CHINA-US MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS AND TÜRKİYE: GLOBAL VAR ANALYSIS

Öz

The high level of integration in the global economy in terms of trade, financial and factor markets can lead to the transmission of economic problems in one country to other countries. Economic disruptions or policy differences (shocks) in the US and China, the world's two largest economies, may also affect other countries economically and financially. This study analyzes how positive shocks to inflation, interest rates, output gap, and policy uncertainty variables in the US and China, globally recognized as benchmarks in terms of economic and financial indicators, affect the Turkish economy using the global VAR method over the period 1980:Q1-2022:Q4. Additionally, the effects of an increase in global policy uncertainty and the global real exchange rate in Türkiye are also included in the analysis. According to the results of the analyses, the impact in Türkiye is observed through inflation, interest rates, output gap, exchange rate, real GDP, and policy uncertainty indicators. The results indicate that shocks in China are transmitted to the Turkish economy through the trade channel. Moreover, China's impact on Turkey through the real output channel is stronger than the US. It is found that the financial tightening caused by interest rate hikes in these countries does not impact the Turkish economy. Even if the financial tightening in the US does not impact Türkiye, output gap shocks seem to create a financial tightening effect in Türkiye.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Global shocks
• Turkish Economy
• GVAR

ÇİN-ABD MAKROEKONOMİK ŞOKLARI VE TÜRKİYE: GLOBAL VAR ANALİZİ

Öz

Ticaret, finans ve faktör piyasaları açısından küresel ekonomideki yüksek entegrasyon düzeyi, bir ülkedeki ekonomik sorunların diğer ülkelere aktarılmasına yol açabilmektedir. Dünya’nın en büyük iki ekonomisi olan ABD ve Çin’deki ekonomik bozulmalar veya politika farklılaşmaları (şoklar) diğer ülkeleri ekonomik ve finansal olarak etkileyebilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, ekonomik ve finansal göstergeler açısından küresel ölçekte referans kabul edilen ABD ve Çin’de enflasyon, faiz oranları, çıktı açığı ve politika belirsizliği değişkenlerine gelen pozitif şokların Türkiye ekonomisini nasıl etkilediği global VAR yöntemi kullanılarak 1980:Ç1-2022:Ç4 dönemi için incelenmektedir. Ayrıca küresel politika belirsizliği ve küresel reel döviz kurundaki artışların Türkiye’ye etkisi de incelemeye dahil edilmektedir. Elde edilen analiz sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye’deki etkiler enflasyon, faiz oranı, çıktı açığı, döviz kuru, reel GSYH ve politika belirsizliği göstergeleri üzerinden izlenmektedir. Sonuçlar, Çin’deki şokların ticaret kanalı üzerinden Türkiye ekonomisine aktarıldığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca, reel üretim kanalı üzerinden Çin’in Türkiye üzerindeki etkisi ABD'ye kıyasla daha güçlüdür. Bu ülkelerdeki faiz artışlarının neden olacağı finansal sıkılaşmanın ise Türkiye ekonomisi üzerinde bir etkiye yol açmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır. ABD’deki finansal sıkılaşmanın Türkiye’de bir etkisi bulunmasa bile; çıktı açığı şoklarının Türkiye’de finansal sıkılaşma etkisi doğurduğu görülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Küresel şoklar
• Türkiye Ekonomisi
• GVAR

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