WHY ARMIES REACTED DIFFERENTLY TO THE ARAB UPRISINGS? DYNAMICS AFFECTING THE DECISION OF MILITARY

Öz

The uprisings, which began in Tunisia, have spread at a rapid pace and with an unprecedented intensity. These uprisings have influenced all Arab countries in a variety of ways, followed particular pathways and ended differently. However, the reactions of armies to the orders of their respective governments have varied from loyalty to defection. This paper aims to examine the reciprocal and combined effect of government and military institutions on the issue. The qualitative method with some quantitative figures has been used. The effects of institutionalization of governments and the professionalization of armies have been studied in this article along with the consequences of uprisings in five separate cases: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, and Syria. It is found that while instability has indeed occurred at different levels in all of these cases, the interaction of the institutionalization of government and the professionalization of the military have played decisive effects more than the effect of each one on the reaction of armies

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Institutionalism, Professionalism, Arab Uprising, Armed Forces, Civil Military Relations

ORDULAR ARAP AYAKLANMALARINA NEDEN FARKLI TEPKİ VERDİLER? SİLAHLI KUVVETLERİN KARARINI ETKİLEYEN FAKTÖRLER

Öz

Tunus’la başlayan ve daha önce tahmin edilemeyen bir hızda ve yoğunlukta yayılan ayaklanmalar, çok geçmeden neredeyse bütün Arap devletlerini etkisi altına almıştır. Bu kitlesel karışıklıklar her birinde kendine özgü şekilde yaşanmış ve etkileri halen yaşanmaya devam etmektedir. Öte yandan, bu ayaklanmaları bastırmakla ilgili emir alan silahlı kuvvetler emrin gereğini yapmaktan, emirlere itaat etmemeye kadar değişen biçimlerde tepkiler göstermişlerdir. Bu makalenin temel amacı, önceki çalışmaların bıraktığı boşluğun doldurulmasını hedefleyerek, yönetimlerde kurumsallaşma ve ordularda profesyonelleşmenin kitlesel ayaklanmalarla karşılaşan askerlerin müdahale etme yönünde emir aldıklarında gösterecekleri reaksiyona nasıl etkide bulunduklarını araştırmaktır. İki değişkenin birleşik etkisi Tunus, Mısır, Libya, Yemen ve Suriye örnekleri üzerinde incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın önemli bulgularından birisi, kitlesel ayaklanmalarla karşılaşan orduların müdahale etme yönünde kararlarına ve bu müdahalenin nasıl sonuçlanacağına yönetimde kurumsallaşma ve orduların profesyonelleşme düzeylerinin birleşik olarak etkisinin, ikisinin tek başına etkisinden daha önemli olduğu yönündedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kurumsallaşma, Profesyonelleşme, Arap Ayaklanmaları, Silahlı Kuvvetler, Sivil Asker İlişkileri.

Kaynakça

1. Anderson, Lisa, “Demystifying the Arab Spring”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.90, No.3 (May/June 2011), pp.2-7.
2. Barany, Zoltan, “Comparing the Arab Revolts: The Role of the Military”, Journal of Democracy, Vol.22, No.4 (2011), pp.28-39.
3. Bellin, Eva, “The Robustness of Authoritarianism in the Middle East”, Com- parative Politics, Vol.36, No.2 (January 2004), pp.139-157.
4. Bou Nassif, Hicham, “‘Second-Class’: The Grievances of Sunni Officers in the Syrian Armed Froces”, Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol.38, No.5 (2015), pp.626-649.
5. Bremmer, Ian, The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall (New York: Simon Schuster, 2006).
6. Brooks, Risa, “Making Military Might: Why do States Fail and Succeed? A Review Essay”, International Security, Vol.28, No.2 (2003), pp.149- 191.
7. Brooks, Risa, “Introduction: The Impact of Culture, Society, Institutions, and Internal Forces on Military Effectiveness”, Risa Brooks and Eliza- beth A. Stanley (ed.), Creating Military Power: The Sources of Military Effectiveness (California: Stanford University Press, 2007), pp.1-26.
8. Brooks, Risa, “Abandoned at the Palace: Why the Tunisian Military Defected from the Ben Ali Regime in January 2011”, The Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol.36, No.2 (2013), pp.205-220.

9. Cook, Steven, Ruling but not Governing: The Military and Political Develop- ment in Egypt, Algeria, and Turkey (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 2007).
10. Doran, Michael and Salman Shaikh, ‘The Ghosts of Hama’, Kenneth Pol- lack (et al.), The Arab Awakening: America and the Transformation of the Middle East (Washington: Brookings Institution Press, 2011), pp.230-240.
11. Droz-Vincent, Philippe, “The Role of the Military in Arab Transitions”, Pan- orama (Med. 2012), pp.136-140.
12. Fattah, Khaled, “A Political History of Civil-Military Relations in Yemen”, Alternative Politics, Special Issue 1 (November 2010), pp.25-47.
13. Feaver, Peter D., “The Civil-Military Problematique: Huntington, Janowitz, and the question of civilian control”, Armed Forces & Society, Vol.23, No.2 (1996), pp.149-178.
14. Feaver, Peter, “Civil-Military Relations”, Annual Review of Political Science, Vol.2 (1999), pp.211-241.
15. Finer, Samuel E., The Man on the Horseback: The Role of the Military in Politics (Boulder: Westview Press, 1988).
16. Frisch, Hillel, “The Egyptian Army and Egypt’s ‘Spring’”, The Journal of Stra- tegic Studies, Vol. 36, No.2 (2013), pp.180-204.
17. Gaub, Florence, “The Libyan Armed Forces between Coup Proofing and Re- pression”, Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol.36, No.2 (2013), pp.221- 244.
18. Gelvin, James L., What Everyone Needs to Know (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012).
19. Hamid, Shadi, “Tunisia: Birthplace of the Revolution”, Kenneth Pollack (et al.), The Arab Awakening: America and the Transformation of the Mid- dle East (Washington: Brookings Institution Press, 2011), pp.111- 116.
20. Hashim, Ahmed, “The Egyptian Military, part two: From Mubarak Onward”, Middle East Policy, Vol.18, No.4 (2011), pp.106-128.
21. Housden, Oliver, “Egypt: Coup d’Etat or a Revolution Protected”, The RUSI Journal, Vol.158, No.5 (2013), pp.72-78.
22. Huntington, Samuel, The Soldier and the State: The Theory and Politics of Civ- il-Military Relations (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1957).
23. Huntington, Samuel, Political Order in Changing Societies (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1969).
24. International Crisis Group, Popular Protest in North African and The Middle East (II): Yemen Between Reform and Revolution, Middle East/North Africa Report No.102 (10 March 2011).
25. Janowitz, Morris, The Professional Soldier: A Social and Political Portrait (New York: The Free Press, 1960).
26. Jebnoun, Noureddine, “In the Shadow of Power: Civil-Military Relations and the Tunisian Popular Uprising”, The Journal of North African Studies, Vol.19, No.3 (2014), pp.1-33.
27. Kamrava, Mehran, “Military Professionalization and Civil Military Rela- tions in the Middle East”, Political Science Quarterly, Vol.115, No.1 (2000), pp.67-92.
28. Kaufmann, Daniel, Aart Kraay and Massimo Mastruzzi, The Worldwide Gov- ernance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5430, (2010), http://elibrary. worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/1813-9450-5430 (Accessed at: 12 Jan. 2016).
29. Kirkpatrick, David D., “Military Backs New Leaders in Tunisia”, 17 Jan. 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/17/world/africa/17tunis. html?_r=1 (Accessed at: 11 Jan. 2016).
30. Kirkpatrick, David D., “Chief of Tunisian Army Pledges His Support for ‘the Revolution”, 25 Jan. 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/25/ world/africa/25tunis.html (Accessed at: 03 Jan. 2016).
31. Knights, Michael, “The Military Role in Yemen’s Protests: Civil-Military Re- lations in the Tribal Republic”, Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol.36, No.2 (2013), pp.261-288.
32. Lee, Terence, “The Armed Forces and Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Explaining the Role of the Military in 1986 Philippines and 1998 Indonesia”, Comparative Political Studies, Vol.42, No.5 (2009), pp.640-669.
33. Lutterbeck, Derek, “Arab Uprisings, Armed Forces, and Civil-Military Rela- tions”, Armed Forces & Society, Vol.39, No.1 (2013), pp.28-52.
34. Lynch, Marc, The Arab Uprising: The Unfinished Revolutions of the New Middle East (New York: Public Affairs, 2012).
35. Macleod, Hugh, “Inside Deraa”, Al Jazeera, 2011, http://www.aljazeera.com/ indepth/features/ 2011/04/201141918352728300.html (Accessed at: 14 September 2015).
36. Makara, Michael, “Coup-Proofing, Military Defection, and the Arab Spring”, Democracy and Security, Vol.9, No.4 (2013), pp.334-359.
37. Mansfield, Edward D. and Jack Snyder, “Democratic Transitions, Institution- al Strength, and War”, International Organization, Vol. 56, No. 2 (Spring 2002), pp. 297-337.
38. Mansfield, Edward D. and Jack Snyder, “Democratization and the Arab Spring”, International Interactions, Vol.38, No.5 (2012), pp. 722- 733.
39. Marlowe, Ann, “Libya’s De-professionalized Army Needs Help”, 2012, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/ann-marlowe/lib- ya%E2%80%99s-de-professionalized-army-needs-help (Accessed at: 12 Dec. 2015).
40. Marshall, Monthy G., Ted Robert Gurr and Keith Jaggers, POLITY IV Project Data Users’ Manual, Center for Systemic Peace (2013), www.system- icpeace.org (Accessed at: 23 Jan. 2016).
41. Masoud, Tarek, “The Road to (and from) Liberation Square”, Journal of De- mocracy, Vol. 22, No.3 (2011), pp.20-34.
42. Miller, Derek, ‘Demand, Stockpiles and Social Controls: Small Arms in Ye- men’, Small Arms Survey Occasional Paper no. 9 (Geneva: Small Arms Survey 2003).
43. Nepstad, Sharon Erickson, “Mutiny and Nonviolence in the Arab Spring: Exploring Military Defections and Loyalty in Egypt, Bahrain, and Syria”, Journal of Peace Research, Vol.50, No.3 (2013), pp.337-349.
44. Nordlinger, Eric, Soldiers in Politics: Military Coups and Governments (Engle- wood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1977).
45. O’Donnell, Guillermo, Philippe C. Schmitter and Laurence Whitehead, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Comparative Perspectives (Balti- more: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986).
46. Pachon, Alejandro, “Loyalty and Defection: Misunderstanding Civil-Military Relations in Tunisia During the ‘Arab Spring’”, The Journal of Strate- gic Studies, Vol.37, No.4 (2014), pp.508-531.
47. Perlmutter, Amos, Political Roles and Military Rulers (London: Frank Cass, 1981).
48. Phillips, Christopher, “Syria’s Bloody Arab Spring”, pp. 37-42, http://www. lse.ac.uk/ideas/publications/reports/pdf/sr011/final_lse_ideas__syr- iasbloodyarabspring_phillips.pdf (Accesssed at: 02 Feb. 2016).
49. Phillips, Sarah, “Who Tried to Kill Ali Abdullah Saleh?”, Foreign Policy, 13 June 2011, http://foreignpolicy.com/2011/06/13/who-tried-to-kill- ali-abdullah-saleh/ (Accessed at: 21 Jan. 2016).
50. Prieur, Denis, “Defend or Defect Military Roles in Popular Revolts”, SSRN, 15 Dec. 2011, p.7, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?ab- stract_id=2115062 (Accessed at: 04 Feb. 2016).
51. Quinlivan, James T., “Coup Proofing”, International Security, Vol.24, No.2 (Fall 1999), pp.131-165.
52. Rubin, Barry, “The Military in Contemporary Middle East Politics”, Mid- dle East Review of International Affairs Journal, Vol.5, No.1 (March 2001), pp.47-63.
53. Sayigh, Yezid, “Agencies of Coercion: Armies and Internal Security Forces”, International Journal of Middle East Studies, Vol.43, No.3 (2011).
54. Schiff, Rebecca L., “Civil-Military Relations Reconsidered: A Theory of Con- cordance”, Armed Forces & Society, Vol.22, No.1 (Fall 1995), pp.7- 24.
55. Silverman, Daniel, The Arab Military in the Arab Spring: Agent of Continuity of Change, 2012, p.20, http://politicalscience.osu.edu/intranet/cprw/ Silverman%20CPRW%202012 .pdf (Accessed at: 11 Nov. 2015).
56. SIPRI, Military Expenditure Database, 2014, http://www.sipri.org/research/ armaments/milex/ milex_database (Accessed at: 12 Jan. 2015).
57. Skocpol, Theda, States and Social Revolutions (New York: Cambridge Univer- sity Press, 1979).
58. Springborg, Robert, “Economic Involvements of Militaries”, International Journal of Middle East Studies, Vol.43, No.3 (2011), pp.397-399.
59. Steiman, Daniel, “Military Decision-Making During the Arab Spring”, 2012, http://muftah.org/military-decision-making-during-the-ar- ab-spring/#_edn13 (Accessed at: 13 Nov. 2015).
60. The Guardian, “Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali forced to flee Tunisia as protest- ers claim victory”, 14 Jan. 2011, http://www.theguardian.com/ world/2011/jan/14/tunisian-president-flees-country-protests (Ac- cessed at: 01 Feb. 2016).
61. The Guardian, “Libya defectors: Pilots told to bomb protesters flee to Malta”, 21 Feb. 2011, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/feb/21/ libya-pilots-flee-to-malta (Accessed at: 23 Dec. 2015).
62. The Guardian, “Libya: Defections leave Muammar Gaddafi isolated in Tripoli bolthole”, 23 Feb. 2011, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/ feb/23/muammar-gaddafi-libya-tripoli-uprising (Accessed at: 24 Jan. 2016).
63. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), The Military Balance (2010).
64. Welch, Claude E. (ed.), Civilian Control of the Military: Theory and Cases from Developing Countries (New York: State University of New York Press, 1976).
65. Zantovsky, Michael. “1989 and 2011, Compare and Contrast”, World Affairs, Vol.174, No.2 (July/August 2011), pp.13-24.
66. Zisser, Eyal, “The Syrian Army: Between the Domestic and the Exter- nal Fronts”, Middle East Review of International Affairs Journal, Vol.5, No.1 (2001), http://www.rubincenter.org/2001/03/ziss- er-2001-03-01/ (Accessed at: 05 Jan. 2016).