu borcunun sürdürülmesine ve kamu harcamalarının finanse edilmesine yardımcı olacaktır. Politika yapıcılar faiz oranlarını ve vergi politikalarını dikkatli bir şekilde yöneterek finansal istikrarı koruyabilirler.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Finansal istikrar, Para politikası, Maliye politikası

Teşekkür

Editör ve editör yardımcılarına ilgileri için teşekkür eder, iyi çalışmalar dilerim.

Kaynakça

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