Economic Confidence Index and Economic Growth Relationship: Prediction with Artificial Neural Networks in the Case of Turkey

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 36, 2490 - 2517, 30.04.2021

Emek Aslı Cinel Ufuk Yolcu

https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.885417

Cited By: 1

Öz

Ekonomik Güven Endeksi ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Yapay Sinir Ağları ile Türkiye Örneği Öngörüsü

Öz

Abstract
It is inadequate to evaluate merely basic macroeconomic indicators to speak of economic growth. Economic growth is also related to external factors. One of these factors is the sentiment of confidence. Economic confidence is associated with expectations. Consumers, producers, savers, and laborers make their economic decisions according to their expectations and affect the economy. In this context, the rise in confidence in the economy positively affects consumption and production decisions, and economic growth is achieved. The study aimed to investigate the relationship between economic confidence and economic growth in Turkey. For this purpose, the economic confidence index data obtained from the official website of TSI over the period 2007-2020 were utilized. The overall situation of the economy was evaluated by considering the data of these index values. As a result of the study, it was observed that the economic growth slowed down in the pessimistic situation where the confidence in the economy decreased, whereas the economic growth boosted in the optimistic situation where the confidence in the economy increased. Moreover, within the scope of this study, both annual and quarterly changes in the Gross Domestic Product, a measurement of economic growth, were predicted with different artificial neural networks (ANNs) over the period 2007 – 2020. Throughout the prediction process, the time-series of economic confidence index with monthly data observed within the same period were included in the inputs of the neural network as the auxiliary variable. The results indicated that artificial neural networks performed successfully in predicting the time-series for economic growth and this situation was based on the relationship between economic growth and economic confidence index.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Confidence, Economic growth, Turkey

Kaynakça

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