Ekstrem yağışların zamansal eğilim analizi: Konya Kapalı Havzası örneği

Öz

Aşırı iklim olaylarının sıklığı ve yoğunluğundaki değişiklikler önemli sosyal, ekonomik ve çevresel sorunlara neden olmaktadır. Özellikle, iklim değişikliğinin ekstrem yağışlar üzerindeki etkilerini araştırmak çok önemlidir. Son yıllarda birçok araştırmacı tarafından küresel, bölgesel ve yerel ölçekte ekstrem yağışların mekansal ve zamansal değişimi araştırılmıştır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de Konya Kapalı Havzası’nda bulunan 4 meteoroloji istasyonunun (Konya, Karaman, Aksaray, Niğde)ekstrem yağışlarının zamansal değişimi araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla, Mann-Kendall (MK), Spearman’s Rho ve Innovative Şen Trend testleri kullanılmıştır. Trend yöntemlerinin sonuçlarına göre Aksaray, Karaman ve Niğde meteoroloji istasyonlarında ekstrem yağış verileri istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olmayan azalma, Konya meteoroloji istasyonunda ise anlamlı olmayan artış eğilimleri elde edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yağış,Trend analizi,Konya kapalı havzası

Temporal trend analysis of extreme precipitation: a case study of Konya Closed Basin

Öz

The changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme climatic events bring about many important problems in terms of social, economic and environmental. Especially, it is very important to inquire the influences of climate change on extreme precipitation. Spatial and temporal trends of extreme precipitation have been investigated by many researchers at global, regional and local scales in recent years. This study is about the temporal variability of extreme precipitation of 4 meteorology station (Konya, Karaman, Aksaray, Nigde) on Konya Closed Basin in Turkey. Trend analysis of extreme precipitations was conducted by means of the Spearman’s Rho (SR), Mann-Kendall (MK) and Innovative Şen Trend test. According to the results of trend methods, non-significant decreasing trends are observed in extreme precipitation data of Aksaray, Karaman and Nigde meteorology stations while non-significant increasing trend is shown only in Konya meteorology station.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Precipitation,Trend analysis,Konya closed basin

Kaynakça

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