THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: COINTEGRATION AND CAUSALITY APPROACHES

Yıl 2025, Sayı: 67, 177 - 193

Mahir Tosunoğlu , Halil Uçal

Öz

With its increasing population and growing economy, Türkiye's demand for energy consumption is increasing rapidly. This study contributes to the energy-economic growth literature by examining the relationship between real gross domestic product and electricity consumption by adding the determinants of the production function in Türkiye, such as labor and capital, and using annual data for the period 1988-2019. Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Test, Error Correction Mechanism and Granger Causality Test were used to evaluate the relationship between energy consumption (EC), economic growth (EG), labor, and capital in the long and short term. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between EG and EC. The error correction coefficient is significant, and a short-term deviation recovers within a period of 2.5 years and reaches the long-term balance. Moreover, a causal relationship from EC to EG was determined. This reveals that EC plays an important role in Türkiye's EG paradigm and supports the growth hypothesis. It is suggested that policies should prioritize increasing energy investments in Türkiye in order to promote stable economic growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, ARDL, ECM, Granger Causality

ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: EŞ BÜTÜNLEŞME VE NEDENSELLİK YAKLAŞIMLARI

Öz

Artan nüfus ve büyüyen ekonomisiyle Türkiye'nin enerji tüketimine olan talebi hızla artmaktadır. Bu çalışma, reel gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla ile elektrik tüketimi arasındaki ilişkiyi emek ve sermaye gibi Türkiye'deki üretim fonksiyonunun belirleyicilerini ekleyerek ve 1988-2019 döneminin yıllık verilerini kullanarak, enerji-ekonomik büyüme literatürüne katkıda bulunmaktır. Uzun ve kısa vadede enerji tüketimi (EC), ekonomik büyüme (EG), emek ve sermaye arasındaki ilişkiyi değerlendirmek için Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif Sınır Testi, Hata Düzeltme Mekanizması ve Granger-Nedensellik Testi kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, EG ile EC arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğu göstermektedir. Hata düzeltme katsayısı anlamlıdır ve kısa vadeli bir sapma 2,5 yıllık bir süre içinde düzelerek uzun vadeli dengeye kavuşur. EC'den EG'ye doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Bu, Türkiye'nin EG paradigmasında EC’nin önemli bir rol oynadığını ve büyüme hipotezini desteklediğini ortaya koymaktadır. İstikrarlı ekonomik büyümeyi teşvik etmek için politikaların Türkiye'de artan enerji yatırımlarını önceliklendirmesi önerilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik Büyüme, Enerji Tüketimi, ARDL, ECM, Granger Nedensellik

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