Tedarik zinciri risklerinin yapısal eşitlik modeli ve bulanık analitik hiyerarşi süreci ile analizi

Öz

Tedarik zinciri risk yönetimi faaliyetleri, işletmelerin tedarik zinciri faaliyetleri kapsamında karşılaştıkları veya karşılaşabilecekleri riskleri ortadan kaldırmaya veya en aza indirmeye çalışır. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı tedarik zinciri risk faktörlerini tanımlamak ve önceliklendirmektir. Çalışmanın içeriğinde ilk olarak literatürden tedarik zinciri riskleri elde edilmiş, daha sonra elde edilen riskler gruplandırılmış ve birleştirilmiş ve çalışmada dikkate alınacak bir özet risk tablosu oluşturulmuştur. İkinci olarak, oluşturulan risk tablosundaki riskleri değerlendirmek için bir anket oluşturulmuş ve 391 kullanıcıdan değerlendirmeler alınmıştır. Toplanan sonuçlara göre temel riskler, Yapısal Eşitlik Modeli (YEM) yardımıyla istatistiksel olarak değerlendirilmiş ve model sonuçlarına göre Bulanık Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci (Bulanık AHP) yöntemi ile alt riskler önceliklendirilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçların yardımıyla, tedarik zincirindeki bireyler ve/veya işletmeler için öncelikli riskler konusunda eylem planı önerileri geliştirilmiştir. Eylem planına dahil edilecek ana riskler ve alt risklerden hangilerinin barındırdığını belirlemek için Pareto Analizi kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre, en önemli ana risk olarak arz ve talep riskleri olarak belirlenirken; satın alma maliyeti; materyal dizayn değişiklikleri; düzensiz talep tahminleri; tedarikçi kaynaklı riskler; transit zaman değişkenliği; müşteriden kaynaklı riskler; kısıtlı teslimat zamanları ve ürün yaşam döngüsü riskleri eylem planında en önemli alt riskler olarak belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tedarik zinciri riskleri
• Yapısal eşitlik modeli
• Bulanık analitik hiyerarşi prosesi
• Pareto analizi

Analysis of supply chain risks by structural equation model and fuzzy analytical hierarchy process

Abstract

Supply chain risk management activities attempt to eliminate or minimize the effects of risks that businesses face or may encounter within the scope of supply chain activities. The main aim of this study is to define, decide, and prioritize the supply chain risk factors. In the content of the study, first, supply chain risks from the literature were gathered and then the obtained risks were grouped and combined and a summary risk table to be considered in the study was created. Second, a questionnaire was created to evaluate the risks in the created risk table, and evaluations were received from 391 users. According to the collected results, the main risks were evaluated statistically with the help of the Structural Equation Model (SEM), and then sub-risks were prioritized by the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP) method according to the model results. With the help of obtained results, action plan suggestions were developed for individuals and/or businesses in the supply chain over prioritized risks. Pareto Analysis was used to determine which of the sub-risks hosted by the main risks and the sub-risks will be included in the action plan. According to the results of the study, supply and demand risks are obtained as the most important main risks; procurement cost; frequency of material design changes, inaccurate demand forecasts, risks arising from supplier, risks arising from the costumer, transit time variability risks are identified as the most important sub-risks in the action plan.

Keywords

• Supply chain risks
• Structural equation model
• Fuzzy
• Analytical hierarchy process
• Pareto analysis

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