KONUT İŞLEM HACİMLERİ ARACILIĞIYLA KONUT PİYASASININ MEKANSAL ANALİZİ: MENTEŞE, MUĞLA

Öz

Yatırımcı kararları, yerel ve merkezi hükümet stratejileri, hanehalkı hareketliliği kalıpları arasında karşılıklı bir ilişki sonucunda şekillenen konut işlemlerinin hem makro hem de mikro ölçekte çeşitli yansımaları bulunmaktadır. Metropolitan bölgede kentsel gelişim kalıplarına, hanehalklarının sosyo-ekonomik özelliklerine, ikamet süresine, yerel özelliklere ve konut kalitesine göre değişen ve bu nitelikleri değiştiren konut işlemleri mekansal disiplinler açısından büyük önem taşımaktadır. Ancak bağlantısının güçlülüğüne rağmen mekânsal disiplinler açısından yadsınamaz bir öneme sahip olan konut işlemleri konusunda yürütülen çalışmalar oldukça sınırlıdır. Bu çalışma, Menteşe'nin konut piyasası dinamiklerini konut işlemleri aracılığıyla keşfetmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Üç farklı veri seti kullanmaktadır (Açık Sokak Haritası (i), Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu tarafından toplanan hane, konut ve ofis verileri (ii), Tapu ve Kadastro Müdürlüğü tarafından toplanan tapu işlem istatistikleri (iii)). Çalışmada yöntem olarak mekânsal heterojenlik için Moran’s I ve mekânsal rastgelelik için LISA uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, çeperde yer alan mahallelerin mesafe açısından şehir merkezine çok yakın olmasına rağmen konut piyasalarında merkeziliğin rolünü ve karma arazi kullanımının önemini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Konut İşlemleri
• Konut Satış Hacmi
• Satılık Konut
• Menteşe

SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF THE HOUSING MARKET THROUGH INVESTIGATING HOUSING TRANSACTION VOLUMES IN MENTEŞE, MUĞLA

Öz

As there is a reciprocal relationship between the patterns of investor decisions, local and central government strategies, household mobility, and housing transactions have repercussions on both macro and micro scales. Housing transactions within a metropolitan region can alter certain neighbourhood dynamics through the cycle of housing sales regarding urban development patterns, socio-economic characteristics of the residents, tenure type, neighbourhood, and housing quality. Even though the connection between neighbourhood dynamics and housing transactions is undeniable for spatial disciplines, there are very limited studies for that matter. This study aims to explore the housing market dynamics of Menteşe via housing transactions. It employs three different datasets (Open Street Map (i), Household, housing and office data collected by the Turkish Statistical Institute (ii), Title deed transaction statistics by The Directorate of Land Registry and Cadastre (iii)). For spatial heterogeneity, Moran’s I, and spatial randomness, a local indicator of spatial association (LISA) has been applied. The findings revealed the role of centrality and the importance of mixed land use in housing markets even though all the neighborhoods on the periphery are very close to the city center in terms of distance.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Housing Transactions
• Housing Sales Volume
• Owner-occupied Housing
• Menteşe

Kaynakça

1. Akçura, N. (1993). “Muğla’da Geleceğe Yönelik Çabalar: Tarihi Çevre Koruması”, Tarih içinde Muğla, (Ed: I. Teke-li), Middle East Technical University, Faculty of Architecture Press, Ankara.
2. Aksoy Khurami, E. and Özdemir Sarı, Ö. B. (2022). “Trends in housing markets during the economic crisis and Covid‑19 pandemic: Turkish case”, Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, 6, 1159-1175.
3. Aktüre, S. (1993). “19. Yüzyılda Muğla”, Tarih içinde Muğla, (Ed: I. Tekeli), Middle East Technical University, Facul-ty of Architecture Press, Ankara.
4. Aliefendioglu, Y., Bazame, R. and Tanrivermis, H. (2019). Analysis of Housing Turnover Frequency and the Factors Affecting Residential Mobility: A Case of Çankaya District of Ankara Province, Turkey. ERES, European Real Estate Society (ERES). Retrieved October 10, 2023, https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/arzwpaper/eres2019_5f261.htm.
5. Anselin, L. (1998). “Exploratory spatial data analysis in a geocomputational environment”, Geocomputation: A Primer, (Ed: P. A. Longley, S. M. Brooks, R. McDonnell and W. MacMillan), Wiley, New York, Chichester, Toronto and Brisbane.
6. Atasoy, T. and Tanrıvermiş, H. (2021). “Türkiye’de konut kredisi hacmi ile seçilmiş makroekonomik faktörler arasindaki ilişkinin değerlendirilmesi”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 59, 461-484.
7. Batog, B. and Forys, I. (2014). “Spatial analysis of housing market transactions in Szczecin”, Acta Universitatis Lodziensis Folia Oeconomica, 6/309, 31-43.
8. Can, A. (1998). “GIS and Spatial Analysis of Housing and Mortgage Markets”, Journal of Housing Research, 9/1, 61-86.

9. Cipollinia, A. and Parla, F. (2020). “Housing market shocks in Italy: A GVAR approach”, Journal of Housing Eco-nomics, 101707.
10. Clayton, J., Miller, N. and Peng, L. (2010). “Price-volume correlation in the housing market: causality and comovements”, J Real Estate Finance Econ, 40/1, 14-40.
11. Coşkun, Y. (2016). “Konut Fiyatları ve Yatırımı: Türkiye için Bir Analiz”, Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9/2, 201-217.
12. Coulter, R., van Ham, M. and Feijten, P. (2011). “A longitudinal analysis of moving desires, expectations and actu-al moving behaviour”, Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 43/11, 2742-2760.
13. de Wit, E. R., Englund, P. and Francke, M. K. (2013). “Price and transaction volume in the Dutch housing market”, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 43, 220-241.
14. Dieleman, F. M., Clark, W. A. V. and Deurloo, M. C. (2000). “The geography of residential turnover in twenty-seven large US Metropolitan Housing Markets, 1985-95”, Urban Studies, 37/2, 223-245.
15. Ding, L. and Hwang, J. (2020). “Effects of gentrification on homeowners: Evidence from a natural experiment”, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 83, 103536.
16. Erdoğan, S. and Memduhoğlu, A. (2019). “A spatiotemporal exploratory analysis of real estate sales in Turkey using GIS”, Journal of European Real Estate Research, 12/2, 207-226.
17. Fisher, J., Gatzlaff, D., Geltner, D., and Haurin, D. (2004). “An analysis of the determinants of transaction frequen-cy of institutional commercial real estate investment property”, Real Estate Economics, 32/2, 239-264.
18. Genesove, D. and Mayer, C. J. (1994). “Equity and time to sale in the real estate market”. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, Working Paper No. 4861. Retrieved October 20, 2023, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=227955.
19. Getis, A. and Ord, J.K. (1992), “The analysis of spatial association by use of distance statistics”, Geographical Analysis, 24/3, 189-206.
20. Gürbüzer, M. R. and Aksoy Khurami, E.. (2023). “Sosyal Konut ve İdare Konut Projelerinde El Değiştirme: Sivas, Merkez İlçe Örneği”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 23/1, 1-28.
21. Henley, A. (1998). “Residential mobility, housing equity, and the labour market”, The Economic Journal, 108/447, 414-427.
22. Hill, R. J., Pfeifer, N., Steurer, M. and Trojanek, R. (2023). “Warning: Some transaction prices can be detrimental to your house price index”, The Review of Income and Wealth (online first).
23. Jia, S. and Ke, Q. (2023). “Heterogonous buyers and housing transaction prices: a case study of Guangzhou, Chi-na”, Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 38, 1099-1118.
24. Kim, T.K. and Horner, M. W. (2003). “Exploring spatial effects on urban housing duration”, Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 35/8, 1415-1429.
25. Koca, F. (2015). “Muğla’da Kentsel Büyüme, Çeper-Kuşak Oluşumu ve Değişen Kent Formu”, Türkiye Kentsel Morfoloji Ağı, I. Kentsel Morfoloji Sempozyumu Bildiriler Kitabı, 217-230.
26. Ma, E. and Zubairy, S. (2021). “Homeownership and housing transitions: Explaining the demographic composi-tion”, International Economic Review, 62/2, 599-638.
27. Margulis, H. (2001). “Household mobility, housing traits, public goods, and school quality in Cleveland's metro-politan statistical area”, Urban Affairs Review, 36, 646-677.
28. Muti, A. (2020). “Tapu Harç Oranlarındaki İndirimin Konut Satışları Üzerine Etkisinin Araştırılması”, Atatürk Ün-iversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 24, 277-287.
29. Oikarinen, E. (2012). “Empirical evidence on the reaction speeds of housing prices and sales to demand shocks”, Journal of Housing Economics, 21/1, 41-54.
30. Ortalo-Magne, F. and Rady, S. (2004). “Housing transactions and macroeconomic fluctuations: a case study of England and Wales”, Journal of Housing Economics, 13, 287-303.
31. Osmay, S (1993). “1950-1987 Döneminde Muğla Kenti”, Tarih içinde Muğla, (Ed: I. Tekeli), Middle East Technical University, Faculty of Architecture Press, Ankara.
32. Özdemir Sarı, Ö. B. (2022). “The Turkish housing system: An overview”. Housing in Turkey: Policy, Planning, Prac-tice, (Ed: Ö. B. Özdemir Sarı, E. Aksoy Khurami, N. Uzun), Routledge, London.
33. Quigley, J. M. and Weinberg, D. H. (1977). “Intra-urban residential mobility: A review and synthesis”, Interna-tional Regional Science Review, 2/1, 41-66.
34. Rohe, W. M. and Stewart, L. S. (1996). “Homeownership and neighborhood stability”, Housing Policy Debate, 7/1, 37-81.
35. Rolnik, R. (2013). “Late neoliberalism: The financialization of Homeownership and Housing Rights”, International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 37/3, 1058-1066.
36. Sarıoğlu Erdoğdu, G. P. (2022). “Limitations of housing research data in Turkey and Proposals for a better sys-tem”, Housing in Turkey: Policy, Planning, Practice, (Ed: Ö. B. Özdemir Sarı, E. Aksoy Khurami, N. Uzun), Routledge, London.
37. Somerville, T., Wang, L. and Yang, Y. (2020). “Using purchase restrictions to cool housing markets: A within-market analysis”, Journal of Urban Economics, 115, 103189.
38. Subaşı, S. Ö. and Baycan, T. (2022). “Impacts of the COVID‑19 pandemic on private rental housing prices in Tur-key”, Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, 6/3, 1177-1193.
39. TCMB. 2023. Housing Price Index. Retrieved December 23, 2023, https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds /serieMarket/collapse_26/5949/DataGroup/turkish/bie_hkfe/.
40. Tsai, I. C. (2014). “Ripple effect in house prices and trading volume in the UK housing market: new viewpoint and evidence”, Economic Modelling, 40, 68-75.
41. TURKSTAT. 2000. General Population Census Database. Retrieved December 22, 2023, https://biruni.tuik.gov. tr/nufusapp/idari.zul.
42. TURKSTAT. 2021. Building and Housing Qualifications Survey 2021. Micro Data Set. Ankara: Turkish Statistical Institute.
43. TURKSTAT. 2023. Construction and Housing Statistics. Retrieved December 22, 2023, https://biruni.tuik.gov. tr/medas/?kn=73&locale=tr.
44. van Ham, M. and Feijten, P. (2008). “Who wants to leave the neighbourhood? The effects of being different from the neighbourhood population on wishes to move”, Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 40, 1151-1170.
45. Weinberg, D. H. (1979). “The determinants of intra-urban household mobility”, Regional Science and Urban Eco-nomics, 9/2-3, 219-246.