THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FINANCIAL GLOBALIZATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: TURKEY'S EXPERIENCE

Öz

This study aims to examine the effects of financial globalization on environmental degradation for Turkey, with annual data covering the period 1970-2017. Although the EKC hypothesis has been examined using a variety of financial variables in the literature, no study has yet been found that deals with these variables as a whole in the Turkish sample. This is the first study to examine the relationship between financial globalization and the environment as a composite and comprehensive variable in the framework of the EKC hypothesis. Increasing commercial activities such as imports and exports are considered the engine of economic growth. However, the sustainability of trade in countries with a savings deficit such as Turkey is more dependent on financial markets. Because structural transformations occurred in the Turkish economy during periods of economic liberalization with an increasing effect of globalization. The possible relationships between the variables were investigated by using the Gregory-Hansen structural break cointegration test. The Fully Modified Least Squares Method (FMOLS), Dynamic Least Squares Method (DOLS), and Canonical Co-integrated Regression (CCR) estimated long-run coefficients. Finally, one of the most frequent methodologies, ARDL, was utilized to perform comparisons and verify robustness. According to the Gregory-Hansen structural break cointegration test results, there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the variables. When the long-term coefficients are estimated, it is seen that the results support the environmental Kuznets hypothesis. Furthermore, a 1% increase in financial globalization has been observed to boost CO2 emissions by some 0.16% in the long term. The ARDL approach also validated this finding.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Financial globalization
• Environmental Kuznets curve
• Gregory-Hansen structural break cointegration test

FİNANSAL KÜRESELLEŞME VE ÇEVRE İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Bu çalışma Türkiye için finansal küreselleşmenin çevresel bozulma üzerindeki etkilerinin, 1970-2017 dönemini kapsayan yıllık verilerle incelenmesini amaçlamıştır. Literatürde birçok farklı finansal değişken ile EKC hipotezi test edilmiş olsa da bu değişkenleri Türkiye örnekleminde bir bütün halinde ele alan herhangi bir çalışmaya henüz rastlanılmamıştır. Bu bağlamda, bu çalışma kompozit ve kapsamlı bir değişken olan finansal küreselleşme ile çevre ilişkisini EKC hipotezi bağlamında test eden ilk çalışma özelliği taşımaktadır. İthalat ve ihracat gibi artan ticari faaliyetler ekonomik büyümenin motoru olarak kabul edilmektedir. Ancak Türkiye gibi tasarruf açığı olan ülkelerde ticaretin sürdürülebilirliği daha çok finansal piyasalara bağımlıdır. Değişkenler arasındaki olası ilişkiler Gregory-Hansen yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme testi kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Uzun dönem katsayıları Tam Değiştirilmiş En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi (FMOLS), Dinamik En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi (DOLS) ve Kanonik Eş-bütünleşik Regresyon (CCR) ile tahmin edilmiştir. Son olarak, en yaygın kullanılan yöntemlerden biri olan ARDL, karşılaştırma yapmak ve sonuçları güçlendirmek için kullanılmıştır. Gregory-Hansen yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme testi sonuçlarına göre değişkenler arasında uzun dönemde eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunmaktadır. Uzun dönem katsayıları incelendiğinde, sonuçların çevresel kuznets hipotezini desteklediğini göstermektedir. Ayrıca, finansal küreselleşmedeki %1'lik bir artışın, uzun vadede CO2 emisyonlarını yaklaşık %0,16 oranında artırdığı gözlemlenmiştir. ARDL yaklaşımı da bu bulguyu doğrulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal Küreselleşme
• Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi
• Gregory-Hansen Yapısal Kırılmalı Eşbütünleşme Testi

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