SPATIAL INTERACTION OF UNDER-FIVE MORTALITY RATE AMONG PROVINCES IN TURKEY: SPATIAL PROBIT MODELS

Yıl 2023, Sayı: 58, 327 - 342, 08.09.2023

Nazife Zeynep Çakır , Ebru Çağlayan

https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1259311

Öz

Despite the rapid development shown in recent years, Turkey still lags behind many countries in terms of under-five mortality rate. As a matter of fact, it is known that there are still great inequalities in child mortality among provinces across the country. It is critical to determine the factors affecting the death rate in order to prevent the related problem. The studies to be carried out in this direction will pave the way for the development of strategies and policies that can be effective in reducing the mortality rate. In this direction, the aim of the study is to analyze the spatial interaction between provinces and the determinants of the under-five mortality rate in Turkey in 2019 by using spatial probit models. After determining the spatial dependence structure in the classical probit model, probit models with spatial delay (Spatial Autoregressive Model, SAR) and spatial error dependence (Spatial Error Model, SEM) have been estimated using the Approximate Likelihood Estimation method. As a result of the estimations, it has been concluded that per capita income, central government health expenditures and primary and secondary education graduation rates have a decreasing effect on under-five mortality rate.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Under-Five Mortality Rate, SAR Probit Model, SEM Probit Model, Approximate Likelihood Estimation Method

TÜRKİYE’DE İLLER ARASINDA BEŞ YAŞ ALTI ÇOCUK ÖLÜM HIZININ MEKÂNSAL ETKİLEŞİMİ: MEKÂNSAL PROBİT MODELLERİ

Öz

Beş yaş altı çocuk ölüm hızı konusunda, Türkiye özellikle son yıllarda gösterdiği hızlı gelişmeye rağmen hala birçok ülkenin gerisinde bulunmaktadır. Nitekim, ülke genelinde iller arasında çocuk ölümleri hususunda büyük eşitsizliklerin mevcut olduğu bilinmektedir. İlgili sorunun önüne geçilmesinde, ölüm hızını etkileyen faktörlerin belirlenmesi oldukça önem arz etmektedir. Bu yönde yapılacak çalışmalar ile, ölüm hızının düşüşünde etkili olabilecek strateji ve politikaların geliştirilmesinin yolu açılacaktır. Bu doğrultuda çalışmanın amacını, 2019 yılında Türkiye’de beş yaş altı çocuk ölüm hızının iller arasındaki mekânsal etkileşiminin ve belirleyicilerinin mekânsal probit modelleri kullanarak analiz edilmesi oluşturmaktadır. Klasik probit modelinde mekânsal bağımlılık yapısının tespit edilmesinin ardından, Yaklaşık Olabilirlik tahmin yöntemi (Approximate Likelihood Estimation) kullanılarak, mekânsal gecikme (Spatial Autoregressive Model, SAR) ve mekânsal hata bağımlığına (Spatial Error Model, SEM) sahip probit modelleri tahmin edilmiştir. Tahminler neticesinde, kişi başında düşen gelir, merkezi devlet sağlık harcamaları ile ilköğretim ve ortaöğretim mezun oranlarının, beş yaş altı çocuk ölüm hızının üzerinde etkili olduğu ve ölüm hızını azalttığı belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Beş Yaş Altı Çocuk Ölüm Hızı, SAR Probit Modeli, SEM Probit Modeli, Yaklaşık Olabilirlik Tahmin Yöntemi

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