DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN MIST COUNTRIES: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Yıl 2023, Sayı: 57, 367 - 384, 18.07.2023

İlyas Bayar

https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1182911

Öz

Studies on institutions, which are one of the main determinants of economic growth, have been increasing intensively in recent years. In this context, despite many empirical and theoretical studies on the relationship between democracy and economic growth, there is no consensus about the effect of democracy on economic growth. This study analyzes the relationship between democracy and economic growth for MIST (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey) countries. Firstly, the cross-sectional dependence was examined in the study for the 1973–2021 period. The second generation panel unit root test (Pesaran CADF (2007)) was chosen because of the cross-sectional dependence among the series. The stationarity of the variables at I(1) is ensured. Having determined the cointegration relationship (Westerlund Durbin-H test (2008)) between the series, the Panel CCE estimator was used to estimate the cointegration coefficients. Kónya causality test was used for the causality between democracy and economic growth. It is found that an increase in the level of democracy boosts the economic growth. It is suggested that the MIST nations continue to undertake policies targeted at establishing democratic institutions that contribute to economic progress.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Democracy, Institutions, Economic Growth, Panel Data Analysis

MİST ÜLKELERİNDE DEMOKRASİ İLE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ

Öz

Ekonomik büyümenin temel belirleyicilerinden biri olan kurumlar üzerine yapılan çalışmalar son yıllarda yoğun bir biçimde artmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, demokrasi ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiye dönük birçok ampirik ve teorik çalışmaya rağmen demokrasinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki ne tür bir etki oluşturduğu konusunda ortak bir kanı bulunmamaktadır. Bu çalışmada, demokrasi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki MIST (Meksika, Endonezya, Güney Kore ve Türkiye) ülkeleri için analiz edilmiştir. 1973-2021 döneminin baz alındığı çalışmada öncelikle yatay kesit bağımlılığı incelenmiştir. Serilerde yatay kesit bağımlılığı nedeniyle ikinci kuşak panel birim kök testi (Pesaran CADF (2007)) seçilmiştir. Değişkenlerin I(1) mertebede durağanlıkları sağlanmıştır. Seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi (Westerlund Durbin-H test (2008)) tespit edildikten sonra eşbütünleşme katsayılarının tahmini için Panel CCE tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Demokrasi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi için Kónya Nedensellik sınaması yapılmıştır. Demokrasi seviyesindeki artışın ekonomik büyümeyi arttırdığı bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. MIST ülkelerinde ekonomik büyümeye katkı sağlayan demokratik kurumların inşasına dönük politika uygulamalarının sürdürülmesi önerilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Demokrasi, Kurumlar, Ekonomik Büyüme, Panel Veri Analizi

Kaynakça

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