Türkiye’nin yenilenebilir enerji projeleri ile geliştirebileceği karbon sertifikası potansiyeli

Öz

Türkiye’nin yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları (YEK) ile elektrik üretim miktarı artırılarak, enerji sektörü kaynaklı emisyonları önemli miktarda azaltılabilir. Gönüllü karbon piyasaları, YEK kullanılarak elektrik üretiminin özendirilmesi ve bu kaynaklardan daha fazla yararlanılmasını sağlarlar. Bu çalışmada; Türkiye elektrik şebekesine bağlanacak YEK ile elektrik üretimi yapan tesislerden sağlanacak emisyon azaltım ve karbon kredisi miktarları ile karbon kredi ticareti ile elde edilecek olan gelir hesaplanmıştır. Emisyon azaltım miktarı hesaplaması; birleşik marj CO2 emisyon faktörleri kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. 2021-2024 yılları arasında YEK kullanılarak gerçekleştirilecek elektrik enerji üretimi ile sağlanabilecek CO2 emisyon azaltım miktarı 454,94 MtCO2’dir. 2016-2024 yılları arasında elde edilebilecek gönüllü karbon kredisi geliri 1.116 milyar dolar’dır. Türkiye’nin YEK ile elektrik üretimi yapan tesisleri ile sağlanan karbon azaltımın çok düşük bir bölümü gönüllü karbon sertifikası ihraç eden kuruluşlar aracılığıyla ticarete konu olmuştur. Türkiye’nin zengin YEK potansiyeli yeterince değerlendirilmemiştir. Türkiye’nin yenilenebilir enerji projeleri ile geliştirilebileceği karbon kredisi hacmi yüksektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yenilenebilir enerji
• Şebeke emisyon faktörü
• Birleşik marj emisyon faktörü
• Karbon sertifikası
• Gönüllü karbon piyasası

Increasing voluntary carbon credits potential via renewable energy projects in Turkey

Öz

Turkey's renewable energy sources (RES) can be utilized to increase the amount of electricity generation and significantly reduce emissions from the energy sector. Voluntary carbon markets encourage electricity generation using RES and make greater use of these sources. In this study, the amount of emission reduction and carbon credits to be obtained from the renewable power plants to be connected to the Turkish electricity grid and the revenue to be obtained from carbon credit trading have been calculated. Emission reduction amount has been calculated by using combined margin CO2 emission factors. The amount of CO2 emission reduction that can be achieved through the renewable electricity generation between 2021-2024 is estimated as 454.94 MtCO2. Voluntary carbon credit revenue that can be obtained for the period between 2016 and 2024 is $1.116 billion. A very small part of the carbon reduction potential generated by renewable projects has been the subject of trade through voluntary carbon certificate issuing organizations. Turkey's rich RES potential has not been adequately utilized. The volume of carbon offsets that Turkey can generate by renewable projects is considerably high.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Renewable energy
• Grid emission factor
• Combined margin emission factor
• Carbon certification
• Voluntary carbonmarket

Kaynakça

1. [1] United Nations Environment Programme. “Emissions Gap Report”. Nairobi, Kenya, DEW/2310/NA, 2020.
2. [2] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “Global Warming of 1.5 °C. An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5 °C Above Pre-Industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways, İn the Context of Strengthening The Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable Development and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty”. https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/(08.04.2021).
3. [3] UN. “Paris Agreement”. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agre ement.pdf (08.04.2021).
4. [4] The World Bank. “State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2021”. Washington, USA, 978-1-4648-1728-1, 2021.
5. [5] International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). “World Energy Transitions Outlook: 1.5 °C Pathway”. Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, 978-92-9260-334-2, 2021.
6. [6] Yıldız M, Bingöl F. “Hybrid energy model for small and micro scale energy investments”. Pamukkale University Journal of Engineering Sciences, 25(1), 1-6, 2019.
7. [7] International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. “State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2020”. Washington, DC 20433, USA, 978-1-4648-1586-7, 2020.
8. [8] German Environment Agency. “Future Role for Voluntary Carbon Markets in the Paris Era”. Final Report, FB000420/ENG, 2020.

9. [9] Robobank. “Can Voluntary Carbon Markets Change the Game For Climate Change?”. https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2021/m arch/can-voluntary-carbon-markets-change-the-gamefor-climatechange/#:~:text=Several%20important%20developmen ts%20have%20been,potential%20for%20future%20imp ortant%20changes.&text=Carbon%20offsetting%20on% 20a%20voluntary,remove%20carbon%20from%20the% 20atmosphere (27.04.2021).
10. [10] Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs (Belfer Center). “The Future of Carbon Offset Markets-Current Trends and Emerging Challenges”.https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/ files/files/publication/The%20Future%20of%20Carbon %20Offset%20Markets.pdf (27.04.2021).
11. [11] McKinsey & Company. “A blueprint for scaling voluntary carbon markets to meet the climate challenge”. https://www.mckinsey.com/businessfunctions/sustainability/our-insights/a-blueprint-forscaling-voluntary-carbon-markets-to-meet-the-climatechallenge (27.04.2021).
12. [12] Carbon Market Watch. “Carbon markets 101 The ultimate Guide to Global Offsetting Mechanisms”. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp/wpcontent/uploads/2019/06/CMW-CARBON-MARKETS101-THE-ULTIMATE-GUIDE-TO-MARKET-BASEDCLIMATE-MECHANISMS-WEB-FINAL-SINGLE.pdf (27.04. 2021).
13. [13] Institute of International Finance. “Taskforce on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets”. https://www.iif.com/Portals/1/Files/TSVCM_Report.pdf (27.04.2021).
14. [14] Binboğa G. “International carbon trade and Turkey”. Journal of Yasar University, 9(34), 5732-5759, 2014.
15. [15] Çıtak OS. “Karbon ayak izi’nin ne kadarı finansal piyasalarda: Karbon piyasalarının performansı ve karbon merkez bankasının kurulması”. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, 105, 31-46, 2016.
16. [16] Çelikkol H, Özkan N. “Karbon piyasaları ve Türkiye perspektifi”. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 31, 203-221, 2011.
17. [17] Tunahan H. “Küresel iklim değişikliğini azaltmanın bir yolu olarak karbon finansmanı”. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, 46, 199-215, 2010.
18. [18] Çetintaş H, Türköz K. “The role of carbon markets in combating with climate change”. Balıkesir University the Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 20(37), 147-167, 2017.
19. [19] Can F. “The evaluation of stakeholder participation of projects developed in Turkey and certified in voluntary carbon markets”. Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, 3(1), 1-17, 2018.
20. [20] Ari İ. “Voluntary emission trading potential of Turkey”. Energy Policy, 62, 910-919, 2013.
21. [21] Bayazıt Y. “The effect of hydroelectric power plants on the carbon emission: An example of Gokcekaya dam, Turkey”. Renewable Energy, 170, 181-187, 2021.
22. [22] Akbaş HE, Canikli S. “Determinants of voluntary greenhouse gas emission disclosure: An empirical investigation on Turkish firms”. Sustainability, 11(1), 107, 2019.
23. [23] Dietz S, Bowen A, Doda B, Gambhir A, Warren R. “The economics of 1.5 °C climate change”. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 43, 455-80, 2018.
24. [24] Moro A, Lonza L. “Electricity carbon intensity in European member states: Impacts on GHG emissions of electric vehicles”. Transportation Research Part D, 64, 5-14, 2018.
25. [25] Agora Energiewende and Sandbag. “The European Power Sector in 2019: Up-to-date analysis on the electricity transition”. Berlin, Germany, 172/02-A-2020/EN, 2020.
26. [26] Asian Development Bank. “Guidelines for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Asian Development Bank Projects-Additional Guidance for Clean Energy Projects”. Metro Manila, Philippines, TIM178659-2, 2017.
27. [27] Synapse Energy Economics. “Using Electric System Operating Margins and Build Margins in Quantification of Carbon Emission Reductions Attributable to Grid Connected CDM Projects”. Cambridge, USA, 617-661- 3248, 2005.
28. [28] World Resources Institute. “Guidelines for quantifying GHG reductions from grid-connected electricity projects”. Washington, DC 20002, USA, 978-1-56973-655-5, 2007.
29. [29] OECD Environment Directorate and International Energy Agency. “Practical Baseline Recommendations for Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Projects in the Electric Power Sector”. Paris, France, Information Paper, COM/ENV/EPOC/IEA/SLT (2002) 1, 2002.
30. [30] European Invetsment Bank. “Methodologies for the Assessment of Project GHG Emissions and Emission Variations Version 11.1.”. https://www.eib.org/attachments/strategies/eib_projec t_carbon_footprint_methodologies_en.pdf (27.04.2021).
31. [31] CDM Executive Board. “Tool to Calculate the Emission Factor for an Electricity System Version 07.0”. https://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/PAmethodologies /tools/am-tool-07-v1.1.pdf/history_view (15.04.2021).
32. [32] Republic of Turkey Ministry of Energy and National Resources. “Türkiye Ulusal Elektrik Şebekesi Emisyon Faktörü Bilgi Formu”. https://enerji.gov.tr/evced-cevreve-iklim-turkiye-ulusal-elektrik-sebekesi-emisyonfaktoru (30.03.2021).
33. [33] Republic of Turkey Energy Market Regulatory Authority. “Elektrik Piyasası Yıllık Sektör Raporu Listesi”. https://www.epdk.gov.tr/Detay/Icerik/3-0- 24/elektrikyillik-sektor-raporu (30.03.2021).
34. [34] Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation. “Türkiye Elektrik Enerjisi 5 Yıllık Üretim Kapasite Projeksiyonu (2020-2024)”. https://www.teias.gov.tr/tr-TR/ilgiliraporlar (30.03. 2021).
35. [35] GSF Registry. “Airres-4 Wind Power Plant Project Design Document.” https://registry.goldstandard.org/projects?q=&page=1& is_certified_project=true&countries=TR&project_types=1 2%2C5%2C13%2C1 (20.04.2021).
36. [36] GSF Registry. “Bolu Landfill Gas to Energy Project Project Design Document Form”. https://registry.goldstandard.org/projects?q=&page=1& is_certified_project=true&countries=TR&project_types=1 2%2C5%2C13%2C1 (20.04.2021).
37. [37] GSF Registry. “CANTA WPP PROJECT DESİGN DOCUMENT FOrm for CDM Project Activities”. https://registry.goldstandard.org/projects?q=&page=1& is_certified_project=true&countries=TR&project_types=1 2%2C5%2C13%2C1 (20.04.2021).
38. [38] VERRA. “Tepekisla Dam and Hydropower Plant Project Validation Report”. https://registry.verra.org/app/search/VCS (20.04.2021).
39. [39] VERRA. “Çerçikaya wind Power Project Project Description”. https://registry.verra.org/app/search/VCS (20.04.2021).
40. [40] VERRA. “ME-SE Solar Power Project Project Description”. https://registry.verra.org/app/search/VCS (20.04. 2021).
41. [41] VERRA. “Mavi Bayrak Biomass Power Plant Project Joint Project Description & Monitoring Report”. https://registry.verra.org/app/search/VCS (20.04. 2021).
42. [42] VERRA. “Smart Anatolia Bundled Solar Project Project Description”. https://registry.verra.org/app/search/VCS (20.04.2021).
43. [43] VERRA. “Bayburt Landfill Gas to Energy Project Project Description”. https://registry.verra.org/app/search/VCS (20.04.2021).
44. [44] GSF Registry. “Projects”. https://registry.goldstandard.org/projects (20.04.2021).
45. [45] VERRA. “Projects”. https://registry.verra.org/app/search/VCS/All%20Proje cts (20.04.2021).
46. [46] Republic of Turkey Energy Market Regulatory Authority. “Elektrik Piyasası Lisans Listesi”. http://lisans.epdk.gov.tr/epvysweb/faces/pages/lisans/elektrikUretim/elektrikUretim OzetSorgula.xhtl (09.05.2021).
47. [47] Forest Trends Association. “Forest Trends' Ecosystem Marketplace, Financing Emission Reductions for the Future: State of Voluntary Carbon Markets 2019”. https://www.forest-trends.org/wpcontent/uploads/2019/12/SOVCM2019.pdf (09.05.2021).
48. [48] Forest Trends Association. “Forest Trends’ Ecosystem Marketplace, Voluntary Carbon and the Post-Pandemic Recovery. State of Voluntary Carbon Markets Report”. https://www.forest-trends.org/publications/state-ofvoluntary-carbon-markets-2020-voluntary-carbon-andthe-post-pandemic-recovery/ (09.05.2021).
49. [49] Turkish Statistical Institute. “Sera Gazı Emisyon İstatistikleri 1990-2019”. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Sera-GaziEmisyon-Istatistikleri-1990-2019-37196 (08.04.2021).
50. [50] Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation. “Mart 2021 Kurulu Güç Raporu”. https://www.teias.gov.tr/trTR/kurulu-guc-raporlari (10.04.2021).
51. [51] Ozcan M. “The role of renewables in increasing Turkey's self-sufficiency in electrical energy”. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 82(3), 2629-2639, 2018.
52. [52] Republic of Turkey Ministry of Energy and National Resources. “National Renewable Energy Action Plan for Turkey”. https://www.ebrd.com/documents/commsand-bis/turkey-national-renewable-energy-actionplan.pdf (10.04.2021).
53. [53] Devlet Planlama Teşkilatı. “Elektrik Enerjisi Piyasası ve Arz Güvenliği Strateji Belgesi”. https://ww4.ticaret.edu.tr/enerji/wpcontent/uploads/sites/79/2015/11/Elektrik-EnerjisiPiyasas%C4%B1-Ve-Arz-G%C3%BCvenli%C4%9FiStrateji-Belgesi.pdf (10.04.2021).
54. [54] CAN Europe, SEE Change Net, TEPAV. “Türkiye Ekonomisinin Karbondan Arındırılması: Uzun Vadeli Stratejiler ve Acil Çözüm Bekleyen Darboğazlar Sektörler Arası Diyaloğun Önceliklendirdiği Enerji Gerçekleri, Bakış Açısı Farklılaşmaları ve Enerji Görünümüne Dair Düşünceler”. Ankara, Turkey, TR2015/DG/01/A5- 02/147A, 2020.
55. [55] Turkish Industry and Business Association. “Ekonomik Göstergeler Merceğinden Yeni İklim Rejimi”. İstanbul, Turkey, 978-605-165-047-0, 2020.
56. [56] Trove Research. “Future Demand, Supply and Prices for Voluntary Carbon Credits-Keeping the Balance”. https://trove-research.com/wpcontent/uploads/2021/06/Trove-Research-CarbonCredit-Demand-Supply-and-Prices-1-June-2021.pdf (27.06.2021).