Ekonomik Güven Endeksi ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Yapay Sinir Ağları ile Türkiye Örneği Öngörüsü
Öz
Abstract
It is inadequate to evaluate merely basic macroeconomic indicators to speak of economic growth. Economic growth is also related to external factors. One of these factors is the sentiment of confidence. Economic confidence is associated with expectations. Consumers, producers, savers, and laborers make their economic decisions according to their expectations and affect the economy. In this context, the rise in confidence in the economy positively affects consumption and production decisions, and economic growth is achieved. The study aimed to investigate the relationship between economic confidence and economic growth in Turkey. For this purpose, the economic confidence index data obtained from the official website of TSI over the period 2007-2020 were utilized. The overall situation of the economy was evaluated by considering the data of these index values. As a result of the study, it was observed that the economic growth slowed down in the pessimistic situation where the confidence in the economy decreased, whereas the economic growth boosted in the optimistic situation where the confidence in the economy increased. Moreover, within the scope of this study, both annual and quarterly changes in the Gross Domestic Product, a measurement of economic growth, were predicted with different artificial neural networks (ANNs) over the period 2007 – 2020. Throughout the prediction process, the time-series of economic confidence index with monthly data observed within the same period were included in the inputs of the neural network as the auxiliary variable. The results indicated that artificial neural networks performed successfully in predicting the time-series for economic growth and this situation was based on the relationship between economic growth and economic confidence index.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Aarle, B. and Kappler, M. (2012). Economic sentiment shocks and fluctuations in economic activity in the Euro area and the USA. Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, 47(1), 44-51.
- Arısoy İ. (2012). Türkiye ekonomisinde iktisadi güven endeksleri ve seçilmiş makro değişkenler arasındaki. İlişkilerin VAR analizi. Maliye Dergisi, 162, 305-315.
- Aydın, M. and Turan, Y. E. (2019). Türkiye’de ekonomik güven büyümeyi etkiliyor mu? RALS birim kök ve eşbütünleşme yaklaşımı. Ekoist: Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, 32, 1-16.
- Aytekin, İ. and Doyar, B. V. (2019). Türkiye’de döviz kuru dalgalanmalarının sanayi üretimi ve tüketici güveni üzerindeki etkisi: 2008-2019. Uluslararası Bilimsel Araştırmalar Kongresi, Gölbaşı - Adıyaman, 913-923.
- Başarır, Ç., Bicil, İ. M. and Yılmaz, Ö. (2019). The relationship between selected financial and macroeconomic variables with consumer confidence ındex. Journal of Yaşar University, 14, 173-183.
- Beşel, F. and Yardımcıoğlu, F. (2016). Tüketici güven endeksi ile makro değişkenler arasındaki ilişki, Uluslararası Politik, Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Kongresi Bildiriler Kitabı, 475-487.
- Boulila, G., Bousrih, L. and Trabelsi, M. (2008). Social capital and economic growth: empirical investigations on the transmission channels. International Economic Journal, 22(3), 399-417.
- Chuku, C., Oduor, J. and Simpasa, A. (2017). Intelligent forecasting of economic growth for African Economies: Artificial neural networks versus time series and structural econometric models. Washington Research Program on Forecasting, 1-28.
- Çelik, S., Aslanoğlu, E. and Uzun, S. (2010). Determinants of consumer confidence in emerging economies: a panel cointegration analysis. Topics in Middle Eastern and African Economies, 12, 1-19.
- Çoban, H. and Balıkçıoğlu, E. (2020). Güven, inovasyon ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi. Maliye Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(3), 1-16.