Veriye Dayalı Simülasyon Yoluyla Arktik Bölgesindeki Göç Eğilimlerinin Analizi

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 13 Sayı: Özel Sayı, 162 - 174, 10.10.2024

Mucahit Aydemir

Öz

Bu çalışma kapsamında Ajan Tabanlı Modelleme (ABM) olarak bilinen ve son zamanlarda geliştirilen bir teknik benimsenerek, Arktik bölgelerde çevresel krizler ile göç eğilimleri arasındaki bağlantı araştırılmıştır. Bu durum, gerçek dünyadaki sosyal karmaşıklıkları yansıtan sağlam bir zemin oluşturmayı gerektirdiğinden, çalışma kapsamında Arktik bölgesi; Alaska, İskandinav ve Rus Arktik olmak üzere üçe ayrılmıştır. Simülasyonlarda kullanılan tüm değerler, yakın zamanda yayımlanan raporlar arasından seçilen gerçek emprik veriler kullanılarak hazırlanmıştır. Ayrıca, 'çevresel stres' olarak adlandırılan ve eriyen buzul oranları, deniz buzu kapsamı, sıcaklık eğilimi ve permafrost kaybı gibi değerleri içeren kapsamlı bir kategori oluşturulmuş ve simülasyonlarda kullanılmıştır. Daha gerçekçi sonuç elde etmek amacıyla, simülasyon kapsamındaki ‘turtles’ (bu alanlarda yaşayan bireyler), yıllık gelir seviyeleri, yaş, cinsiyet ve eğitim seviyelerine gibi sosyo-demografik değişkenler ile farklılaştırılmıştır. Aynı zamanda, Arktik bölgelere gelen göç oranları ile hükümetlerin çevresel krizlere karşı önlemleri göz önünde bulundurularak kapsamlı ve titiz bir simülasyon ortamı tasarlanmıştır. ABM tekniği, bu araştırmaya, bireysel eylemlerin ve etkileşimlerin her zaman tahmin edilemeyen karmaşık sonuçlarına ulaşmayı sağlamıştır. Bu nedenle, parametrelere duyarlılık testi uygulanarak ve çeşitli senaryolar üzerinde çalışılarak, geleceğe yönelik tahminler yapılmıştır. Simülasyon sonuçlarına göre, 2050 yılına kadar Rusya ve Alaska'dan orta düzeyde göç çıkışlarının gerçekleşeceği ve durumun 2070-2100 yılları arasında daha da şiddetleneceği belirlenmiştir. Ancak, daha güçlü önlemler ve adaptasyon nedeniyle İskandinav Arktik bölgesinin nispeten daha istikrarlı kalacağı, ancak yine de ısınan sıcaklıklar ve deniz buzu kaybı nedeniyle bir miktar göç göreceği tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, özellikle Rus Arktik bölgesi gibi sosyoekonomik kaynaklardan nispeten daha yoksun bölgeler için, yerel sorunları küresel düzeyde azaltma stratejileriyle birleştiren 'çok seviyeli müdahale' yaklaşımına ihtiyacını vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Göç, Simulasyon, Ajan Temelli Modelleme, Arktik

Analysing Migration Trends in the Arctic Region Through Data-Driven Simulation

Öz

Adopting a recently developed technique, Agent-Based Modelling (ABM), this paper aims to make estimations on the linkage between environmental crises and migration trends in Arctic regions. However, such a task requires setting a firm ground reflecting the real world social complexities. Thus, the Artic region is divided into three as Alaska, Nordic and Russian Arctic. Then, all the values used in simulations are aligned with real world empirical data most of which are chosen among reports which are recently published. Then, an overarching category called ‘environmental stress’ including the melting ice rate, sea ice extent, temperature trend and permafrost loss. Also, the turtles (meaning the individuals living in these areas) are differentiated based on their socio-demographic variables such as annual income levels, age, gender and education levels. Also, by adding the the inflow migration rates to the Arctic regions and governments measures against environmental crises into account, a comprehensive and rigourous simulation setting is desined. The ABM technique captures how individual actions and interactions lead to complex, emergent system-wide patterns that are not always predictable from the starting conditions or simple aggregation of behaviors. As such, by operating sensitivity testing to the paramaters and working on varied scenarious, the model enabled the research make future estimations. The results show that moderate migration outflows from Russia and Alaska by 2050, with the situation becoming more severe by 2070–2100. However, the Nordic Arctic will remain relatively stable due to stronger governance and adaptation, but even this region will see some migration due to warming temperatures and sea ice loss. This results underscores the need for a sort of ‘multi-level governance’ approaches that combine local adaptation with global mitigation strategies especially for regions lacking socio-economic resources such as the Russian Arctic.

Anahtar Kelimeler

simulation, Agent-Based Modelling, Arctic region, migration

Kaynakça

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