Revisiting the Saudi Position During the Iran-Iraq War through the Lens of Balance of Threat Theory

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 118 - 134, 30.06.2017

Mehmet Rakipoğlu

Öz

Iran-Iraq war was a high intensity conflict between two major powers of the Gulf region that lasted almost nine years, when both countries experienced significant losses including manpower, national economic indicators and intrinsic prestige. Earlier debates on Iran-Iraq war expressed it as an indicator of longer-term fluctuations in the geopolitics of the Gulf region. In fact, this study presents the position of Saudi Arabia during Iraq-Iran war in the light of Stephen Walt’s Balance of Threat theory. This study is followed by the argument that Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) successfully balanced its perceived threat from Iran during Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s through supporting Iraq. Saudi tendency for supporting Iraq sought its concerns behind hostile revolutionary (1979) regime in Iran. Therefore, Iraq was realized as a credible defense shield for other Gulf States for posing a momentous dent to Iranian military power in the ongoing war. So, the authors have harnessed the concept of Balance of Threat theory for estimating the pro-Iraqi stand of Saudi Arabia for its desire to balance the threat coming from Iran.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Saudi Arabia, Iraq- Iran war, Balance of threat, Stephen Walt

İran-Irak Savaşı Sırasında Suudi Konumunu Tehdit Dengesi Teorisi Merceğiyle Yeniden Ele Almak

Öz

İran-Irak savaşı, her iki ülkenin de insan gücü, ulusal ekonomik göstergeler ve gerçek prestij gibi önemli kayıplar yaşadığı, yaklaşık dokuz yıl süren ve Körfez bölgesinin iki büyük gücü arasında yüksek yoğunlukla gerçekleşen bir çatışmaydı. İran-Irak savaşıyla ilgili daha önceki tartışmalar söz konusu savaşı, Körfez bölgesinin jeopolitiğinde uzun vadeli dalgalanmaların bir göstergesi olarak değerlendirdiler. Aslında bu çalışma, Stephen-Walt’un Tehdit Dengesi teorisi ışığında Suudi Arabistan'ın Irak-İran savaşı esnasında aldığı konumunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu çalışmayı, Suudi Arabistan Krallığı'nın 1980'lerde İran-Irak savaşı sırasında İran'dan algıladığı tehdidi Irak'ı destekleyerek başarılı bir şekilde dengelediği argümanı izlemektedir. Suudi Arabistan'ın Irak'ı destekleme eğiliminde, İran'daki düşman devrimci (1979) rejimin rolü büyük olmuştur. Bu nedenle Irak, devam eden savaşta İran askeri gücüne önemli kayıplar yaşattığı için diğer Körfez Ülkeleri tarafından güvenilir bir savunma kalkanı olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Bu nedenle, yazarlar, İran'dan gelen tehdidi dengeleme arzusuyla Suudi Arabistan'ın Irak yanlısı tutumunu incelemek için Tehdit Dengesi teorisi kavramından yararlanmışlardır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Suudi Arabistan, Irak-İran savaşı, Tehdit dengesi, Stephen Walt

Kaynakça

• Abdulghani, Jasim M. Iraq and Iran: The Years of Crisis, First Edition, London and New York: Routledge, 2011.
• Akdoğan, İsmail. “The relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (1979-2011, in Turkish)” (Master’s Thesis, Abant İzzet Baysal University, 2013.
• Al Saud, Turki Al Faisal bin Abdul Aziz. “Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Policy”, Middle East Policy 20, no. 4 (2013)
• Amiri, Reza Ekthtiari and Soltani, Fakhreddin. “Iraqi invasion of Kuwait as Turning Point in Iran- Saudi Relationship”, Journal of Politics and Law 4, no.1: 2011.
• Amiri Reza, Samsu Ku, and Fereidouni Hassan. “The Hajj and Iran’s Foreign Policy towards Saudi Arabia,” Journal of Asian and African Studies 46, No. 6: (2011)
• Cooper, Scott. “State-Centric Balance of Threat Theory, Security Studies 13, no.2 (2003): 306-349.
• Darwich, May. “Idential Material Forces in Threat Perception: The Divergent Cases of Syria and Saudi Arabia During the Iran- Iraq War (1980-1988)”, Journal of Global Security Studies 1, no.2 (2016)
• Dyson, Tom. “Balancing Threat, not Capabilities: European Defence Cooperation as Reformed Bandwagoning.”, Contemporary Security Policy 34, no.2 (2013): 387-391.
• Furtig, Henner. “Conflict and Cooperation in the Persian Gulf: The Interregional Order and US Policy,” Middle East Journal 61, no.4 (2007)
• Gause III, F. Gregory. “Balancing What? Threat Perception and Alliance Choice in the Gulf”, Security Studies 13, no:2 (2003): 273-305.
• Gangale, Thomas. “Alliance Theory: Balancing, Bandwagoning, and Détente,” OPS-Alaska and San Francisco State University International Relations 720, 2003, web address: https://ops-alaska.com/publications/2003/2003_AllianceTheory.pdf
• He, Kai. Undermining Adversaries: Unipolarity, Threat Perception, and Negative Balancing Strategies after the Cold War, Routledge, Security Studies 21, no.2 (2012).
• Heydarian, Richard Javad. “Iran-Saudi Relations: Rising Tensions and Growing Rivalry,” Foreign Policy in Focus, August 2010, https://fpif.org/iran-saudi_relations_rising_tensions_and_growing_rivalry/ Jahner, Ariel. “Saudi Arabia and Iran: The Struggle for Power and Influence in the Gulf”, International Affairs Review XX, No.3 (2012)
• Kaikobad, Kaiyan. The Shatt al-Arab Boundary Question: A Legal Reappraisal, Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1998
• Nevo, Joseph , “Religion and National Identity in Saudi Arabia”, Middle Eastern Studies 34, no:3. 1998.
• Nonneman, Gerd. The Gulf states and the Iran-Iraq War: Pattern shift and continuities, (in) L. Potter ve G. Sick (eds.), Iran, Iraq and the legacies of war, US: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004.
• Okruhlik, Gwenn. “Saudi Arabian-Iranian Relations: External Rapprochement and Internal Consolidation,” Middle East Policy 10, No. 2 (2003)
• Priess, David. “Balance ‐of‐Threat Theory and the Genesis of the Gulf Cooperation Council: An Interpretative Case Study”, Security Studies 5, no.4 (1996): 143-17
• Schweller, Randal. “Unanswered Threats: A Neoclassical Realist Theory of Underbalancing,” International Security 29, No.2 (2004)
• Segal, David. “The Iran-Iraq War: A Military Analysis,” Foreign Affairs 66, no.5 (1998)
• Venter, Al J. Iran’s Nuclear Option: Tehran’s Quest for the Atom Bomb, Philadelphia: Casemate, 2005.
• Walt, Stephen. The origins of alliances, Ithaca: New York, 1987.
• --------. The progressive power of realism, American Political Science Review 91, no.4 (1997)
• --------. “Keeping the world “off balance”: Self- Self-restraint and U.S. foreign policy”. In America unrivaled: The future of the balance of power, ed. J. G. Ikenberry, Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2002.
• -------- “Balancing Threat: The United States and The Middle East”, Yale University of International Affairs 5, no.2 (2010)
• Waltz, Kenneth. Theory of International Politics, Addison – Wesley Publishing Company: California, 1979.
• Watson, Micheal P. Balance of Power vs. Balance of Threat: The Case of China and Pakistan, United States Marine Corps Command and Staff College Master of Military Studies, 2002.
• Wehrey, Frederic and others. Saudi Iranian Relations Since the Fall of Saddam: Rivarly, Cooperation, and Implications for US Policy, Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2009.
• Wynbrandt, James. A brief history of Saudi Arabia, Second Edition, New York, NY: Infobas Publishing, 2004.
• “Responding to Escalation in the Iran- Iraq War”, National Security Decision Directive: The White House, Washington, 25 May 1984. System II, 90635 No. (https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nsdd/nsdd-141.pdf )
• Study.com. 2018. Balance of Threat Theory: Assumptions & Example. Study.com. Accessed April 12, 2018. https://study.com/academy/lesson/balance-of-threat-theory-assumptions-example.html.