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CAPACITY NEEDS FOR CARBON FIBER PRODUCTION IN TURKEY CONSIDERING FUTURE DEMAND FOR OFFSHORE WIND TURBINES

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 1 - 18

Öz

This paper aims to forecast the demand for offshore wind turbines to be in-stalled in Europe and to analyses carbon fiber production capacity for wind turbines in Turkey between 2023-2027. In the coming years, it is inevitable that Turkey will need to increase capacity in order to meet the carbon fiber demand resulting from the increase in offshore wind turbine demand in Europe and to reduce dependency on China in terms of carbon fiber demand. Based on this requirement; the first step in this study is the calculation of the wind turbine demand (MW) that will be installed in Europe and the second step is determining the capacity requirements of carbon fiber production. This study contributes to be able to strengthen our country's position in the wind energy sector and increase carbon fiber production capacity.

Kaynakça

  • Costanzo, G., Brindley, G., Cole, P. (2022). Wind Energy in Europe. Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027. Published in February 2023. Retrieved from: https://windeurope.org/
  • Dhali, Md., Barman, N., Babul Hasan, M. (2019). Determination of Optimal Smoothing Constants for Holt -Winter's Multiplicative Method. Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 67(2): 99-10 4, 2019 (July). Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/dujs.v67i2.54580
  • Durak, M. (2023). Denizüstü Rüzgar Enerjisi Derneği (DÜRED) Türkiye 2. Kamu Çalistayi, 8 Aralık 2023. Retrieved from: http://www.dured.org/
  • DowAksa (2023). The Report of Capacity Increase of Production Facility in Yalova. Stakeholder Engagement Plan. January 2023 Rev 2. Retrieved from: https://www.dowaksa.com/doc/STAKEHOLDER%20ENGAGEMENT%20PLAN.pdf
  • Freeman, K., Frost, C., Hundleby, G., Roberts, A., Valpy, B. (2019). WindEurope, Our energy, our future. How offshore wind will help Europe go carbon-neutral. November 2019. Retrieved from: https://windeurope.org/wp-content/uploads/files/about-wind/reports/WindEurope-Our-Energy-Our-Future.pdf
  • Gill, A., Summers, J., Mears, L. (2016). Cost Estimation Model for PAN Based Carbon Fiber Manufacturing Process. Journal of Manufacturing Science and Engineering · September 2016. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/1.4034713
  • Greenhouse Gas Protocol (2011). Corporate Value Chain Accounting and Reporting Standard. World Resources Institute.
  • GWEC (2023). Global Offshore Wind Report 2023. Global Wind Energy Council, Belgium. Published August 2023. Retrieved from: https://gwec.net/gwecs-global-offshore-wind-report-2023/
  • IEA Renewables (2022). Analysis and forecast to 2027, International Energy Agency. Retrieved from: https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2022
  • ISCC Plus Certificate (2023). Toray Carbon Fibers Europe (accessed 2 January 2024).
  • Joven, R. and Minaie, H. (2018). Thermal properties of autoclave and out-of-autoclave carbon fiber-epoxy composites with different fiber weave configurations. Journal of Composite Materials, Department of Mechanical-Aerospace Engineering, California State University, USA. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0021998318774608
  • Musial, W., Spitsen, P., Duffy, P., Beiter, P., Shieldsm M. (2023). Offshore Wind Market Report: 2023 Edition. U.S. Department of Energy. Retrieved from: https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2023-09/doe-offshore-wind-market-report-2023-edition.pdf
  • Nixon-Pearson, O., Greaves, P., Mamalis, D., Stevenson, L. (2022). WP4 – D1.1. Wind Turbine Blades Design and Manufacturing, Current State of The Art Literature Review. March 2022. Retrieved from: https://ore.catapult.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/CFAR-OC-020-31032022-Wind-Turbine-Blades-Design-and-Manufacturing-Literature-ReviewFinal.pdf
  • Nunna, S., Blanchard, P., Buckmaster, D., Davis, S., Naebe, M. (2019). Development of a cost model for the production of carbon fibres. Institute for Frontier Materials, Deakin University, Waurn Ponds, Victoria, 3216, Australia. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e02698
  • R. Plan, "Communication from the commission to the European parliament", European Commission, Annexes 1 to 3. May 2022, 2022.
  • Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change Directorate (2018). Accession to the Paris Agreement. Paris Agreement - İklim Değişikliği Başkanlığı, (accessed 15 November 2023). Retrieved from: https://iklim.gov.tr/
  • REPowerEU Plan (2022). Communication from the commission to the european parliament. European Commission, Annexes 1 to 3. May 2022. Retrieved from: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM%3A2022%3A230%3AFIN
  • Toray Carbon Fibers (2023). ISCC Plus Certificate. https://toray-cfe.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/ISCC-Plus-Certificate-Sept.-2023-2024-PAN-Plant.pdf (accessed 2 January 2024).
  • Yao, S., Chetan, M., Griffith,T. (2021). Structural design and optimization of a series of 13.2 MW downwind rotors. Wind Engineering, Volume 45, pages 1459-1478, December 2021. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0309524X20984164
  • Vestas Sustainability Report (2020). Sustainability Reports and Environmental Statements. Retrieved from : https://www.vestas.com/en/sustainability/reports-and-ratings
  • WindEurope (2023a), Interactive data & maps. WindEurope Intelligence Platform. Retrieved from: https://windeurope.org/intelligence-platform/interactive-data-and-maps/ (accessed 16 December 2023)
  • WindEurope (2023b), The Turkish wind supply chain keeps getting stronger. https://windeurope.org/newsroom/news/the-turkish-wind-supply-chain-keeps-getting-stronger/#:~:text=WindEurope%20CEO%20Giles%20Dickson%20attended,to%20strengthen%20T%C3%BCrkiye's%20energy%20independence (accessed 26 December 2023).
  • Zahle, F., Bitsche, R., Kim, T., Yde, A. (2013). The DTU 10-MW Reference Wind Turbine, DTU Department of Wind Energy, Denmark. Retrieved from: https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/the-dtu-10-mw-reference-wind-turbine

AVRUPA'DA AÇIK DENİZ RÜZGAR TÜRBİNLERİ TALEP TAHMİNİNE GÖRE TÜRKİYE'DE KARBON ELYAF ÜRETİMİ İÇİN KAPASİTE ANALİZİ

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 1 - 18

Öz

Bu çalışma, 2023-2027 yılları arasında Avrupa'da kurulacak açık deniz rüzgar türbinlerine olan talebi tahmin ederek Türkiye'de rüzgar türbinleri için karbon elyaf üretim kapasitesini analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Önümüzdeki yıllarda, Avrupa'da açık deniz rüzgar türbini talebindeki artıştan kaynaklanan karbon elyaf talebini karşılamak ve karbon elyaf talebi açısından Çin'e olan bağımlılığı azaltmak için Türkiye'nin kapasite artırımına gitmesi kaçınılmazdır. Bu gereklilikten yola çıkarak; bu çalışmada ilk adım Avrupa'da kurulacak rüzgar türbini talebinin (MW) hesaplanması, ikinci adım ise karbon elyaf üretimi kapasite gereksinimlerinin belirlenmesidir. Bu çalışma, ülkemizin rüzgar enerjisi sektöründeki konumunu güçlendirebilmesine ve karbon elyaf üretim kapasitesini artırabilmesine katkı sağlamaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Costanzo, G., Brindley, G., Cole, P. (2022). Wind Energy in Europe. Statistics and the outlook for 2023-2027. Published in February 2023. Retrieved from: https://windeurope.org/
  • Dhali, Md., Barman, N., Babul Hasan, M. (2019). Determination of Optimal Smoothing Constants for Holt -Winter's Multiplicative Method. Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 67(2): 99-10 4, 2019 (July). Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/dujs.v67i2.54580
  • Durak, M. (2023). Denizüstü Rüzgar Enerjisi Derneği (DÜRED) Türkiye 2. Kamu Çalistayi, 8 Aralık 2023. Retrieved from: http://www.dured.org/
  • DowAksa (2023). The Report of Capacity Increase of Production Facility in Yalova. Stakeholder Engagement Plan. January 2023 Rev 2. Retrieved from: https://www.dowaksa.com/doc/STAKEHOLDER%20ENGAGEMENT%20PLAN.pdf
  • Freeman, K., Frost, C., Hundleby, G., Roberts, A., Valpy, B. (2019). WindEurope, Our energy, our future. How offshore wind will help Europe go carbon-neutral. November 2019. Retrieved from: https://windeurope.org/wp-content/uploads/files/about-wind/reports/WindEurope-Our-Energy-Our-Future.pdf
  • Gill, A., Summers, J., Mears, L. (2016). Cost Estimation Model for PAN Based Carbon Fiber Manufacturing Process. Journal of Manufacturing Science and Engineering · September 2016. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/1.4034713
  • Greenhouse Gas Protocol (2011). Corporate Value Chain Accounting and Reporting Standard. World Resources Institute.
  • GWEC (2023). Global Offshore Wind Report 2023. Global Wind Energy Council, Belgium. Published August 2023. Retrieved from: https://gwec.net/gwecs-global-offshore-wind-report-2023/
  • IEA Renewables (2022). Analysis and forecast to 2027, International Energy Agency. Retrieved from: https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2022
  • ISCC Plus Certificate (2023). Toray Carbon Fibers Europe (accessed 2 January 2024).
  • Joven, R. and Minaie, H. (2018). Thermal properties of autoclave and out-of-autoclave carbon fiber-epoxy composites with different fiber weave configurations. Journal of Composite Materials, Department of Mechanical-Aerospace Engineering, California State University, USA. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0021998318774608
  • Musial, W., Spitsen, P., Duffy, P., Beiter, P., Shieldsm M. (2023). Offshore Wind Market Report: 2023 Edition. U.S. Department of Energy. Retrieved from: https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2023-09/doe-offshore-wind-market-report-2023-edition.pdf
  • Nixon-Pearson, O., Greaves, P., Mamalis, D., Stevenson, L. (2022). WP4 – D1.1. Wind Turbine Blades Design and Manufacturing, Current State of The Art Literature Review. March 2022. Retrieved from: https://ore.catapult.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/CFAR-OC-020-31032022-Wind-Turbine-Blades-Design-and-Manufacturing-Literature-ReviewFinal.pdf
  • Nunna, S., Blanchard, P., Buckmaster, D., Davis, S., Naebe, M. (2019). Development of a cost model for the production of carbon fibres. Institute for Frontier Materials, Deakin University, Waurn Ponds, Victoria, 3216, Australia. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e02698
  • R. Plan, "Communication from the commission to the European parliament", European Commission, Annexes 1 to 3. May 2022, 2022.
  • Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change Directorate (2018). Accession to the Paris Agreement. Paris Agreement - İklim Değişikliği Başkanlığı, (accessed 15 November 2023). Retrieved from: https://iklim.gov.tr/
  • REPowerEU Plan (2022). Communication from the commission to the european parliament. European Commission, Annexes 1 to 3. May 2022. Retrieved from: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM%3A2022%3A230%3AFIN
  • Toray Carbon Fibers (2023). ISCC Plus Certificate. https://toray-cfe.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/ISCC-Plus-Certificate-Sept.-2023-2024-PAN-Plant.pdf (accessed 2 January 2024).
  • Yao, S., Chetan, M., Griffith,T. (2021). Structural design and optimization of a series of 13.2 MW downwind rotors. Wind Engineering, Volume 45, pages 1459-1478, December 2021. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0309524X20984164
  • Vestas Sustainability Report (2020). Sustainability Reports and Environmental Statements. Retrieved from : https://www.vestas.com/en/sustainability/reports-and-ratings
  • WindEurope (2023a), Interactive data & maps. WindEurope Intelligence Platform. Retrieved from: https://windeurope.org/intelligence-platform/interactive-data-and-maps/ (accessed 16 December 2023)
  • WindEurope (2023b), The Turkish wind supply chain keeps getting stronger. https://windeurope.org/newsroom/news/the-turkish-wind-supply-chain-keeps-getting-stronger/#:~:text=WindEurope%20CEO%20Giles%20Dickson%20attended,to%20strengthen%20T%C3%BCrkiye's%20energy%20independence (accessed 26 December 2023).
  • Zahle, F., Bitsche, R., Kim, T., Yde, A. (2013). The DTU 10-MW Reference Wind Turbine, DTU Department of Wind Energy, Denmark. Retrieved from: https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/the-dtu-10-mw-reference-wind-turbine
Toplam 23 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Zaman Serileri Analizi, Sürdürülebilir Operasyon Yönetimi, Üretim ve Operasyon Yönetimi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Sezgin Karabacak 0009-0002-4330-1586

Hür Bersam Sidal 0000-0002-3790-9897

Tuğba Yasemin Karagöz 0000-0001-7044-326X

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 30 Aralık 2024
Yayımlanma Tarihi
Gönderilme Tarihi 27 Temmuz 2024
Kabul Tarihi 2 Ekim 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Karabacak, S., Sidal, H. B., & Karagöz, T. Y. (2024). CAPACITY NEEDS FOR CARBON FIBER PRODUCTION IN TURKEY CONSIDERING FUTURE DEMAND FOR OFFSHORE WIND TURBINES. Osmaniye Korkut Ata Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(2), 1-18.
AMA Karabacak S, Sidal HB, Karagöz TY. CAPACITY NEEDS FOR CARBON FIBER PRODUCTION IN TURKEY CONSIDERING FUTURE DEMAND FOR OFFSHORE WIND TURBINES. Osmaniye Korkut Ata Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. Aralık 2024;8(2):1-18.
Chicago Karabacak, Sezgin, Hür Bersam Sidal, ve Tuğba Yasemin Karagöz. “CAPACITY NEEDS FOR CARBON FIBER PRODUCTION IN TURKEY CONSIDERING FUTURE DEMAND FOR OFFSHORE WIND TURBINES”. Osmaniye Korkut Ata Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 8, sy. 2 (Aralık 2024): 1-18.
EndNote Karabacak S, Sidal HB, Karagöz TY (01 Aralık 2024) CAPACITY NEEDS FOR CARBON FIBER PRODUCTION IN TURKEY CONSIDERING FUTURE DEMAND FOR OFFSHORE WIND TURBINES. Osmaniye Korkut Ata Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 8 2 1–18.
IEEE S. Karabacak, H. B. Sidal, ve T. Y. Karagöz, “CAPACITY NEEDS FOR CARBON FIBER PRODUCTION IN TURKEY CONSIDERING FUTURE DEMAND FOR OFFSHORE WIND TURBINES”, Osmaniye Korkut Ata Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, c. 8, sy. 2, ss. 1–18, 2024.
ISNAD Karabacak, Sezgin vd. “CAPACITY NEEDS FOR CARBON FIBER PRODUCTION IN TURKEY CONSIDERING FUTURE DEMAND FOR OFFSHORE WIND TURBINES”. Osmaniye Korkut Ata Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 8/2 (Aralık 2024), 1-18.
JAMA Karabacak S, Sidal HB, Karagöz TY. CAPACITY NEEDS FOR CARBON FIBER PRODUCTION IN TURKEY CONSIDERING FUTURE DEMAND FOR OFFSHORE WIND TURBINES. Osmaniye Korkut Ata Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2024;8:1–18.
MLA Karabacak, Sezgin vd. “CAPACITY NEEDS FOR CARBON FIBER PRODUCTION IN TURKEY CONSIDERING FUTURE DEMAND FOR OFFSHORE WIND TURBINES”. Osmaniye Korkut Ata Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, c. 8, sy. 2, 2024, ss. 1-18.
Vancouver Karabacak S, Sidal HB, Karagöz TY. CAPACITY NEEDS FOR CARBON FIBER PRODUCTION IN TURKEY CONSIDERING FUTURE DEMAND FOR OFFSHORE WIND TURBINES. Osmaniye Korkut Ata Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2024;8(2):1-18.