Rakipler Arasında İşbirliğinin Sınırları: 2002’den Bu Yana Türk-İran İlişkileri

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2, 111 - 144, 15.07.2013

Tolga Demiryol

Öz

Son on yıldır Türkiye ve İran arasında süregelen uzlaşma ortamı uzun
vadeli amaçların sağlam bir uyumundan ziyade kısa vadeli ekonomik
ve güvenlik çıkarlarının geçici olarak örtüşmesine dayanmaktadır. Türkiye ve İran arasındaki işbirliğine dayalı ilişkilerin devamına engel teşkil
eden iki temel neden vardır. Öncelikle, Türkiye ve İran arasındaki yoğun
ticaret bu iki ülke arasındaki siyasi işbirliğini kolaylaştırmış görünse de
artan ticaret hacminin ardında göreceli ekonomik kazanımların asimetrik
dağılımı yatmaktadır ki bu eşitsizliğin temel unsuru da Türkiye’nin
İran’a enerji alanında bağımlı oluşudur. Bu dengesiz ekonomik ilişki
uzun vadede iki ülke arasında işbirliğinden çok çatışmayı arttıracaktır.
İkinci olarak, Türkiye-İran uzlaşmasının güvenlik ayağı da zayıf bir temel
üzerine kuruludur. Türkiye’nin İran ile güvenlik konusunda ilk planda
işbirliği yapmasının ardında yatan temel stratejik nedenler −özellikle
de İran’ın bölgedeki ayrılıkçı güçlere karşı Türkiye’nin iç güvenliğine
katkıda bulunacağı düşüncesi− artık geçerliliğini yitirmiştir. İran, son
dönemde PKK’ya karşı Türkiye ile ortak hareket etme konusunda isteksiz
görünmektedir. Ayrıca Arap Baharı ve İran’ın nükleer güç elde
etme konusundaki ısrarı, Türkiye ve İran arasındaki güvenlik ilişkisini
daha da gergin bir hale getirmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Türkiye, İran, Dengeleme, Ekonomik Yönden Kar- şılıklı Bağımlılık, Enerji, Nükleer Silahlar

The Limits to Cooperation Between Rivals: Turkish-Iranian Relations Since 2002

Öz

The rapprochement between Turkey and Iran over the last decade has been based on a constellation of short-term economic and security interests rather than a robust alignment of long-term objectives. There are two reasons as to why the cooperative relations between Turkey and Iran are bound to collapse. First, even though growing economic ties between Turkey and Iran have facilitated the political cooperation between the two countries, beneath the growing trade volume lies an extremely asymmetric distribution of relative gains, primarily due to the predominance of energy. This imbalanced economic exchange is more likely to foster conflict than cooperation in the long run. Second, the security leg of the Turkish-Iranian rapprochement is also on shaky ground. The initial strategic rationale behind the Turkey’s security partnership with Iran, i.e. that the expected benefits of cooperating with Iran to counter separationist movements in the region would outweigh the potential threats that Iran could pose against Turkey’s security, is no longer valid. Iran appears unwilling to act in harmony with Turkey against the PKK. Furthermore, the Arab Spring and Iran’s continual interest in acquiring nuclear weapons drive a wedge between the security interests of Turkey and Iran

Anahtar Kelimeler

Turkey, Iran, Balancing, Economic Interdependence, Energy, Nuclear Weapons

Kaynakça

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