EKONOMİK BÜYÜME BÜTÇE DENGESİ İLİŞKİSİNDE SİYASİ İSTİKRARIN ROLÜ

Öz

Çalışmada, ekonomik büyüme-bütçe dengesi ilişkisinde siyasi istikrarın rolü panel eşik regresyon analizi kullanılarak incelenmektedir. Bu bağlamda, Avrupa Birliği ülkeleri ve Türkiye’nin 2002-2020 dönemine ait yıllık verileri analiz için kullanılmaktadır. Sabit etkiler modelinin sonuçları, ekonomik büyüme ile bütçe dengesi arasındaki ilişkinin pozitif ve doğrusal olmadığını göstermektedir. Panel eşik regresyon analizi sonuçları ise, bütçe dengesi ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinde siyasi istikrarın önemli olduğunu vurgulamaktadır. Eşik değerinin altında ve üzerinde gerçekleşen bütçe dengesindeki iyileşmeler, iktisadi büyümeyi olumlu etkilemektedir. Bununla birlikte, ülkelerdeki siyasi istikrarın eşik değerin altında olduğu durumda gerçekleşen bütçe dengesindeki iyileşmelerin iktisadi büyümedeki olumlu etkisinin daha güçlü olduğu gözlemlenmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Bütçe dengesi
• Ekonomik büyüme
• Siyasi istikrar

THE ROLE OF POLITICAL STABILITY IN THE RELATIONSHIP OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND BUDGET BALANCE

Öz

In the study, the role of political stability in the economic growth-budget balance relationship is examined using panel threshold regression analysis. In this context, annual data of the European Union countries and Türkiye for the period 2002- 2020 are used for analysis. The results of the fixed effects model show that the relationship between economic growth and budget balance is positive and non-linear. Panel threshold regression analysis results emphasize that political stability is important in the relationship between budget balance and economic growth. Improvements in the budget balance below and above the threshold value positively affect economic growth. However, it is observed that the positive effect of improvements in budget balance on economic growth is stronger when the political stability in the countries is below the threshold value.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Budget balance
• Economic growth
• Political stability

Kaynakça

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