Derin öğrenme ile talep tahmini: Bir üçüncü parti lojistik firması için COVID-19 döneminde vaka analizi

Öz

COVID-19 pandemi döneminde yaşanan kısıtlamalar ve kapanmalar küresel tedarik zincirlerini büyük ölçüde etkilemiştir. Lojistik sektörü, bu süreçten en çok etkilenen sektörler arasında yer almaktadır. Bu nedenle, lojistik talebinin doğru ve hızlı tahmin edilmesi, etkin kaynak planlaması için önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmada, bir üçüncü parti lojistik firmasında COVID-19 pandemi dönemindeki talebin doğru tahmin edilmesi hedeflenmiştir. Lojistik firmasının Haziran 2020 ve Aralık 2020 tarihleri arasındaki sevkiyat verisi incelenmiştir ve tahmin problemi tek değişkenli zaman serisi olarak ele alınmıştır. Çalışma kapsamında, derin öğrenme tabanlı talep tahmini modeli önerilmiştir. Önerilen modelde evrişimli sinir ağı (CNN) ile uzun kısa dönem hafıza (LSTM) ağı bütünleştirilmiştir. CNN özniteliklerin çıkarılmasını, LSTM ağı ise uzun dönemli bağımlılıkların yakalanmasını sağlamaktadır ve önerilen model hibrit CNN-LSTM olarak adlandırılmıştır. Hibrit CNNLSTM’in tahmin performansı klasik tahmin yaklaşımlarının yanı sıra makine öğrenmesi ve derin öğrenme yaklaşımları ile karşılaştırılarak değerlendirilmiştir. Tüm tahmin yöntemlerinin parametre değerleri deneysel çalışmalar ile belirlenmiştir. Deneysel sonuçlara göre önerilen hibrit CNN-LSTM yöntemi diğer yöntemlerden daha yüksek tahmin performansı göstermiştir. Önerilen yaklaşım, lojistik talebinin doğru tahmin edilmesini sağlayarak işgücü ve kaynak planlaması faaliyetlerine girdi oluşturmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Talep tahmini
• Üçüncü parti lojistik
• Derin öğrenme
• Evrişimli sinir ağları
• Uzun kısa dönem hafıza

Demand forecasting with deep learning: Case study in a third-party logistics company for the COVID-19 period

Abstract

The restrictions and closures experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic period have affected the global supply chains greatly. The logistics sector is among the most affected sectors from this process. For this reason, accurate and fast estimation of logistics demand is important for effective resource planning. In this study, the aim is to predict the demand accurately in a third-party logistics company during the COVID-19 pandemic period. The shipment data of a logistics company between June 2020 and December 2020 were examined, and the prediction problem was considered as univariate time series. In the scope of the study, a deep learning-based demand forecasting model is proposed. In the proposed prediction model, convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) network are integrated. CNN provides feature extraction, LSTM captures long-term dependencies, and the proposed model is called hybrid CNN-LSTM. The prediction performance of the hybrid CNN-LSTM was evaluated by comparing it with the classical prediction approaches as well as machine learning and deep learning approaches. The parameter values of all forecasting methods were determined by experimental studies. According to the experimental results, the proposed hybrid CNN-LSTM method showed higher performance than the other methods. The proposed approach generatesinput to workforce and resource planning activities by providing accurate estimation of logistics demand.

Keywords

• Demand forecasting
• Third-party logistics
• Deep learning
• Convolutional neural networks
• Long short-term memory

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