Limanlar ve suyolları emniyet değerlendirmesi (LVSED) yöntemini kullanarak İstanbul Boğazı risk değerlendirmesi

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 4, 730 - 738, 17.08.2018

Bekir Şahin , Yupo Chan

Öz

Limanlar ve suyolları emniyet değerlendirmesi
(LVSED), risk analizinin ve yönetiminin eş zamanlı olarak yapıldığı AHP tabanlı
kapsamlı ve karmaşık bir Delfi yöntemdir. Öncelikle denizcilik alanı için geliştirilen
LVSED’in, diğer alanlardaki risk analizi uygulamalarına da genişletilmesi
gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmanın ilk amacı, LVSED sürecini tanıtmak ve
metodolojisini akademik yazına kazandırmaktır. Bu çalışmada LVSED’in önemi
gösterilmiş ve ileride geliştirilmesi için inovatif öneriler verilmiştir.
İkinci olarak seyir risklerini elde etmek ve alınan tedbirlerin verimliliğini
ölçmek için PAWSA metodu İstanbul Boğazı’na uygulanmıştır. Seyir durumları,
gemi kondisyonları, trafik yoğunluğu ve suyolu karakteristiği risklerini analiz
etmektedir. Son olarak, deniz kazalarını minimize etmek ve yeni karşı önlemler
ortaya koyarak seyir emniyetini artırmak amaçlanmaktadır. İstanbul Boğazı,
dünyada seyri en zorlarından biri ve dünyanın en dar kanalıdır. Stratejik ve coğrafik
lokasyonundan dolayı İstanbul Boğazı yoğun bir trafiğe sahiptir. Yıllık
istatistiklere göre, trafik yoğunluğu Süveyş Kanalı’ndan iki kat, Panama
Kanalı’ndan üç kat daha fazladır. Yoğun yerel trafiğin yanında, Boğaz toplam
tonajı 600 milyon olan yaklaşık olarak 50.000 uluslararası gemi tarafından
kullanılmaktadır. Istanbul’da 15 milyon insan yaşamakta ve hergün 300.000 kişi
İstanbul Boğazını kullanarak Asya’dan Avrupa’ya seyehat etmektedir. Dolayısıyla
İstanbul Boğazı deniz taşımacılığı için güvenelir bir metot ile kapsamlı bir
risk analizinin yapılması gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Risk analizi, İstanbul boğazı, Risk yönetimi, Delfi yöntemi, LVSED

Risk assessment of the Istanbul Strait by using Ports and Waterways Safety Assessment (PAWSA) method

Öz

Ports
and Waterways Safety Assessment (PAWSA) is a comprehensive and sophisticated
AHP-based Delphi method in which risk analysis and risk management are handled
simultaneously. PAWSA has primarily developed for maritime domain, and there is
a need to extend such risk analyses to the other fields. First aim of this study
is to introduce PAWSA process and to add its methodology to existing academic
literature. Significance of PAWSA is exhibited and innovative suggestions for
further developments are given in this study. Secondly, PAWSA method is
employed for Istanbul Strait to obtain the levels of navigational risks and to
measure effectiveness of counter actions. It analyses risks of navigation
situations, the conditions of vessels, traffic intensity and waterway
characteristics. Ultimately, it is aimed to minimize the marine incidents and
increase navigational safety by introducing new counter actions. The Istanbul
Strait is one of the most difficult-to-navigate and the narrowest international
waterway in the world. The Istanbul Strait has a dense traffic because of its geographical
and strategic location. According to annual statistics, traffic density is two
times more than the Suez Canal and three times more than the Panama Canal.
Besides the heavy local traffic, the Strait is used by approximately 50.000
international vessels with a total gross tonnage of 600 million. 15 million
people live in Istanbul and 300.000 people are transported daily from Asia to
Europe using Istanbul Strait. A comprehensive risk analysis by a convenient
method for the Istanbul Strait is therefore required for safe maritime
transportation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Risk analysis, Istanbul strait, Risk management, Delphi method, PAWSA

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