ALTIN FİYATLARININ TAHMİNİNDE MAKİNE ÖĞRENMESİ VE DERİN ÖĞRENME YAKLAŞIMLARI

Öz

Altın gerek reel gerekse finansal piyasalarda işlem gören önemli bir değer olarak tarih boyunca öncelikli konumunu sürdürmektedir. Bu çalışmada altın fiyatlarının tahmini makine öğrenmesi ve derin öğrenme algoritmaları ile gerçekleştirilmektedir. Analizler sonucunda en iyi tahmin performansına, rassal orman (random forest – RF) algoritması ile ulaşılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarının yorumlanabilmesi için öznitelik önemi (feature importance) ölçümü de gerçekleştirilmiştir. Buna göre altın fiyatlarının tahmininde en önemli değişkenler sırasıyla altın ile aynı emtia sınıfında yer alan gümüş ve ABD 10 yıllık faiz getirisi olarak belirlenmiştir. Altın fiyatlarının tahmini, bireysel yatırımcılar, kurumsal yatırımcılar ve merkez bankalarının altın rezervleri nedeniyle hükümetler açısından önemlidir. Altın piyasasında fiyatların tahmin edilebilmesi, ilgili piyasanın zayıf formda etkinliği konusunda şüphe uyandırmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Altın Fiyat Tahmini
• Derin Öğrenme
• Makine Öğrenmesi
• Öznitelik Önemi
• Piyasa Etkinliği

MACHINE LEARNING AND DEEP LEARNING APPROACHES IN FORECASTING GOLD PRICES

Öz

Gold has historically held a prominent position as a significant asset traded in both real and financial markets. In this study, gold price prediction is performed using machine learning and deep learning algorithms. The best predictive performance was achieved using the random forest (RF) algorithm. Feature importance measurements were also performed to interpret the analysis results. Accordingly, the most important variables in predicting gold prices were identified as silver, which is in the same commodity class as gold, and the US 10-year interest rate, respectively. Forecasting gold prices is important for individual investors, institutional investors, and governments due to the gold reserves held by central banks. The ability to predict prices in the gold market raises doubts about the weak-form efficiency of the relevant market.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Gold Price Prediction
• Deep Learning
• Machine Learning
• Feature Importance
• Market Efficiency

Kaynakça

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