Savunma ya da Saldırı: Osmanlı–Türk Devlet Yönetiminde Stratejik Süreklilik

Öz

Değişen güç ve zayıflık koşulları altında uzun dönemli bir devlet stratejisi olarak güç dengesi, risklerin, maliyetlerin ve rakip ittifakların yönetilmesinde nasıl bir işlev görür? Türk dış politikası literatürü büyük ölçüde kronolojik tarih anlatıları ile belirli dönemlere odaklanan teorik çalışmalar etrafında şekillenmiştir. Buna karşılık, devlet yönetimini yönlendiren uzun soluklu ilkelerin ve güvenlik odaklı stratejik düşünme biçimlerinin zaman içinde süreklilik gösterip göstermediğine dair çalışmalar görece sınırlı kalmıştır. Bu çalışma, anarşi, hayatta kalma ve kendi kendine yetme kavramlarını merkeze alan realist teorik varsayımlara dayalı uzun dönemli bir perspektifi merkeze almaktadır. Araştırma, Osmanlı–Türk dış politikasında güç dengesi stratejisinin, imparatorluğun gücünün zirveye ulaştığı dönemlerden çözülme ve yıkılma sürecine, oradan da Cumhuriyet’in görece zayıflık zamanlarına uzanan farklı tarihsel evreler boyunca belirleyici bir rol oynadığını göstermektedir. Stratejik başarının, risk ve maliyetlerin disiplinli biçimde yönetilmesine, rakiplerin tecrit edilmesine ve düşmanca koalisyonların oluşmasının engellenmesine bağlı olduğu; buna karşılık dengeleme stratejisinden sapmaların çoğu durumda başarısız sonuçlar ürettiği görülmektedir. Güç dengesini Osmanlı’dan Cumhuriyet’e uzanan süreçte süreklilik gösteren bir stratejik mekanizma olarak inceleyen bu çalışma, stratejik güvenlik kültürü tartışmalarına ve Osmanlı–Türk dış politikasında süreklilik meselesine katkı sunmayı hedeflemektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Devlet İdaresi
• Osmanlı-Türk Dış Politikası
• Güç Dengesi
• Stratejik Kültür

Destekleyen Kurum

Bu çalışma, kamu, ticari veya kâr amacı gütmeyen herhangi bir kurumdan özel bir finansal destek almamıştır.

Etik Beyan

Bu çalışmanın, özgün bir çalışma olduğunu; çalışmanın hazırlık, veri toplama, analiz ve bilgilerin sunumu olmak üzere tüm aşamalarından bilimsel etik ilke ve kurallarına uygun davrandığımı; bu çalışma kapsamında elde edilmeyen tüm veri ve bilgiler için kaynak gösterdiğimi ve bu kaynaklara kaynakçada yer verdiğimi; kullanılan verilerde herhangi bir değişiklik yapmadığımı, çalışmanın Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE)' in tüm şartlarını ve koşullarını kabul ederek etik görev ve sorumluluklara riayet ettiğimi beyan ederim. Herhangi bir zamanda, çalışmayla ilgili yaptığım bu beyana aykırı bir durumun saptanması durumunda, ortaya çıkacak tüm ahlaki ve hukuki sonuçlara razı olduğumu bildiririm.

Defence or Offence: Strategic Continuity in Ottoman-Turkish Statecraft

Öz

How can the balance of power function as a long-term instrument of statecraft for managing risk, strategic costs, and adversarial alignments under changing conditions of power and vulnerability? Existing scholarship on Turkish foreign policy has largely focused on chronologically structured historical narratives or period-specific theoretical analyses, leaving little room to examine long-term principles of statecraft and security-oriented strategic logics over extended temporal horizons. This article adopts a theoretically grounded longue durée perspective anchored in realist arguments concerning anarchy, survival, and self-help. It conceptualizes balance of power not as a static or exclusively defensive response, but as a flexible strategy of statecraft employed in both offensive and defensive contexts. The analysis shows that balance-of-power strategies structured Ottoman–Turkish foreign policy across different configurations of power, from periods of imperial strength to phases of decline and republican vulnerability. Strategic success was closely associated with disciplined risk management, cost sensitivity, and efforts to isolate adversaries and prevent hostile coalition formation, whereas departures from balancing logic tended to coincide with adverse outcomes. By tracing the balance of power as a persistent strategic mechanism across regime change, the article contributes to debates on strategic culture and long-term continuity in Ottoman–Turkish foreign policy. The findings indicate that balance-of-power strategies persisted across regime change, suggesting that strategic security culture can endure profound political transformation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Statecraft
• Ottoman–Turkish foreign policy
• Balance of Power
• Strategic Culture

Destekleyen Kurum

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or non-profit sectors.

Etik Beyan

I declare that this study is original; that I have acted by the principles and rules of scientific ethics at all stages of the study, including preparation, data collection, analysis, and presentation of information; that I have cited sources for all data and information not obtained within the scope of this study and included these sources in the bibliography; that I have not made any changes in the data used, and that I comply with ethical duties and responsibilities by accepting all the terms and conditions of the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE). I hereby declare that if a situation contrary to my statement regarding the study is detected, I agree to all moral and legal consequences that may arise.

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