Devrim Teorileri ve Arap Ayaklanmaları: Ortadoğu’dan Dersler

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2, 85 - 110, 15.07.2013

Derya Göçer Akder

Öz

Son dönemdeki Arap Ayaklanmaları hem bölge çalışmalarında hem de
sosyal bilim kuramlarındaki önemli başlıkları yeniden tartışmaya açtı.
Tartışmaya açılan konulardan bazıları toplumsal hareketler, orduların
rolü, gençliğin siyasallaşması ve sosyal medya ağlar oldu. Bu yeniden
düşünme çabaları aynı zamanda devrim kuramlarına da etki edecektir. Medya ve ayaklanmaların aktörlerinden bazıları bu ayaklanmaları
en yeni devrimci dalga olarak adlandırmakta çok hızlı davrandılar. Bu
makale böyle bir adlandırmanın uygunluğunu incelemektedir. Makale,
devrim kuramlarının bize sunduğu analitik araçları da değerlendirerek,
bu ayaklanmaların ertesindeki Ortadoğu’nun öğrettiği dersleri dikkate
alan üç temel öneride bulunmaktadır. Devrimci durumlar ile sonuçlar
arasındaki ayrım, devrimci değişimin farklı çeşitleri arasındaki ayrımlar
ve uluslararası belirleyenler ile ülke içindeki belirleyenler arasındaki iliş-
ki tartışılmakta ve bu başlıklarda yeniden araştırma tasarımına katkıda
bulunacak öneriler sunulmaktadır. Makale bu ayaklanmaları kuramsallaştırma
ihtiyacının altını çizmekte ve böyle bir çabanın yeni nesil devrim
kuramlarına sağlayacağı katkılara işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Arap Ayaklanmaları, Ortadoğu’da Devrimler, Devrim Kuramları, Devrimci Durumlar, Devrimlerde İç-Dış Siyaset Etkile- şimleri

Theories of Revolutions and Arab Uprisings: The Lessons from the Middle East

Öz

The recent Arab Uprisings will lead to significant rethinking of critical issues in the region as well as important topics in social theory. Social movements, the role of militaries, the politicization of the youth, and social media networks are among these issues. These rethinking efforts will also have implications for the theories of revolutions. The media as well as some of the actors involved were quick to label these uprisings as the last contemporary wave of revolutions. This article explores whether the use of this label is appropriate. Evaluating the analytical tools that the theories of revolutions offer us, the article puts forward three main suggestions that follow the lessons from the Middle East in the aftermath of these uprisings. The distinction between revolutionary situations and outcomes, between types of revolutionary change and between international and domestic determinants is discussed and suggestions are made to contribute to a new research agenda. The article underlines the need to theorize these uprisings and points out to the benefits of doing so for the new generation of theories of revolutions

Anahtar Kelimeler

Arab Uprisings, Revolutions in the Middle East, Theories of Revolutions, Revolutionary Situations, International-Domestic Interaction in Revolutions

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