İLK VE İKİNCİ EL KONUT TALEBİNDE YAKINSAMA HIPOTEZİNİN ANALİZİ: 26 ALT BÖLGE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Türkiye’nin 26 alt bölgesinin ilk ve ikinci el konut talebi yakınsama hipotezi ile incelenmiştir. Çalışmada, 2013 Ocak-2023 Mart dönemine ait aylık zaman serileri kullanılmıştır. Bölgeler arası konut talebi yakınsama hipotezi koşullu ve koşulsuz tahmin edilmiştir. Analizlerde dinamik panel sistem GMM yaklaşımından yararlanılmıştır. İlk el konut talebine ait koşulsuz yakınsama modeli analizi sonucunda; ilk el konut satışına ait gecikmeli değerlerin konut talebini pozitif etkilediği belirlenmiştir. Koşulsuz yakınsama modelinde ise konut fiyatı ile hane geliri değişkeni ilk el konut talebini pozitif etkilerken ikinci el konut satış miktarı ise ilk el konut talebini negatif etkilemektedir. İkinci el konut satışına ait yakınsama hipotezi bulgularına göre ise koşulsuz modelde; ikinci el konut satışının gecikmeli değerleri ikinci el konut talebini pozitif etkilemektedir. Koşullu modellerde yer alan hane geliri değişkeni ikinci el konut talebini pozitif ilk el konut satışı değişkenini ise negatif etkilemektedir. İkinci el konut satışı yakınsama modelindeki konut fiyatı değişkeni ise istatistiki olarak anlamsızdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Talep
• yakınsama
• konut
• sistem GMM

ANALYSIS OF THE CONVERGENCE HYPOTHESIS IN THE FIRST AND SECOND-HAND HOUSING DEMAND: 26 SUB-REGIONAL EXAMPLES

Öz

The demand for the first and second-hand housing in Türkiye's 26 sub-regions was examined with the convergence hypothesis. In the study, monthly time series for the period between January 2013 and March 2023 were used. The first and secondhand housing demand was estimated with the conditional and unconditional convergence hypothesis. Dynamic panel system GMM approach was used in the analyses. As a result of the unconditional convergence model analysis of the first-hand housing demand; It has been determined that delayed values of the first-hand home sales positively affect housing demand. In the unconditional convergence model, the house price and household income variables positively affect the first-hand house demand, while the amount of second-hand house sales negatively affects the first-hand house demand. According to the convergence hypothesis findings regarding second-hand house sales, the lagged value of the second-hand house sales in the unconditional model positively affects the second-hand house demand. The household income variable in the conditional models has a positive effect on the second-hand house demand, and the first-hand house sales variable has a negative effect. The house price variable in the second-hand house sales convergence model is statistically insignificant.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Demand
• convergence
• house
• system GMM

Kaynakça

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