KRİPTO PARA POLİTİKASI BELİRSİZLİĞİ BİTCOİN FİYATININ BELİRLEYİCİSİ MİDİR?

Öz

Bu çalışma, “Kripto Para Birimi Politika Belirsizliği (UCRY Politikası) Bitcoin fiyatının (BTC) belirleyicisi midir?” sorusuna cevap bulmaya çalışmaktadır. Ayrıca, bu çalışma UCRY Politikasının yanı sıra Bitcoin'in dolaşımdaki hızı (BC), Bitcoin'in hesaplama gücü (HR), popülerlik (PO) ve döviz kuru gibi kontrol değişkenlerinin BTC hareketleri için açıklayıcı değişkenler olarak kullanmaktadır. Çalışmada, 30 Aralık 2013-21 Şubat 2021 dönem olarak belirlenmiş ve haftalık verilerle inceleme yapılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiyi tespit etmek için ARDL sınır testi yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Ampirik bulgulara göre, bu çalışma UCRY Politikasının BTC için gerekli olduğunu göstermektedir. UCRY Politikası ile BTC arasında negatif bir ilişki vardır. Diğer değişkenler sabit tutulduğunda, UCRY Politikası arttığında BTC azalmaktadır. Ayrıca bu çalışma, kontrol değişkenlerinin BTC'nin belirleyicileri olarak kullanılabileceğini göstermektedir. Uzun vadede, BC ve HR, BTC ile önemli, pozitif bir ilişkisi vardır. EX'in BTC ile önemli, olumsuz bir ilişkisi vardır. PO'nun kısa vadede BTC ile önemli, pozitif bir ilişkisi vardır. Ayrıca bu çalışma, UCRY Politikasının Bitcoin için bir tür belirsizlik endeksi olarak kullanılabileceğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Bitcoin
• Kripto Para Politika Belirsizliği
• Bitcoin Fiyatının Belirleyicileri

IS THE CRYPTOCURRENCY POLICY UNCERTAINTY A DETERMINANT OF BITCOIN’S PRICE?

Öz

This study attempts to answer the question: “Is the Cryptocurrency Policy Uncertainty (UCRY Policy) a determinant of the Bitcoin’s price (BTC)?”. Besides, this study uses these factors as explanatory variables for the BTC movements alongside the UCRY Policy and control variables such as the velocity of the Bitcoin in circulation (BC), the computational power of Bitcoin (HR), popularity (PO), and exchange rate (EX). In the study, December 30, 2013- February 21, 2021, was determined as the term and weekly data were investigated. The ARDL bounds testing method was used to determine the relationship between the variables. According to empirical findings, this study suggests that the UCRY Policy is essential to the BTC. There is a negative relationship between UCRY Policy and BTC. When UCRY Policy increases, BTC decreases, holding other variables constant. Besides, this study shows that control variables can be used as determinants of BTC. In long run, BC and HR have a significant, positive relationship with BTC. The EX has a significant, negative relationship with BTC. The PO has a significant, positive relationship with BTC in the short run. In addition, this study demonstrates that UCRY Policy can be used as a type of uncertainty index for Bitcoin.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Bitcoin
• Cryptocurrency Policy Uncertainty
• Determinants of Bitcoin’s Price

Kaynakça

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