Seul Şehri meteorolojik verileri kullanılarak makine öğrenmesi regresyon yöntemleri ile hava sıcaklığının değerlendirilmesi

Öz

Havanın insan yaşamı ve faaliyetleri üzerinde önemli bir etkisi vardır. Hava sıcaklığındaki ani değişimler günlük yaşamı ve çeşitli endüstrileri olumsuz etkilendiğinden hava tahmini doğruluğunun önemini günden güne artırmaktadır. Mevcut hava tahmin yöntemleri iki ana gruba ayrılabilir: sayısal tabanlı ve makine öğrenim tabanlı yaklaşımlar. Sayısal tabanlı hava tahmin yöntemleri, hesaplama maliyetini önemli ölçüde artıran karmaşık matematiksel formüller kullanır. Buna karşın, makine öğrenim tabanlı yöntemler ise düşük işlem maliyetleri nedeniyle son yıllarda daha çok tercih edilir. Bu çalışmada, geleneksel makine öğrenmesi yöntemlerinin yanı sıra son yıllarda geliştirilen yükseltme tabanlı makine öğrenmesi algoritmaları ile birlikte 12 farklı regresyon yöntemi kullanılarak Güney Kore Seul için bir sonraki günün maksimum ve minimum hava sıcaklığı tahmin edilmektedir. Ayrıca, hiperparametrelerin ayarlanması, makine öğrenmesi algoritmalarının işlem süresini ve performansını etkilediğinden, 12 yöntemin tümü zaman ve hiperparametreler açısından kapsamlı bir şekilde çalışılmııştır. Yöntemlerin performanslarının karşılaştırılmasında literatürde sıklıkla tercih edilen kare korelasyon katsayısı (𝑅 2 ) kullanılmaktadır. Gözlemlenen sonuçlara göre, yükseltme tabanlı XGBoost ve LightGBM yöntemleri, hem istatistiksel test analizi hem de en yüksek 𝑅 2 puanı ile tüm yıllar için maksimum ve minimum hava sıcaklığını tahmin etmede en başarılı makine öğrenmesi algoritmalarıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Makine öğrenmesi
• Günlük hava durumu tahmini
• Regresyon yöntemi
• Seul

Evaluation of air temperature with machine learning regression methods using Seoul City meteorological data

Abstract

Weather has a significant impact on human life and activities. As abrupt changes in air temperature negatively affect daily life and various industries, the importance of weather forecast accuracy is increasing day by day. Current weather forecasting methods can be divided into two main groups: numerical-based and machine learning-based approaches. Numerical-based weather forecasting methods use complex mathematical formulas that significantly increase the computational cost. On the other hand, machine learning-based methods have been preferred more in recent years due to their lower computational costs. In this study, the next day's maximum and minimum air temperature are estimated for Seoul, South Korea by using 12 different regression methods together with the boosting-based machine learning algorithms developed in recent years, as well as traditional machine learning methods. Furthermore, since tuning of hyperparameters affects the process time and performance of machine learning algorithms, all 12 methods have been extensively studied in terms of time and hyperparameters. The square correlation coefficient (𝑅 2 ), which is frequently adopted in the literature, is used to compare the performances of the methods. According to the observed results, the boosting-based XGBoost and LightGBM methods are the most successful machine learning algorithms in predicting the maximum and minimum air temperature for all years with both statistical test analysis and the highest 𝑅 2 score

Keywords

• Machine learning
• Daily weather forecasting
• Regression method
• Seoul

Kaynakça

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