Bid for Regional Leadership and Saudi Arabia: Changing Threats and New Foreign Policy

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 1, 16 - 47, 30.06.2020

Bora Bayraktar

Öz

Saudi Arabia has been pursuing more assertive foreign policy since the start of uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East which is widely known as the “Arab Spring.” By forming new alliances, by using force in different conflict zones and by implementing reform in its domestic political and social structure Saudi Arabia has been reformatting its foreign policy and seek leadership in the region. Direct intervention to Bahrain’s uprising against the government, sending military troops to Yemen, implementing blokade on Qatar, distancing itself from Israeli-Palestinian question, new armament program are some examples of this new policy. In this article, the reasons of this change in Saudi foreign policy and its consequences for the region is analysed through regional systemic changes, domestic political factors and theory of rational choice.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Saudi Arabia, security, geopolitics, Iran, Arab Spring

Bölgesel Liderlik Arayışı ve Suudi Arabistan: Farklılaşan Tehditler ve Yeni Dış Politika

Öz

Suudi Arabistan Arap Baharı da denilen, Kuzey Afrika ve Ortadoğu’da etkili olan bir dizi isyan dalgasından bu yana daha iddialı bir dış politika izlemektedir. Yeni ittifaklar kurarak, askeri güç kullanarak, kendi içinde gerçekleştirmeye çalıştığı siyasi ve sosyal reform denemeleriyle Suudi Arabistan dış politikasını yeniden biçimlendirmeye ve bölgede liderlik etmeye çalışmaktadır. Bahreyn’deki ayaklanmaya doğrudan müdahale, Yemen iç savaşına asker göndererek katılma, Katar’a yönelik abluka denemesi ve İsrail-Filistin sorunu ile arasına mesafe koyma, silahlanma politikası bu yeni politikanın uygulanmasına bazı örnekler olarak gösterilebilir. Bu makalede Suudi Arabistan’ın değişmekte olan dış politikasının gerekçeleri ve bunun bölgeye olası etkileri sistemdeki değişiklikler, iç siyasi faktörler ve gerçekçi seçim teorisi üzerinden açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Suudi Arabistan, Basra Körfezi, Güvenlik, İran, Jeopolitik

Kaynakça

• Alabass, Bassem Abo. “Egypt to sign final financial agreements with Saudi Arabia worth $22bln: Officials,” Al Ahram Online, 5.4.2016. http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsAFCON/2019/198847.aspx
• Alden, Chris and Amnon Aran, Foreign Policy Analysis: New approaches, London and New York: Routledge, 2017.
• Al Ahram Weekly. “Bin Salman in Washington,” 26.03.2018
• Al Ahram Online. “Egypt, Saudi Arabia issue ‘Cairo Declaration’ to strengthen cooperation,” 30.07.2015, http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/136591/Egypt/Politics-/Egypt,-Saudi-Arabia-issue-Cairo-Declaration-to-str.aspx
• Al Araby. “Saudi-Israeli relations: The emergence of a new alliance,” Al Araby, erişim: 01.08.2019, https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/indepth/2019/8/14/saudi-israeli-relations-the-emergence-of-a-new-alliance
• Arab News. “Mike Pence: Iran is greatest threat to peace and security in the Middle East Monday,” erişim: 18.07.2019, 30.09.2019 https://www.arabnews.com/node/1452091/middle-east
• Atwan, Abdel Bari Atwan. “Why bin Laden was radicalized,” CNN, erişim: 15.05.2018. http://edition.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/05/17/osama.bin.laden.al.qaeda/index.html
• Aydın, Mustafa. “Determinants of Turkish Foreign Policy: Historical Framework and Traditional Inputs,” Middle Eastern Studies, no.4, (October, 1999): 152-186.
• Baradei, Mohamed El. Introductory Statement to the Board of Governors, IAEA, erişim: 11.05.2018. https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/statements/introductory-statement-board-governors-47
• Bayoumy, Yara. “Obama administration arms sales offers to Saudi top $115 billion.” Reuters, 7.9.2016 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-saudi-security/obama-administration-arms-sales-offers-to-saudi-top-115-billion-report-idUSKCN11D2JQ
• BBC. “Congress passes Saudi 9/11 lawsuits bill,” BBC News, 9.09.2016, erişim: 20.07.2019 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-37310593
• BBC. “New clashes in Saudi Arabia leave 'protester' dead 11 February 2012,” erişim: 21.07.2019 BBC News, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16995286
• CIA. “World Fact Book,” erişim: 14.07.2019, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2253rank.html
• CNN. Report: Iran has 'extremely advanced' nuclear program, erişim: 10.05.2018. http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/meast/03/09/iran.nuclear/
• David, Steven. “Explaining Third World Alignment,” World Politics 43, no.2, (1991): 233-256
• “Detailed results of Census 2010,” General Authority of Statistics, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, erişim: 14.07.2019, https://www.stats.gov.sa/sites/default/files/en-census2010-dtl-result_2_1.pdf
• Eldin, Hatem Ezz. “King Salman’s visit to Cairo,” Al Ahram Weekly, 7-13.04.2016 http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/News/15988.aspx
• Faisal, Prince Turki Al, “Mr. Obama, we are not ‘free riders’,” Al Arabiya, 14.03.2016, erişim:24.07.2019 http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2016/03/14/Mr-Obama-we-are-not-free-riders-.html
• Fisk, Robert. “Why we reject the West – by Osama bin Laden,” The Independent, 10.07.1996. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/why-we-reject-the-west-by-osama-bin-laden-a7033906.html
• Friedman, Ezra. “The solidifying Arab-Israeli Alliance,” Global Risks Insights, 23.01.2019 https://globalriskinsights.com/2019/01/the-solidifying-of-the-arab-israeli-alliance/
• Frumin, Aliyah. “Congress Overrides Obama Veto On 9/11 Bill,” NBC News, erişim: 21.07.2019, 28.09. 2016. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/senate-overrides-obama-veto-9-11-bill-n656011
• Gause, F. Gregory III. “Fresh Prince: The Schemes and Dreams of Saudi Arabia’s Next King,” Foreign Affairs, (May/June 2018): https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2018-03-19/fresh-prince
• Gause, F.Gregory III. “The Foreign Policy of Saudi Arabia,” in Foreign Policies of the Middle East States, ed: Raymond Hinnebusch and Anoushiravan Ehteshami (Colorado: Rienner, 2002), 193
• Hubbard, Ben. “Saudi Prince Says Israelis Have Right to ‘Their Own Land’,” New York Times, erişim: 3.08.2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/03/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-mohammed-bin-salman-israel.html
• Jehl, Douglas. "Holy War lured Saudis as Rulers Looked Away", New York Times, 27.12.2001. https://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/27/world/a-nation-challenged-saudi-arabia-holy-war-lured-saudis-as-rulers-looked-away.html
• Jentleson, Bruce W. “Strategic Recalibration,” The Century Foundation, 24.01.2018, https://tcf.org/content/report/strategic-recalibration/?session=1 Kelly, Fergus. “Iran’s Bavar-373 Air Defense Missile System Passes All Initial Tests,” The Defense Post, 6.01.2018. https://thedefensepost.com/2018/01/06/iran-bavar-373-missile-defense-system-passes-tests/
• Koch, Christian. “The GCC as a Regional Security Organization,” Kas International Reports, 2010 26-30 https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=ca542b43-1671-8fab-93f0-397e609e8919&groupId=252038
• Legacy, Robert. Inside The Kingdom, New York: Penguin: 2010
• Linge, Mary Kay. “Trump signs off on $110B Arms Deal in Saudi Arabia,” New York Post, 20.05.2017. https://nypost.com/2017/05/20/trump-signs-off-on-110b-arms-deal-in-saudi-arabia/
• Mahdi, Ahmed. “Energy competition in the Middle East,” Al Ahram Weekly, erişim: 10.05.2018. www.weekly.ahram.org.eg/News/19227.aspx
• Mawji, Omar. “Saudi Arabia comes to the rescue of the Egyptian Economy,” Geopolitical Monitor, 25.04.2016. https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/saudi-arabia-comes-to-the-rescue-of-the-egyptian-economy/
• McShane, Larry. “Saudi Arabia threatens to pull $750B from U.S. economy if Congress allows them to be sued for 9/11 terror attacks” New York Daily News, 16.04.2016. http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/saudi-arabia-warns-750b-response-9-11-liability-suit-article-1.2603675
• Middle East Monitor. “Israel Chief of Staff secretly visited UAE, met Bin Zayed,” Middle East Monitor, erişim: 01.08.2019, https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20181215-israel-chief-of-staff-secretly-visited-uae-met-bin-zayed/
• Mojtahed-Zadeh, Pirouz. Political Geography of the Strait of Hormuz, (London: SOAS,1990), 40-43
• Morin, Jean-Frédéric and Jonathan Paquin, Foreign Policy Analysis, A Toolbox, Palgrave, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-61003-0
• Nouri Haitham. “Neom: Vision of the future,” Al Ahram Weekly, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/News/22913.aspx
• OPEC. “OPEC yıllık İstatistik Bülteni 2017,” erişim: 14.7.2019, http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/data_graphs/330.htm.
• Saudi Vision 2030. https://vision2030.gov.sa/en
• Schwarz, Jon. One Map Explains the Dangerous Saudi-Iranian Conflict, The Intercept, 6.01.2016. https://theintercept.com/2016/01/06/one-map-that-explains-the-dangerous-saudi-iranian-conflict/10:36 p.m.
• Singer, David J., “The Levels of Analysis Problem in International Relations,” in International Politics and Foreign Policy, ed. J. N. Rosenau, New York: Free Press, 1969.
• Spillus, Alex. "Wikileaks: Saudis 'chief funders of al-Qaeda'," Telegraph, 5.12.2010. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8182847/Wikileaks-Saudis-chief-funders-of-al-Qaeda.html
• Tavukçu Sinan. Arab Army / Arab NATO / Islamic Army, Stratejik Düşünce Enstitüsü, 29.08.2018. https://www.sde.org.tr/analysis/sd-analysis-arab-army-arab-nato-islamic-army-analizi-6862
• Toosi, Nahal. “Obama, in an awkward twist, becomes Saudi Arabia's defender”, Politico, 22.09.2016, erişim: 21.07.2019, https://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/obama-saudi-arabia-228521
• Understanding War. “Iran’s New Way of War in Syria,” erişim: 20.07.2019, www.understandingwar.org
• Yakın Doğu Haber. Suudilerden Suriye için tatbikat, 10.02.2016. http://www.ydh.com.tr/HD14457_suudilerden-suriye-icin-tatbikat.html
• Wahed, Mohamed Abdel. “Competition fort he Horn of Africa,” Al Ahram Weekly 1-7 Kasım 2018 http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/News/25734.aspx