Suriye İç Savaşı ve Türkiye: Çatışma, Güvenlik ve Sığınma

Yıl 2020, , 2179 - 2213, 30.09.2020

İ. Aytaç Kadıoğlu

https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.714551

Cited By: 4

Öz

Arap Baharı ayaklanmalarının başlangıcından kısa süre sonra Suriye’ye sıçrayan protestolar, Suriye rejiminin göstericilere şiddet uygulamasıyla tüm ülkeyi saran bir iç savaşa dönüşmüştür. 2011 yılında başlayan iç savaş yüzbinlerce insanın hayatını kaybetmesine neden olmuş, bunun yanında politik, ekonomik, sosyo-kültürel ve güvenlik alanlarında pek çok bölgesel problemi de beraberinde getirmiştir. Türkiye Suriye’deki iç savaştan en çok etkilenen ülkelerden biridir. DEAŞ (Irak ve Şam Devleti) ve PYD/YPG (Demokratik Birlik Partisi/Halk Savunma Birlikleri) gibi terör örgütlerinin varlığı, ABD ve Rusya’nın bölge üzerindeki hâkimiyet amacı, Ortadoğu’daki bölgesel güçlerin çıkarları gibi konular Türkiye’nin güvenliğini git gide artan oranda tehdit etmektedir. Ancak, iç savaşın Türkiye’nin güvenliğine etkisi akademik literatürde yeterli düzeyde analiz edilmemiştir. Literatürdeki bu boşluğu doldurmak için bu makale, Türkiye’nin güvenliği sorununu iki temel faktör bağlamında analiz etmektedir: yayılma etkisi ve sığınmacılar sorunu. Bu makalede birincil kaynak olarak Türkiye, ABD ve İngiltere tarafından yayınlanan resmi raporlar kullanılmaktadır. Bu kaynaklardan elde edilen veriler Türkiye’nin resmi yetkililerinin Türkiye’nin Suriye iç savaşı bağlamındaki açıklamalarıyla zenginleştirilecektir. Bu makale, Türkiye’nin Suriye’deki iç savaştan yayılma etkisi bağlamında ağır biçimde etkilendiği, ancak Suriyeli sığınmacıların güvenlik anlamında bugüne kadar büyük bir tehdit oluşturmadığı sonucuna varmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Suriye iç savaşı, Türkiye’nin güvenlik politikası, yayılma etkisi, sığınmacılar, sınır güvenliği

The Syrian Civil War and Turkey: Conflict, Security and Refugees

Öz

The Arab uprising protests spread into Syria after a short time, which turned into a civil war when the Syrian government attacked protesters. The civil war caused hundreds of thousands of people’s lives since its initiation in 2011 and brought about political, economic, socio-cultural and security issues. Turkey has been one of the most affected countries of the war in Syria. DAESH (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria) and PYD/YPG (Democratic Union Party/People’s Defence Units) terrorist organisations, the US and Russia’s rivalry to take the region under control, the competing interests of the regional powers of the Middle East posed security threats for Turkey. However, this issue has not been sufficiently assessed in the existing scholarly literature. In order to fill this gap, the article offers a bilateral analysis to understand Turkey’s security concerns: the spillover effect and the issue of refugees. This article uses official reports published by the Turkish and British governments and the US administration as primary sources. These sources are complemented through the speeches of Turkish officials to comprehend Turkey’s security perception in regard to the Syrian civil war. The article claims that the Syrian civil war has caused a threat towards Turkey’s security through the attacks of the terrorist organisations. However, the article has found that Syrian refugees have not caused any major security issues since the beginning of the conflict.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Syrian civil war, Turkey’s security policy, spillover effect, refugees, border security

Kaynakça

• Suriyelilerin karıştığı suç oranı yüzde 1,46'ya düştü. (2018, 22 Ekim). Anadolu Ajansı. 25 Mart 2020 tarihinde https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/turkiye/suriyelilerin-karistigi-suc-orani-yuzde-1-46ya-dustu/1289461 adresinden erişildi.
• Acun, C. ve Keskin, B. (2017). The PKK’s branch in Northern Syria: PYD-YPG. İstanbul: SETA.
• Rebels in southern Syria reach deal to end violence (2018, 20 Ağustos). AlJazeera. 21.08.2018 tarihinde https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/07/rebels-southern-syria-reach-ceasefire-deal-russia- 180706130719825.htm.l adresinden erişildi.
• Altun, F. (2018). Hem savaşacak, hem imar edeceğiz. Kriter, 22, 6-8.
• Biden Orders Syrian Kurds to Pull Back; Assad Govt Slams Turkish Incursion (2016, 24 Ağustos). ArabNews. 29.10.2016 tarihinde http://www.arabnews.com/node/974651/middle-east adresinden erişildi.
• Azam, J.-P. ve Hoeffler, A. (2002). Violence against civilians in civil wars: Looting or terror? Journal of Peace Research, 39(4), 461-485.
• Bass, G.J. (2000). Stay the hand of vengeance: The politics of war crimes tribunals (Vol. 142). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
• Syria's Warring Sides Brought Together for Geneva Talks (2017, 23 Şubat). BBC. 24.02.2017 tarihinde https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39037609 adresinden erişildi.
• Brown, M. (1996). The causes and regional dimensions of ınternal conflict. M. Brown (Der.), The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict içinde (s.571–602). Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
• Buhaug, H. ve Gleditsch, K.S. (2008). Contagion or confusion? Why conflicts cluster in space? International Studies Quarterly, 52(2), 215–233
• Burton, J.W. (1990a). Conflict: Resolution and provention. London: MacMillan.
• Burton, J.W. (1990b). Conflict: Human needs theory. London: Springer.
• Carmignani, F. ve Chowdhury, A. (2012). The geographical dimension of the development effects of natural resources. Environmental and Resource Economics, 52(4), 479-498.
• U.S. Airstrikes Hit ISIS Targets Inside Syria (2014, 23 Eylül). CNN. 02.10.2014 tarihinde http://edition.cnn.com/2014/09/22/world/meast/u-s-airstrikes-isis syria/index.html?hpt=hp_t1 adresinden erişilmiştir.
• Cockburn, P. (2016, 20 Şubat). Turkish threats of intervention after Ankara bombing taken seriously by Obama. 21.02.2016 tarihinde https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-conflict-isis- turkey-barack-obama-ankara-bombing-a6886466.html adresinden erişildi.
• Collier, P. Elliott, V.L., Hegre, H., Hoeffler, A., Reynal-Querol, M. ve N. Sambanis. (2003). Breaking the conflict trap: Civil war and development policy. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Publications.
• Türkiye’deki Suriyeliler Hakkında Neler Biliyoruz? (2019, 31 Temmuz). Cumhuriyet, 25.03.2020 tarihinde http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/haber/turkiyedeki-suriyeliler-hakkinda-neler-biliyoruz-1512612 adresinden erişildi.
• De Groot, O.J. (2011). Culture, contiguity and conflict: On the measurement of ethnolinguistic effects in spatial spillovers. The Journal of Development Studies, 47(3), 436-454.
• Dagher, S. ve Farnaz, F. (2013, 22 Ağustos). Syria presses offensive, shrugs off gas attack claims. 30.01.2018 tarihinde https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1000142412788732461950457902862115939279 adresinden erişildi.
• DNI (2016). ISIL finances: Future scenarios. Washington, D.C.: Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
• Ensor, J. (2018). Syrian flag flying over onetime rebel stronghold douma as Russians announce victory in Eastern Ghouta. The Telegraph. 13.04.2018 tarihinde https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/12/syrian- flag-flying-onetime-rebel-stronghold-douma-russians-announce/ adresinden erişildi.
• FAC (2018). Kurdish aspirations and the ınterests of the UK. Londra: Dış İlişkiler Komitesi, Avam Kamarası.
• Galtung, J. (1985). Twenty-five years of peace research: Ten challenges and some responses. Journal of Peace Research, 22(2), 141-158.
• Ganguly, S. (1996). Conflict and Crisis in South and Southwest Asia. M. Brown (Der.), The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict içinde (s.141–72). Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
• GİGM. (2020, 19 Mart). Yıllara göre geçici koruma kapsamındaki Suriyeliler. T.C. İçişleri Bakanlığı Göç İdaresi Genel Müdürlüğü. 28.03.2020 tarihinde https://www.goc.gov.tr/gecici-koruma5638 adresinden erişildi.
• Gurr, T.R. (1980). Handbook of political conflict: Theory and research. New York: Free Press.
• Helm, T. (2014, 2 Ekim). US 'set to launch air strikes' on senior ISIS Terror Chiefs in Syria-World news. The Guardian. 03.11.2015 tarihinde https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/23/us-air-strikes-isis- commanders-syria-considered adresinden erişildi.
• Holliday, J. (2011, 1 Aralık). The struggle for Syria in 2011. Institute for the Study of War. 15.02.2017 tarihinde http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/ Struggle_For_Syria.pdf adresinden erişildi.
• Kadıoğlu, İ. A. (2018). Yaşamın sınırını geçmek: Avrupa Birliği Suriyeli sığınmacılar için güvenli bir liman mı?” E.Özensel, G.Bozbaş, F.Kaleci ve M.N. Salur (Der.), Ortadoğu’da Göç Hareketleri ve Değişen Dinamikler içinde (s.48-78). Konya: Aybil Yayınları.
• Kadıoğlu, İ. A. (2019a). Not our war: Iraq, Iran and Syria’s approaches towards the PKK. The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development, 9(1), 44-57.
• Kadıoğlu, İ. A. (2019b). The Oslo talks: Revealing the Turkish government’s secret negotiations with the PKK. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 42(10), 915-933.
• Kadıoğlu, İ. A. (2020) Challenges of ınternational negotiations in the Syrian Civil War. Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies 7(1).
• Kalyvas, S.N. (2006). The logic of violence in Civil War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Khan, H.U. ve Khan, W. (2017). Syria: History, the civil war and peace prospects. Journal of Political Studies, 24(2), 587-601.
• Lake, D.A. ve Rothchild, D.S. (1998). The international spread of ethnic conflict: Fear, diffusion, and escalation. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
• Lawson, F.H. (2014). Syria’s mutating civil war and its impact on Turkey, Iraq and Iran. International Affairs, 90(6), 1351-1365.
• Loescher, G. (1993). Beyond charity: International cooperation and the global refugee crisis: A Twentieth Century fund book. New York: Oxford University Press.
• Martin, N. (2018). The AK Party and the Kurds since 2014: A discourse of terror. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 45(4), 543-558.
• Millett, R. (2002). Colombia's conflicts: The spillover effects of a wider war (Vol. 57). Dante B. Fascell North- South Center, University of Miami.
• Esad ile YPG’den İdlib’de İşbirliği (2020, 16 Şubat). Milliyet. 01.03.2020 tarihinde https://www.milliyet.com.tr/gundem/esad-ile-ypgden-idlibde-is-birligi-6145814 adresinden erişildi.
• Moore, W.H. ve Shellman, S.M. (2004). Fear of persecution: Forced migration, 1952-1995. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48(5), 723-745.
• Süleyman Soylu: Suriyeli Kaydına İstanbul Kapalıdır (2019, 6 Temmuz). NTV. 01.02.2020 tarihinde https://www.ntv.com.tr/turkiye/suleyman-soylu-suriyeli-kaydina-istanbul- kapalidir,xNoCL4_zTE6vVk1vJOYPeA adresinden erişildi.
• NYT (2014, 9 Ekim). "Obama administration ends Pentagon Program to train Syrian rebels". The New York Times. 09.09.2018 tarihinde https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/10/world/middleeast/pentagon-program- islamic-state-syria.html?&hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column- region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news adresinden erişildi.
• NYT (2015, 12 Ekim). U.S. Weaponry ıs turning Syria Into proxy war with Russia. New York Times. 26.03.2020 tarihinde https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/13/world/ middleeast/syria-russia-airstrikes.html adresinden erişildi.
• ORSAM (2015). Suriyeli Sığınmacıların Türkiye’ye etkileri. (Rapor No: 195), Ankara: Ortadoğu Stratejik Araştırmalar Merkezi.
• Parlar-Dal, E. (2016). Impact of the transnationalization of the Syrian Civil War on Turkey: Conflict spillover cases of ISIS and PYD-YPG/PKK. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 29(4), 1396-1420.
• Iraqi PM Maliki Says Saudi, Qatar openly funding violence in Anbar (2014a, 9 Mart). Reuters. 18.03.2020 tarihinde https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-saudi-qatar/iraqi-pm-maliki-says-saudi-qatar- openly-funding-violence-in-anbar-idUSBREA2806S20140309 adresinden erişildi.
• German Minister Accuses Qatar of Funding Islamic State Fighters. (2014b, 20 Ağustos). Reuters, 18.03.2020 tarihinde https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-security-germany-qatar/german-minister-accuses- qatar-of-funding-islamic-state-fighters-idUSKBN0GK1I720140820 adresinden erişildi.
• Syria's Army, Allies Plan Offensive against Insurgents in Aleppo (2015, 14 Ekim). Reuters. 29.11.2015 tarihinde http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/10/14/uk-mideast-crisis-syria-rebels-idUKKCN0S71VO20151014 adresinden erişildi.
• Syrian Army, Rebels Agree to 72-Hour Eid Truce, But Fighting Continues (2016, 7 Temmuz). Reuters. 07.09.2016 tarihinde https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-truce-idUSKCN0ZM0PZ adresinden erişildi.
• Putin Declares "Complete Victory" on Both Banks of Euphrates in Syria (2017, 6 Aralık). Reuters. 16.12.2017 tarihinde https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideastcrisis-syria-putin/putin-declares-complete-victory- on-both-banks-of-euphrates-in-syria-idUSKBN1E027 adresinden erişildi.
• ISIS Economy Based on Illegal Drug Trade-Russian Anti-Drug Chief. (2015, 23 Temmuz). RT, 17.03.2020 tarihinde https://www.rt.com/russia/310571-isis-economy-based-on-illegal/ adresinden erişildi.
• Salehyan, I. ve Gleditsch, K.S. (2006). Refugees and the spread of Civil War. International organization, 60(2), 335-366.
• Salehyan, I. (2007). Transnational rebels: Neighbouring states as sanctuary for rebel groups. World Politics, 59, 217–242.
• Salloum, R. (2013, 10 Ekim). From jail to Jihad: Former prisoners fight in Syrian Insurgency. 06.04.2016 tarihinde http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/former-prisoners-fight-in-syrian-insurgency-a-927158.html adresinden erişildi.
• Shearer, D. (1997). Exploring the limits of consent: Conflict resolution in Sierra Leone. Millennium, 26(3), 845- 860.
• Skocpol, T. (1979). States and social revolutions: A comparative analysis of France, Russia and China. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Small, M. ve Singer, J.D. (1982). Resort to arms: International and civil wars, 1816-1980. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage Publications, Inc.
• Taştan, C., Haklı, S.Z. ve Osmanoğlu, E. (2017). Suriyeli Sığınmacılara dair tehdit algısı: Önyargılar ve gerçekler (Rapor No: 9). Ankara: Polis Akademisi Yayınları.
• UNSCSF (1951). United Nations convention relating to the status of refugees. United Nations.
• US Treasury (2016). Testimony of assistant secretary Daniel Glaser, U.S. Treasury, before U.S. House Committee on foreign affairs subcommittee on terrorism, nonproliferation, and trade, US Treasury.
• van Wilgenburg, W. (2013, 17 January). Kurdish forces clash with main Syrian opposition in Syria, Reports Say. 06.04.2016 tarihinde http://www.rudaw.net/english/news/syria/5666.html adresinden erişildi.
• Wallensteen, P. (2018). Understanding conflict resolution. (2nd Edition). London: Sage Publication.
• Walter, B.F. (1997). The critical barrier to civil war settlement. International Organization, 51(3), 335-364.
• Weiner, M. (1992). Security, stability, and international migration. International Security, 17(3), 91-126.
• Weiner, M. (1996). Bad neighbors, bad neighborhoods: An inquiry into the causes of refugee flows. International Security, 21(1), 5-42.
• Woodward, S.L. (2007). Do the root causes of civil war matter? on using knowledge to improve peacebuilding interventions. Journal of Intervention and Statebuilding, 1(2), 143-170.
• Yuhas, A. (2016, 17 Eylül). UN security council to hold emergency Meeting on US air Strikes in Syria. The Guardian. 08.10.2016 tarihinde https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/17/russia-says-us-led- airstrikes-hit-syrian-troops-killing-62-and-wounding-dozens adresinden erişildi.
• Zapotosky, M. ve Berman, M. (2016, 14 Haziran). Orlando Gunman who pledged loyalty to ISIS was ‘homegrown’ extremist radicalized online, Obama Says. The Washington Post. 16.03.2020 tarihinde https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2016/06/13/police-orlando-gunman-was-cool-and-calm-during-hostage-standoff/ adresinden erişildi.