EKONOMİK KARMAŞIKLIK VE KARBONDİOKSİT EMİSYONU ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: YÜKSEK EMİSYONLU ÜLKELERDEN AMPİRİK BULGULAR

Öz

Yüksek emisyona sahip ülkelerin ekonomik yapılarının çevresel etkilerinin doğru anlaşılması, küresel ısınmanın çözümüne yönelik politikalar için büyük önem taşır. Bu çalışma, 2023 yılında en yüksek CO2 emisyonuna sahip on ülke örnekleminde ekonomik karmaşıklık ve fosil yakıt tüketimi ile CO2 emisyonları arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. 1995-2022 döneminin ele alındığı panel veri analizinde, yatay kesit bağımlılığı ve eğim heterojenliği bulguları dikkate alınarak Pesaran’ın (2007) geliştirdiği yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan panel birim kök testi uygulanmış ve serilerin birinci farkta durağanlaştığı (I(1)) tespit edilmiştir. Bu doğrultuda gerçekleştirilen Westerlund (2007) eşbütünleşme testine göre değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki yoktur. Bai (2009) tarafından geliştirilen ve gözlemlenemeyen ortak faktörleri hesaba katan İnteraktif Sabit Etkiler tahmincisinden elde edilen bulgular ise kısa vadede ekonomik karmaşıklığın, CO2 emisyonları üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Analizde fosil yakıt tüketiminin emisyonları arttırıcı etkisi doğrulanmıştır. Dolayısıyla çalışma, yenilenebilir enerji yatırımlarının arttırılması görüşünü desteklemektedir. Politika yapıcılar karmaşık sektörlerde enerji verimliliğini arttırma ve enerji dönüşümünü hızlandırmaya odaklanmalıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik karmaşıklık
• Karbondioksit emisyonu
• Panel veri analizi

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY AND CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS: EMPIRICIAL FINDINGS FROM HIGH-EMISSION COUNTRIES

Öz

A precise understanding of the environmental impacts of the economic structures of high-emission countries is of great importance for policies aimed at addressing global warming. This study examines the relationship between economic complexity, fossil fuel consumption, and CO2 emissions in a sample of the ten countries with the highest CO2 emissions in 2023. In the panel data analysis covering the period 1995-2022, the panel unit root test developed by Pesaran (2007), which accounts for cross-sectional dependence, was applied, considering the findings of cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity, and it was determined that the series were stationary in the first difference (I(1)). According to the Westerlund (2007) cointegration test, there is no long-term relationship between the variables. The findings obtained from the Interactive Fixed Effects estimator developed by Bai (2009), which accounts for unobservable common factors, indicate that economic complexity has a statistically significant and positive effect on CO₂ emissions in the short run. The analysis also confirms the emissions-increasing effect of fossil fuel consumption. Therefore, the study supports the view that investments in renewable energy should be expanded. Policymakers should prioritize improving energy efficiency and accelerating the energy transition in highly complex sectors.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic complexity
• Carbon dioxide emissions
• Panel data analysis

Kaynakça

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