Hava durumu verilerinin kısa dönem elektrik yük tahmini üzerine etkileri

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 32 Sayı: 1

Murat Ünlü , Habil Ergen

Öz

Elektrik tüketim talebinin doğru bir şekilde tahmin edilmesi, enerji şirketleri için planlama ve kaynak yönetimi açısından büyük bir öneme sahiptir ve bu nedenle, hava durumunun elektrik yük tahminine olan etkilerinin tam olarak belirlenmesi gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmada, hava durumunun kısa dönem elektrik yük tahmini üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Catboost, LightGBM ve XGBoost gibi güçlü makine öğrenmesi modelleri ile geçmiş yük verileri, gün özellikleri ve tatil günleri gibi bağımsız değişkenlerle birleştirilerek elektrik yük tahmini yapılmıştır. İlk olarak hava durumu verileri hariç tutularak tahmin yapılmış, ardından hava durumu verileri eklenerek modellerin performansları karşılaştırılmıştır. Modellerin performans değerlendirmesi için ortalama mutlak yüzdesel hata (MAPE), ortalama karesel hata (MSE) ve ortalama mutlak hata (MAE) kullanılmıştır. Bir yıl boyunca modellerin günlük performansı ölçülmüştür. Hava durumu verilerinin veri setine eklenmesiyle birlikte MAPE değerlerinde LightGBM modelinde %3,213, XGBoost modelinde %3,404 ve CatBoost modelinde %6,671 performans iyileşmesi olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kısa dönem yük tahmini , Hava durumu , Makine öğrenmesi , MAPE

The effects of weather data on short-term electricity load forecasting

Öz

Accurate estimation of electricity consumption demand is of great importance for energy companies in terms of planning and resource management, and therefore, it is necessary to fully determine the effects of weather conditions on electricity load estimation. In this study, the effects of weather conditions on short-term electricity load estimation were investigated. Electric load estimation was performed by combining historical load data with independent variables such as day characteristics and holidays with a powerful machine learning model such as CatBoost, LightGBM and XGBoost. First, estimation was performed by excluding weather data, and then the performances of the models were compared by adding weather data. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) were used to evaluate the performance of the models. Daily performance of the models was measured for a year. With the addition of weather data to the dataset, MAPE values were found to improve by 3.213% for the LightGBM model, 3.404% for the XGBoost model and 6.671% for the CatBoost model.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Short-term load estimation , Weather , Machine learning , MAPE

Kaynakça

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