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Kaybolan Fırsatlarla Geçen On Yıl: Beşar Esad Yönetimindeki Suriye’nin Önceki ve Şimdiki Dinamikleri

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2, 9 - 29, 15.07.2013

Öz

2012 Kasım ayının ortalarında Doha’da kurulan Suriye Muhalif ve Devrimci
Güçler Ulusal Koalisyonu Suriye’deki çatışmaya yeni bir ulusal ve uluslararası boyut kazandırmıştır. 100’den fazla ülkenin bu platformu
Suriye halkının tek meşru temsilcisi olarak tanıyor olması Esad rejimine
fazladan bir siyasi baskı uygulamaktadır. Cumhurbaşkanı Esad tamamen
askeri yollara başvurmayı seçtikten sonra siyasi olarak tüm seçenekleri
tükenmiştir. Bu makale, barışçı gösteriler başladığında rejimin
başvurduğu “güvenlik refleksi”ne bir açıklama getirmek amacıyla Esad
yönetimi altında kaybolan fırsatlarla geçen on yılın analizini sunmaktadır.
Makalede Suriye intifadası, Suriye’nin olaylar başladığından bu
yana farklı bir yola başvurmasına rağmen siyasi anlamda Arap Baharı
bağlamında ele alınmaktadır. Suriye muhalefetinin güçlü bir şekilde bö-
lümlenmesi Suriye’ye “özgü” bir durumdur. Muhalefet içindeki temel
bölünmeler bu çalışmada ayrıntılı bir şekilde ele alınmaktadır. Son olarak
ise mevcut durumda muhtemel görünen beş senaryo sunulmaktadır
ve bu senaryoların tamamı mevcut durumun vermiş olduğu izlenim
kadar olumsuz bir tablo çizmez.

Kaynakça

  • Abbas, Hassan, “The Dynamics of the Uprising in Syria”, Arab Re- form Brief, October 2011 (also published in inamo, winter 2011). al-Azm, Sadiq J., “The Arab Spring: Why exactly at this Time?”, Rea- son Papers, Vol. 33 Fall 2011.
  • Bayat, Asef, “The Post-Islamist Revolutions: What the Revolts in the Arab World Mean”, Foreign Affairs Snapshot, 26 April 2011.
  • Council on Foreign Relations/Foreign Affairs (ed.), The New Arab Revolt: What Happened, What It Means, and What Comes Next, (New York, 2011).
  • Dam, Nikolaos van, The Struggle for Power in Syria, (London, 2011)
  • (4th ed.). Filiu, Jean-Pierre, The Arab Revolution: Ten Lessons from the Democratic Uprising, (London 2011)
  • Fischer, Susanne, “Das Ende der Angst: Syriens junge Generation kämpft für den Sturz des Assad-Regimes”, Internationale Politik, Berlin September 2011.
  • George, Alan, Neither Bread Nor Freedom, (London, 2003)
  • Goodarzi, Jubin M., Syria and Iran: Diplomatic Alliance and Power Politics in the Middle East, (London, 20089.
  • Hinnebusch, Raymond A., “Syria: From ‘Authoritarian Upgrading’ to Revolution?”, International Affairs , Vol. 88, No. 1, 2012.
  • __________ “Syria under Bashar: Between Economic Reform and Na- tionalist Realpolitik”, , Raymond Hinnebusch, Marwan J Kabalan,. Bassma Kodmani, David Lesch, (eds.), Syrian Foreign Policy and the United States: From Bush to Obama, (Fife, 2010).
  • __________, “Syria after the Iraq War: Between the Neo-con Offensive and Internal Reform,” DOI-Focus No. 14, March 2004.
  • _________, Syria: Revolution from Above, (London/New York, 2001).
  • _________, Authoritarian Power and State Formation in Ba’thist Syria: Army, Party, and Peasant, (Boulder, 1990).
  • Hinnebusch, Raymond/Kabalan, Marwan J./Kodmani, Bassma/ Lesch, David (eds.), Syrian Foreign Policy and the United States: From Bush to Obama, Fife 2010.
  • Ismail, Salwa, “The Syrian Uprising: Imagining and Performing the Nation”, Studies in Ethnicity and Nationalism, Volume 11, Issue 3, December 2011.
  • _________, “Silencing the Voice of Freedom in Syria”, in: Index on Censorship, 8 July 2011 (www.indexoncensorship.org/2011/07/ silencing-the-voice-of-freedom-in-syria)
  • __________, Changing Social Structure, Shifting Alliances and Au- thoritarianism in Syria, Fred Lawson, (ed.): Demystifying Syria, (London, 2009).
  • Kawakibi, Salam, The Private Media in Syrian, Syrian Research and Communication Center (SRCC), 30 August 2010 (http://www. strescom.org/research/private-media-syria).
  • Khoury, Philip S., “The Paradoxical in Arab Nationalism: Interwar Syria Revisited,” in Jankowski, James/Gershoni, Israel (ed.): Re- thinking Nationalism in the Arab Middle East, (New York, 1997).
  • Landis, Joshua, The United States and Reform in Syria, The Syria Review, June 2004.
  • Lawson, Fred (ed.): Demystifying Syria, (London, 2009).
  • Lesch, David, The New Lion of Damascus: Bashar al-Asad and Mod- ern Syria, (New Haven, 2005).
  • Leverett, Flynt, Inheriting Syria: Bashar’s Trial by Fire, (Washington, D.C., 2005).
  • Lobmeyer, Hans Günter, Opposition und Widerstand in Syrien, (Hamburg, 1995).
  • Maktabi, Rania, “State, Law and Religion—Gendered Debates on Family Law in Syria and Lebanon” in Raymond Hinnebusch and Tina Zintl, (eds.), Syria under Bashar al-Asad, 2000-2010: Political
  • Economy and International Relations, (New York, forthcoming). Moubayed, Sami, “Syria’s new Constitution: Too little, too late”, in: Mideast Views, 14 February 2012.
  • _________, “Challenge for Political Islam in Syria”, in: Mideast Views, December 2011.
  • ________- , “More Missed Chances: An offer Syria shouldn’t have refused“, Mideast Views, 21 September 2011.
  • _________, Steel and Silk: Men and Women Who Shaped Syria 1900- , (Seattle, 2006).
  • Pace, Joe and , Joshua Landis, “The Syrian Opposition: The strug- gle for unity and relevance 2003–2008”, in Fred Lawson, (ed.), De- mystifying Syria, London 2009.
  • Perthes, Volker: Syria under Bashar al-Asad: Modernization and the Limits of Change, Adelphi-Paper 366, (London, 2004).
  • Pierret, Thomas, Baas et islam en Syrie : La dynastie Assad face aux oulémas, (Paris, 2011).
  • Rabil, Robert G., Syria, the United States, and the War on Terror in the Middle East, (Santa Barbara, 2006).
  • Rabinovich, Itamar: The View From Damascus: State, Political Com- munity, and Foreign Relations in Twentieth-Century Syria, (Edgware, ). Saliba, Najib E., “The Syrian Regime: Struggle for Survival and Im- plications for its Fall”, The Middle East Magazine, 24 September struggle-for-survival-and-implications-for-its-fall). Seale, Patrick, Asad: The Struggle for the Middle East, (London: ). Seifan, Samir, Syria on the Path of Economic Reform, St. Andrew’s Papers on Contemporary Syria, (Fife, 2010).
  • Shatz, Adam, “Prophecy and Deliverance: Reading al-Azm in an-Age of Revolution”, Jadaliyya, 20 December 2011. (http://www.jadali- yya.com/pages/index/3674/prophecy-and-deliverance_reading-al- azm-in-an-age-).
  • Tabler, Andrew, In the Lion’s Den: An Eyewitness Account of Wash- ington’s Battle with Syria, (Chicago, 2011).
  • Wedeen, Lisa, Ambiguities of Domination: Politics, Rhetoric, and Sym- bols in Contemporary Syria, (Chicago/London, 1999).
  • Wieland, Carsten, Syria—A Decade of Lost Chances: Repression and Revolution from Damascus Spring to Arab Spring, (Seattle, 2012).
  • __________,“Between Democratic Hope and Centrifugal Fears: Syr- ia’s Unexpected Open-ended Intifada”, International Politics and So- ciety, Vol. 4, 2011.
  • _________, “Syrian Scenarios and the Levant’s Insecure Future”, in: Orient, III, 2011.
  • _________, “Asad’s Lost Chances”, in: Middle East Research and In- formation Project, 14 April 2011.
  • _________,“The Present Context of Syria’s Foreign Policy, Change in the Region and Stagnation at Home”, CMES-Report No. 2, June , _________, “Turkey’s Political-emotional Transition”, in: OpenDemoc- racy, 6 October 2009.
  • ________, Syria - Ballots or Bullets? Democracy, Islamism, and Secu- larism in the Levant, (Seattle, 2006).
  • _________, Syria at Bay: Secularism, Islamism, and “Pax America- na”, (London, 2006).
  • Ziadeh, Radwan, Power and Policy in Syria: Intelligence Services, Foreign Relations and Democracy in the Modern Middle East, (Lon- don, 2011).

A Decade of Lost Chances: Past and Present Dynamics of Bashar al-Asad’s Syria

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2, 9 - 29, 15.07.2013

Öz

The forming of the new National Coalition of Revolutionary and Oppositional Forces in Doha in mid-November 2012 added a new domestic and international dimension to the conflict in Syria. The recognition of this platform as the sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people by more than 100 countries puts additional political pressure on the regime of Bashar al-Asad. The President has run out of political options after he had chosen to act exclusively militarily. This article looks back at the decade of lost chances under Asad in order to find an explanation to the “security reflex” that the regime opted for when the peaceful demonstrations started out. In this article, the Syrian intifada is placed into a political context of the Arab Spring in which it belongs despite the different path that Syria has been taking since then. The strong fragmentation of the Syrian opposition is part of the Syrian “specialty”. The main cleavages are elaborated here. Finally, five scenarios are offered that look possible at the moment of publication, not all of them are as negative as the current situation suggests

Kaynakça

  • Abbas, Hassan, “The Dynamics of the Uprising in Syria”, Arab Re- form Brief, October 2011 (also published in inamo, winter 2011). al-Azm, Sadiq J., “The Arab Spring: Why exactly at this Time?”, Rea- son Papers, Vol. 33 Fall 2011.
  • Bayat, Asef, “The Post-Islamist Revolutions: What the Revolts in the Arab World Mean”, Foreign Affairs Snapshot, 26 April 2011.
  • Council on Foreign Relations/Foreign Affairs (ed.), The New Arab Revolt: What Happened, What It Means, and What Comes Next, (New York, 2011).
  • Dam, Nikolaos van, The Struggle for Power in Syria, (London, 2011)
  • (4th ed.). Filiu, Jean-Pierre, The Arab Revolution: Ten Lessons from the Democratic Uprising, (London 2011)
  • Fischer, Susanne, “Das Ende der Angst: Syriens junge Generation kämpft für den Sturz des Assad-Regimes”, Internationale Politik, Berlin September 2011.
  • George, Alan, Neither Bread Nor Freedom, (London, 2003)
  • Goodarzi, Jubin M., Syria and Iran: Diplomatic Alliance and Power Politics in the Middle East, (London, 20089.
  • Hinnebusch, Raymond A., “Syria: From ‘Authoritarian Upgrading’ to Revolution?”, International Affairs , Vol. 88, No. 1, 2012.
  • __________ “Syria under Bashar: Between Economic Reform and Na- tionalist Realpolitik”, , Raymond Hinnebusch, Marwan J Kabalan,. Bassma Kodmani, David Lesch, (eds.), Syrian Foreign Policy and the United States: From Bush to Obama, (Fife, 2010).
  • __________, “Syria after the Iraq War: Between the Neo-con Offensive and Internal Reform,” DOI-Focus No. 14, March 2004.
  • _________, Syria: Revolution from Above, (London/New York, 2001).
  • _________, Authoritarian Power and State Formation in Ba’thist Syria: Army, Party, and Peasant, (Boulder, 1990).
  • Hinnebusch, Raymond/Kabalan, Marwan J./Kodmani, Bassma/ Lesch, David (eds.), Syrian Foreign Policy and the United States: From Bush to Obama, Fife 2010.
  • Ismail, Salwa, “The Syrian Uprising: Imagining and Performing the Nation”, Studies in Ethnicity and Nationalism, Volume 11, Issue 3, December 2011.
  • _________, “Silencing the Voice of Freedom in Syria”, in: Index on Censorship, 8 July 2011 (www.indexoncensorship.org/2011/07/ silencing-the-voice-of-freedom-in-syria)
  • __________, Changing Social Structure, Shifting Alliances and Au- thoritarianism in Syria, Fred Lawson, (ed.): Demystifying Syria, (London, 2009).
  • Kawakibi, Salam, The Private Media in Syrian, Syrian Research and Communication Center (SRCC), 30 August 2010 (http://www. strescom.org/research/private-media-syria).
  • Khoury, Philip S., “The Paradoxical in Arab Nationalism: Interwar Syria Revisited,” in Jankowski, James/Gershoni, Israel (ed.): Re- thinking Nationalism in the Arab Middle East, (New York, 1997).
  • Landis, Joshua, The United States and Reform in Syria, The Syria Review, June 2004.
  • Lawson, Fred (ed.): Demystifying Syria, (London, 2009).
  • Lesch, David, The New Lion of Damascus: Bashar al-Asad and Mod- ern Syria, (New Haven, 2005).
  • Leverett, Flynt, Inheriting Syria: Bashar’s Trial by Fire, (Washington, D.C., 2005).
  • Lobmeyer, Hans Günter, Opposition und Widerstand in Syrien, (Hamburg, 1995).
  • Maktabi, Rania, “State, Law and Religion—Gendered Debates on Family Law in Syria and Lebanon” in Raymond Hinnebusch and Tina Zintl, (eds.), Syria under Bashar al-Asad, 2000-2010: Political
  • Economy and International Relations, (New York, forthcoming). Moubayed, Sami, “Syria’s new Constitution: Too little, too late”, in: Mideast Views, 14 February 2012.
  • _________, “Challenge for Political Islam in Syria”, in: Mideast Views, December 2011.
  • ________- , “More Missed Chances: An offer Syria shouldn’t have refused“, Mideast Views, 21 September 2011.
  • _________, Steel and Silk: Men and Women Who Shaped Syria 1900- , (Seattle, 2006).
  • Pace, Joe and , Joshua Landis, “The Syrian Opposition: The strug- gle for unity and relevance 2003–2008”, in Fred Lawson, (ed.), De- mystifying Syria, London 2009.
  • Perthes, Volker: Syria under Bashar al-Asad: Modernization and the Limits of Change, Adelphi-Paper 366, (London, 2004).
  • Pierret, Thomas, Baas et islam en Syrie : La dynastie Assad face aux oulémas, (Paris, 2011).
  • Rabil, Robert G., Syria, the United States, and the War on Terror in the Middle East, (Santa Barbara, 2006).
  • Rabinovich, Itamar: The View From Damascus: State, Political Com- munity, and Foreign Relations in Twentieth-Century Syria, (Edgware, ). Saliba, Najib E., “The Syrian Regime: Struggle for Survival and Im- plications for its Fall”, The Middle East Magazine, 24 September struggle-for-survival-and-implications-for-its-fall). Seale, Patrick, Asad: The Struggle for the Middle East, (London: ). Seifan, Samir, Syria on the Path of Economic Reform, St. Andrew’s Papers on Contemporary Syria, (Fife, 2010).
  • Shatz, Adam, “Prophecy and Deliverance: Reading al-Azm in an-Age of Revolution”, Jadaliyya, 20 December 2011. (http://www.jadali- yya.com/pages/index/3674/prophecy-and-deliverance_reading-al- azm-in-an-age-).
  • Tabler, Andrew, In the Lion’s Den: An Eyewitness Account of Wash- ington’s Battle with Syria, (Chicago, 2011).
  • Wedeen, Lisa, Ambiguities of Domination: Politics, Rhetoric, and Sym- bols in Contemporary Syria, (Chicago/London, 1999).
  • Wieland, Carsten, Syria—A Decade of Lost Chances: Repression and Revolution from Damascus Spring to Arab Spring, (Seattle, 2012).
  • __________,“Between Democratic Hope and Centrifugal Fears: Syr- ia’s Unexpected Open-ended Intifada”, International Politics and So- ciety, Vol. 4, 2011.
  • _________, “Syrian Scenarios and the Levant’s Insecure Future”, in: Orient, III, 2011.
  • _________, “Asad’s Lost Chances”, in: Middle East Research and In- formation Project, 14 April 2011.
  • _________,“The Present Context of Syria’s Foreign Policy, Change in the Region and Stagnation at Home”, CMES-Report No. 2, June , _________, “Turkey’s Political-emotional Transition”, in: OpenDemoc- racy, 6 October 2009.
  • ________, Syria - Ballots or Bullets? Democracy, Islamism, and Secu- larism in the Levant, (Seattle, 2006).
  • _________, Syria at Bay: Secularism, Islamism, and “Pax America- na”, (London, 2006).
  • Ziadeh, Radwan, Power and Policy in Syria: Intelligence Services, Foreign Relations and Democracy in the Modern Middle East, (Lon- don, 2011).
Toplam 45 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Diğer ID JA34RB38YE
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Carsten Wieland Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 15 Temmuz 2013
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2013 Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

Chicago Wieland, Carsten. “Kaybolan Fırsatlarla Geçen On Yıl: Beşar Esad Yönetimindeki Suriye’nin Önceki Ve Şimdiki Dinamikleri”. Ortadoğu Etütleri 4, sy. 2 (Temmuz 2013): 9-29.

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