Mısır'daki Dönüşümün Siyasi Ekonomisi

Yıl 2012, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 1, 9 - 26, 15.07.2016

Benjamin Macqueen

Öz

Bu çalışma, Mısı'ın Mübarek sonrası dönüşüm örneğinden yararlanarak bir siyasal ekonomi analizinin geçis siyaseti dinamiklerine nasıl daha fazla ışık tutabileceği konusunu özetlemenin yanısıra bu dönüşüm süreci sonucunda nelein ortaya çıkabileceğine dair tahminlerde de bulunmaktadır. Özellikle Haggard ve Kaufman'ın (1995), ekonomik etkenlerin siyasi açıdan ilgili grupları tespit edeceğimizi ve bu grupların hızlı siyasi değişim süreçlerinde halk desteğini arkalarına alma veya pekiştirmenin yollarını arama konusunda nasıl hareket edeceklerini açıklığa kavuşturacağımıı öne süren varsayımların analizini yapmaktadır. Burada, Mısır'ın Ocak 2011'den Haziran 2012'ye kadar geçen süreçteki dönüşüm analizi ilk varsayımla çelişmekte, ve bunun yerine, Mısır syasi sahnesinde birbirine cephe alan aktörler arasında ekonomik konulardaki benzerliklerin altını çizmektedir. Ancak ikinci varsayıma destek olarak, hala devam eden ekonomik faktörler de siyasi aktörlerin hareketlerini şekillendirme konusunda oldukça etkilidir. Bu faktörler, yerel bir ktilenin çeşitli taleplerini ve borç veren yabancı kurumların gereksinimlerini karşılamak gibi geçiş ekonomilerinin yüz yüze geldiği ikilem sonucunda şekillenmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Mısır, Siyasal Ekonomi, Siyasi Dönüşüm, Demokratikleşme, Otoriterizm, Liberalleşme

The Political Economy of Transition in Egypt

Öz

Using the example of Egypt’s post-Mubarak transition, this paper outlines how a political economy analysis can shed further light on the dynamics of transitional politics as well as making tentative predictions on what may emerge from this transitional period. Specifically, it tests Haggard and Kaufman’s (1995) assumptions that economic factors enable us to identify politically relevant groups as well as clarify how these groups will act in seeking to generate and consolidate popular support in times of rapid political change. Here, an analysis of Egypt’s transition from January 2011 to June 2012 contradicts the first assumption, instead highlighting similarities on economic issues amongst confrontational players on the Egyptian political scene. However, it is supportive of the second assumption that, once underway, economic considerations are highly influential in shaping the actions of political players. These considerations are shaped by the dilemma facing transitional economies, that of meeting the divergent demands of a domestic audience and the requirements of foreign lending institutions.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Egypt, Political Economy, Political Transition, Democratisation, Authoritarianism, Liberalisation

Kaynakça

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