Batı Akdeniz Havzalarının L-Momentlere Dayalı Bölgesel Taşkın Frekans Analizi

Yıl 2009, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 2, 153 - 165, 01.02.2009

Betül Saf

Öz

Bu çalışmada Batı Akdeniz havzasının yıllık maksimum taşkın serilerinin bölgesel taşkın frekans analizi L-moment parametre tahminlerine dayalı olarak taşkın indeks yöntemiyle yapılmıştır. Bölge; Antalya, Aşağı-Batı Akdeniz ve Yukarı-Batı Akdeniz olmak üzere üç homojen alt bölgeye bölünmüştür. L-momentler homojenlik testine bağlı olarak homojen bölgelerin belirlenmesinden sonra akım gözlem istasyonlarına ait çeşitli yineleme aralıklarına sahip tasarım taşkın değerleri hesaplanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bölgeselleştirme, Gumbel dağılımı, Taşkın indeks yöntemi, Bölgesel homojenlik.

Regional Flood Frequency Analysis Based on L-Moments of West Mediterranean Basins

Öz

In this study, regional flood frequency analysis is carried out for annual maximum flood series of stream gauging stations in the West Mediterranean River basins in Turkey based on an index flood method with L-moments parameter estimation. The region is divided into three homogeneous subregions; Antalya, Lower West Mediterranean and Upper West Mediterranean subregion using L-moment homogeneity test. After determining the homogeneous subregions, design floods with various recurrence intervals are calculated for stream gauging stations in each homogeneous subregions.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Regionalization, Gumbel distribution, Flood-index method, Regional homogeneity.

Kaynakça

• Burn, D. H. 1990. Evaluation of regional flood frequen- cy analysis with a region of influence approach, Water Resour. Res. 26 (10), 2257-2265.
• Burn, D. H. and Goel, N. K. 2000. The formation of groups for regional flood frequency analysis. Hy- drological Science Journal. 45 (1), 97-112.
• Burn, D. H., Zrinji, Z. and Kowalchuck, M. 1997. Re- gionalization of catchments for regional flood frequency analysis. ASCE, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. 2 (2), 76-82.
• Castellarin, A., Burn, D. H. and Brath, A. 2001. Assess- ing the effectiveness of hydrologic similarity measures for flood frequency analysis. Journal of Hydrology. (241), 270-285.
• Cavadias, G. S. 1990. “The canonical correlation ap- proach to regional flood estimation in regional- ization in hydrology”. IAHS Publication No.191, 171-178, edited by M. A. Beran, M. Brilly, A. Beck- er ve O. Bonacci, International Association of Hy- drologicalSciences, Wallingford, Oxon.
• Coulson, C. H. 1991. “Manual of Operational Hydro- logy in B.C’., second edition, B.C. Ministry of En- vironment, Lands and parks, Water Management Division, Hydrology Section, BC, Canada.
• Cunnane, C. 1988. Methods and Merits of Regional Flood Frequency Analysis. Journal of Hydrology. (100), 269-290.
• Dalrymple, T. 1960. Flood Frequency Methods. U.S. Geological Survey, Water Supply Paper, 1543A.
• Demirelli, M. 2003. Doğu Akdeniz Bölgesindeki Taşkın- ların Bölgesel Frekans Analizi. DEÜ İnşaat Müh. Bölümü Hidroloji ve Su Yapıları Diploma Projesi, n. 253 (Yön.: T. BARAN), İzmir.
• Dinçer, T. 1959. Feyezan Tekerrür Hesapları Etüd ve Planlama Rehberi. Ankara, DSİ Genel Müdürlü- ğü.
• Fıstıkoğlu, O., ve Tarıyan, Ş. 1992. Ege Bölgesindeki Taşkınların Bölgesel Frekans Analizi. DEÜ İnşaat Müh. Böl., Hidroloji ve Su Yapıları Bitirme Projesi, N. 95, (Yön.: E. Benzeden), İzmir.
• Fill, H. D. and Stedinger J. R. 1995. L-moment and Pro- bability Plot Correlation Coefficient Goodness-of- fit Tests for the Gumbel Distribution and Impact of Autocorrelation. Water Resources Research. (31), 225-229.
• Gedikli, D. 1994. Analysis of Floods in the Scope of GAP. DEU Graduate School of Natural and App- lied Sciences, M.Sc. Thesis in Civil Engineering (Adv: E. Benzeden), İzmir.
• Greenwood, J. A., Landwehr, J. M., Matalas, N. C., and Wallis, J. R. 1979. Probability Weighted Moments: Definition and Relation to Parameters of Several Distributions Expressible in Inverse Form. Water Resour. Res. 15 (5), 1049-1054.
• Greis, N. P. and Wood, E. F. 1981. Regional Flood Fre- quency Estimation and Network Design. Water Resources Research. 17 (4), 1167-1177.
• Haktanır, T., Özcan, Z., Çapar, Ö.F. 1990. Türkiye akar- sularının taşkın pikleri frekans analizi. Su Mühen- disliği Problemleri Semineri IV, Seminer Tebliğleri, DSİ Genel Müdürlüğü Teknik Araştırma ve Kalite Kontrol Daire Başkanlığı, Fethiye. 11 (1) 11-34.
• Hosking, J. R. M. 1990. L-moments: Analysis and esti- mation of distributions using linear combinations of order statistics. Journal of Royal Statistics. Soc., Ser. B 52. pp.105–124.
• Hosking, J. R. M., ve Wallis, J. R. 1993. Some statistics useful in regional frequency analysis. Water Re- sour. Res. 29 (2), 271-281.
• Hosking, J. R. M. and Wallis, J. R. 1997. Regional frequen- cy analysis: An Approach Based on L-Moments. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
• Hosking, J. R. M., Wallis, J. R. and Wood, E. F. 1985a. Estimation of the generalized extreme-value dis- tribution by the method of probability-weigthed moments. Technometrics. (27), 251-261.
• Hosking, J. R. M., Wallis, J. R. and Wood, E. F. 1985b. An appraisal of the regional flood frequency proce- dure in the UK flood studies report. hydrological sciences journal. (30), 85-109.
• Hosking, J. R. M., Wallis, J. R. and Wood, E. F. 1988. The Effect of Intersite Dependence on Regional Flood Frequency Analysis. Water Resources Research. (24), 588-600.
• Kachroo, R. K. and Mkhandi, S. H. 2000. Flood frequency analysis of southern Africa: I. Delineation of Homo- geneous Regions. Hydrological Sciences. 45 (3), 437- 447.
• Kjeldsen, T. R., Smithers, J. C. and Schulze, R. E. 2001. Food frequency analysis at ungauged sites in the kwazulu- natal province, South Africa. Water SA. (27), 315-423.
• Kumar, R., Chatterjee, C., Kumar, S., Lohani, A. K. and Singh, R. D. 2003. Development of Regional Flood Frequency Relationships Using L-Moments for Middle Ganga Plains Subzone 1(f) of India. Water Resour. Mgmt. 17 (4), 243–257.
• Landwehr, J. M., Matalas, N. C. and Wallis, J. R. 1979. Probability weighted moments compared with some traditional techniques in estimating gum- bel parameters and quantiles. Water Resources Research. 15 (5), 1055-1064.
• Lettenmaier, D. P. and Potter, K. W. 1985. Testing flood frequency estimation methods using a regional flood generation model. Water Resour. Res., 21 (12), 1903-1914.
• Lettenmaier, D. P., Wallis, J. R. and Wood, E. F. 1987. Ef- fect of regional heterogeneity on flood frequency estimation. Water Resour. Res., 23 (2), 313–323.
• Lim, Y. H. and Lye, L. M. 2003. Regional flood estimation for ungauged basins in sarawak, Malaysia. Hydro- logical Sciences. 48 (1), 79-94.
• Madsen, H., Pearson, C. P. and Rosbjerg, D. 1997. Com- parison of annual maximum series and partial duration methods for modelling extreme hydro- logic events, 2. Regional Modelling. Water Reso- urces Research. 33 (4), 759–769.
• Maidment, D. R. 1993. Handbook of Hydrology. McGraw Hill, New York.
• Mkhandi, S. ve Kachroo, R. K. 1997. Regional flood frequency analysis for southern africa. southern Africa Friend: IHP IV Technical documents in Hy- drology. (15), 130-150.
• Natural Environmental Research Council (N.E.R.C) 1975. Flood Studies Report, Vol. 1. Hydrological Studies, London.
• Önöz, B. 1991. Bölgesel Taşkın Frekans Analizi. Şanlı- urfa, “Su Mühendisliğinde Bilgisayar Uygulama- ları Semineri”, 3.1-3.23.
• Özen, S. 2001. Gediz havzasında L-momentler yöntemi ile taşkın analizi. DEÜ İnşaat Müh. Bölümü Hidro- loji ve Su Yapıları Bitirme Projesi, n.218 (Yön.: N. Harmancıoğlu), İzmir.
• Pandey, G. R. and Nguyen, V. T. 1999. A Comparative study of regression based methods in regional flood frequency analysis. Journal of Hydrology. (225), 92-101.
• Parida, B. P., Kachroo, R. K. and Shrestha, D. B. 1998. Re- gional flood frequency analysis of mahi-sabarmati basin (Subzone 3-a) Using Index Flood Procedure with L-moments. Water Resources Management. (12), 1-12.
• Pearson, C. P. 1991. New zealand regional flood fre- quency analysis using L-Moments. The New Zea- land Hydrological Society. J. Hydrol. 30 (2), 53- 64.
• Pearson, C. P. 1995. Regional frequency analysis of low flows in new zealand rivers. The New Zealand Hydrological Society, J. Hydrol. 33 (2), 94-122.
• Pilon, P. J. and Adamowski, K. 1992. The value of region- al information to flood frequency analysis using the method of L-moments, Can. J. Civil Engrg. (19), 137–147.
• Pitlick, J. 1994. Relation between peak flows, precipi- tation, and physiography for five mountains re- gions in the western USA. Journal of Hydrology. (158), 219-240.
• Portela, M. M. and Dias, A. T. 2005. Application of the ındex-flood method to the regionalization of flo- od peak discharges on the portugal mainland. River Basin Management, 83.
• Rakesh, K., Chatterjee, C., Kumar, S., Lohani, A. K. and Singh, R. D. 2003. Development of Regional Flo- od Frequency Relationships Using L-moments for Middle Ganga Plains Subzone 1(f) of India. Water Resources Management. (17), 243-257.
• Rossi, F. and Villani, P. 1994. Regional Flood Estimation Methods. in G. Rossi, N. B. Harmancioglu, ve V. Yevjevich (eds), Coping with Floods, Kluwer Aca- demic Publishers, Chap. 8, Nato ASI Series, Series E257, pp.135–169.
• Saf, B. 1995. Regional flood frequency analysis of west medditerranean river basins. DEU graduate scho- ol of natural and applied sciences, M.Sc. Thesis in Civil Engineering (Adv: E. Benzeden), İzmir.
• Saf, B., Dikbaş, F. and Yasar, M. 2007. Determination of regional flood frequency distributions of floods in west mediterrenean river basins. Fresenius En- vironmental Bulletin. 16 (10), 1300-1308.
• Stedinger, J. R., Vogel, R. M. and Georgiou, E. F. 1993. Frequency analysis of Extreme Events. in D. R. Maidment (Ed), Handbook of Hydrology, Chap. 18, McGraw-Hill.
• Şorman, A. Ü. 2004. Bölgesel frekans analizindeki son gelişmeler ve batı karadenizde bir uygulama. İMO Teknik Dergi. (212), 3155-3169.
• Tarıyan, Ş. 1996. Regional flood frequency analysis of the east medditerranean river basins. DEU Gra- duate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, M.Sc. Thesis in Civil Engineering (Adv: T. Baran), İzmir.
• Topaloğlu, F. 2005. Regional flood frequency analysis of the basins of the east mediterranean region. Turkish Journal of Agriculture and Forestry, Pub- lished by Scientific and Technical Research Coun- cil of Turkey (TUBITAK), 29 (4), 287-295.
• Topaloğlu, F., İrvem, A., Yücel, A. ve Tülücü, K. 2003. Taşkın büyüklüklerinin bölgesel taşkın frekans analizi ile belirlenmesi: Seyhan Havzası Örneği. MKU Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi 8 (1-2), 73-82.
• USWRC U.S. Water Resources Council, 1981. Guideli- ness for determining flood flow frequency. bul- letin 17B., U.S: Depertment of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Washington, DC, USA.
• Vogel, R. M., Thomas, W. O. and McMahon, T. A. 1993. Flood-flow frequency model selection in south- western united states. J. Water Resour. Planning and Management. 119 (3), 353-366.
• Wiltshire, S. E. 1986. Regional flood frequency analysis i: homogeneity statistics. Hydrological Sciences Journal. (31), 321-333.
• Yue, S. and Wang, C. Y. 2004a. Regional probability dis- tributions of canadian flood flows by L-moments. J. Hydrol. 43 (1), 59–73.
• Yue, S. and Wang, C. Y. 2004b. Possible regional prob- ability distribution type of canadian annual stream- flow by l-moments. Water Resources Manage- ment. (18), 425-438.
• Zrinji, Z. and Burn, D. H. 1994. Flood frequency analy- sis for ungauged sites using a region of influence approach. Journal of Hydrology. (153), 1-21.
• Zrinji, Z. and Burn, D. H. 1996. Regional flood frequen- cy with hierarchical region of influence, J. Water Resources Planning and Management, 122 (4), 245–252.