FINANCIAL FAILURE ESTIMATE IN BIST COMPANIES WITH ALTMAN (Z-SCORE) AND SPRINGATE (S-SCORE) MODELS

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 1, 1 - 14, 30.06.2017

Erdem Kürklü Zeynep Türk

Öz

The aim of this paper is to measure financial failure level of 7
different sector which is on the BIST index in the period of 2014-2016 and
enable to compare the level of financial failure by years.  Thus, 
it is to test whether any leading indicator, which gives early warning
in detection of companys financial failure exists or not. In this sense,
financial data of 166 companies which are registered in BIST comprises the
sample of the study. The acquired data was measured by the easily computable
and understandable Altman (Z-Score) and Springate (S-Score) models, which give
successful results in forecasting the bankruptcy and financial failures. As a
result of the analysis, Altman model shows that 115 (%69) out of 166 companies
are not under financial stress while Springate model demonstrates that 95 (%57)
companies. Both of the models indicate different levels of financial failure.
Hovewer, similar results are found when analysis of companies are made by
years.

Anahtar Kelimeler

BIST, Financial Failure, Altman, Springate

Kaynakça

• BOZKURT, İ. (2014). ‘‘İflas Olasılığı İle Sistematik Risk İlişkisinin İncelenmesi Ve Etkin İflas Göstergesi Modellerinin Tespiti: Bist’de Ampirik Bir Uygulama’’, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 19(4): 127-142.
• CİVAN, E., DAYI, F. (2014). ‘‘Altman Z Skoru ve Yapay Sinir Ağı Modeli İle Sağlık İşletmelerinde Finansal Başarısızlık Tahmini’’, Akademik Bakış Dergisi, (41).
• HAUSCHILD, D. (2013). ‘‘Altman Z-Score: Not Just for Bankruptcy: From Z-Score to Green Zone’’, Survivability, Amros Corporation.
• HUO, Y. H. (2006). ‘‘Bankruptcy Situation Model in Small Business: The Case of Restaurant Firms’’, Hospital Review, 24(2): 49-58.
• IMANZADEH, P., JOURI, M. M., SEPEHRI, P. (2011). ‘‘A Study of The Application of Springate and Zmijewski Bankruptcy Prediction Models in Firms Accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange’’, Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 5(11).
• JACOBS, J. J. (2007). ‘‘The Application of Failure Prediction Models on non-listed Companies’’, Tshwane University of Technology, Business School.
• JAYADEV, M. (2006). ‘‘Predictive Power of Financial Risk Factors: An Empirical Analysis of Default Companies’’, The Journal for Decision Makers, 31(3), 45-56.
• KIDANE, H. W. (2004). ‘‘Predicting Financial Distrsess in IT and Services Companies in South Africa’’, Department of Business Management, Univarsity of the Free State, Republic of South Africa.
• KUMAR, R. G., KUMAR, K. (2012). ‘‘A Comparison of Bankruptcy Models’’, International Journal of Marketing Financial Services and Management Research, 1(4): 76-86.
• MOGHADAM, A. G., FARD, M. M. G., ZADEH, F. N. (2009). ‘‘Review of The Prediction Power of Altman and Ohlson Models in Predicting Bankruptcy of Listed Companies in Tehran Stock Exchange’’, International Conference on Intellectual Capital Management.
• PONGSATAT, S., RAMAGE, J., LAWRENCE, H. (2004). ‘‘Bankruptcy Prediction for Large and Small Firms in Asia: A Companrison of Ohlson and Altman’’, Journal of Accounting and Croporate Governance, 1(2): 1-13.
• PRANOVA, K., NOER, A. A., MANURUNG, A. H., NUNUG, N. (2010). ‘‘Determinant of Corporate Financial Distress in an Emerging Market Economy: Empirical Evidence from the Indonesian Stock Exchange’’, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics.
• RAHIMIPOOR, A. (2013). ‘‘A Comparative Study of Bankruptcy Prediction Models of Fulmer and Toffler in Firms Accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange’’, Journal of Novel Applied Sciences, 2(10).
• SANOBAR, A. (2012). ‘‘Business Bankruptcy Prediction Models: A Significant Study of the Altman’s Z-Score Model’’, Asian Journal of Management Research, 3(1).
• SEVİL, G., BAŞAR, M., COŞKUN, M. (2013). Finansal Yönetim-II, Açıköğretim Fakültesi Yayınları.
• TERZİ, S. (2011). ‘‘Finansal Rasyolar Yardımıyla Finansal Başarısızlık Tahmini: Gıda Sektöründe Ampirik Bir Araştırma’’, Çukurova Üniversitesi, İİBF Dergisi, 15(1): 1-18.
• YILDIZ, A. (2014). ‘‘Kurumsal Yönetim Endeksi ve Altman Z Skoruna Dayalı Lojistik Regresyon Yöntemiyle Şirketlerin Kredi Derecelendirmesi’’, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 19(3): 71-89.
• YILMAZ, H. ve YILDIRAN, M. (2015). ‘‘Borsada İşlem Gören İşletmelerde Mali Başarısızlık Tahmini: Altman Modeli’nin BIST Uygulaması’’, Aksaray Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 7(3): 43-49.
• ZEYTİNOĞLU, E., AKARIM, Y. D. (2013). ‘‘Financial Failure Prediction Using Financial Ratios: An Empirical Application on Istanbul Stock Exchange’’, Journal of Applied Finance and Banking, 3(3): 107-116.
• ZHANG, T., ENLLINGER, P. (2006). ‘‘Credit Risk and Financial Performance Assessment of Illınois Farmers: A Comparison of Approaches with Farm Accounting Data’’, American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Long Beach California.